ATL : INVEST 90L - DISCUSSION

[KWT]

Yeah this one has pretty much 0 chance of being a TS being a July TS, probably won't see much development beyond the current point for the next 2-3 days, but once the whole complex links up and gets kicked westwards towards 40-50W things could get going.

[thetruesms]

In the pit of my stomach, I've got this same bad feeling that wxman57 vocalized earlier about the NE Caribbean, and then on to the Bahamas and Florida because of where it's at now. But really, this far out, I could construct a good number of scenarios that are just as plausible, with more twists thrown in as we're beginning to see interaction between our two areas of interest.

I'm going to be really interested in how the early stages of this one play out. We've got a couple genesis projects running this summer - I hope that they'll be able to get data on this one, though the distance may be prohibitive

[cycloneye]

The big question this afternoon is, if the wave will be designated as 91L and then drop 90L.

[KWT]

Hmmm given they are now putting this whole region under Code Yellow as one big region, I personally think they will keep 90L and just wait for the wave behind to interact with this region.

thetruesms, I was thinking that yesterday but actually I personally think the thread may end up further west, thats usually what occurs in La Nina, Dean was a perfect example of that.

Still I do agree the NE/E Caribbean obviously needs to watch, I doubt its north of at least the far east.

[cycloneye]

Is really big the circule now. It looks like the wave behind will take over.

[Aric Dunn]

I still find it so annoying that they have to black out the eastern atlantic satellite images like that .. you would think that they would extend to the coast.. i dont need to see africa lol hate looking at blurry over zoomed images... the Eumetsat is not much better in that region... it rather dumb if you ask me...

[KWT]

Yeah, the western wave has really slowed right down, only moved slightly it seems recently....

The westerly wave still has decent turning though it has to be said.

[Ivanhater]

I'm not sure...The Euro and other models favor the vort of 90L taking over in the end.

Then again, you have the GFS that never can combine and the eastern wave rides north of 90L and cause problems for each other. The transfer will take time but I do think it will occur and develop.

Track.....well I'm not touching that with a 10 foot pole yet

[Aric Dunn]

yeah yesterday I was surprised it was so small ... the other day I mentioned that the circle would be rather large due to the uncertainties ... but oh well

[Aric Dunn]

another thing probably already mentioned.. the models at this point are not useful at all for track because depending on where someone wants to put a best track will change what any particular model does with the big mess...

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, the western wave has really slowed right down, only moved slightly it seems recently....

The westerly wave still has decent turning though it has to be said.

yeah lol.. it moved slightly NE.. but it does seem to have a slightly better circ than yesterday ..

[ConvergenceZone]

Are they saying that area 1(10%) and area 2(20%) will merge? I'm confused because they don't really look like
they are that close to each other. In fact, I've seen several storms develop in the past that have been that
close to each other before. One usually ends up being quite a bit stronger than the other of course, but nonetheless.

[KWT]

Yeah Ivanhater, the models really can't decide how to handle any interaction between the two waves, its not totally impossible they remian seperate but come close enough to prevent one another from developing. I think however one will end up taking over down the line, but its why I doubt development before 50W personally...

[HURAKAN]

Are they saying that area 1(10%) and area 2(20%) will merge? I'm confused because they don't really look like
they are that close to each other. In fact, I've seen several storms develop in the past that have been that
close to each other before. One usually ends up being quite a bit stronger than the other of course, but nonetheless.

90L and the tropical wave near africa may merge

[Ivanhater]

1009 mb

AL, 90, 2010073018, , BEST, 0, 91N, 320W, 20, 1009, DB,

[thetruesms]

Are they saying that area 1(10%) and area 2(20%) will merge? I'm confused because they don't really look like
they are that close to each other. In fact, I've seen several storms develop in the past that have been that
close to each other before. One usually ends up being quite a bit stronger than the other of course, but nonetheless.

No, there are two waves within area 2 that are being discussed.

edit - way too slow

[KWT]

The eastern wave looks bigger and stronger to me at the moment, I think its not surprising some of the models are struggling to get this going if they are keying in on the western wave.

[Florida1118]

i like how on TWC the meteorologist was like " Look at the blobs of color. These blobs are bad. They could form into a bigger blob and then the blob..." Not going against TWC but she did say blob a little too much instead of wave.

[KWT]

FWIW most of the 12z suite really don't do much with this wave, I'm waiting to see what the 12z ECM shows in terms of the upper pattern, clearly the 12z isn't nearly as favourable as the 00z was.

[StormClouds63]

i like how on TWC the meteorologist was like " Look at the blobs of color. These blobs are bad. They could form into a bigger blob and then the blob..." Not going against TWC but she did say blob a little too much instead of wave.

TWC tropical updates are too "painful" to watch unless it's Knapp. I have a feeling I know who you're talking about here, but I'll leave it alone.