ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[MiamiHurricanes10]

TAFB still at T1.0. Waiting for SAB...

[KWT]

Convection is a little on the weak side for my liking but thats not surprising given the SAL to the north and the fact it is fairly northerly for its longitude anyway.

[Gustywind]

TAFB still at T1.0. Waiting for SAB...

Thanks Can you provide us the link for the TAFB?

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Convection is a little on the weak side for my liking but thats not surprising given the SAL to the north and the fact it is fairly northerly for its longitude anyway.

Eh, SAL isn't that bad.



It also has a very large moisture field around it so dry air isn't too much of a problem either.



The "not-so-warm" SSTs may be to blame.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

TAFB still at T1.0. Waiting for SAB...

Thanks Can you provide us the link for the TAFB?

Make sure to click on the specified system (for example "fal932010.dat" which is 93L). Once you click, scroll down all the way to the bottom to see the latest stats.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/

[hurricaneCW]

A little bit of SAL and relatively cooler waters (though certainly still warm enough to support development). The water temperatures should be warming as it treks to the wnw/nw. I think the shear will be favorable enough (10-15 knots). There's really no major impediments to development for this system.

[Gustywind]

TAFB still at T1.0. Waiting for SAB...

Thanks Can you provide us the link for the TAFB?

Make sure to click on the specified system (for example "fal932010.dat" which is 93L). Once you click, scroll down all the way to the bottom to see the latest stats.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/fix/

Thanks my friend

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

MiamiHurricanes10, the SAL doesn't look as bad as I thought it did, then in that case yeah its the lower lapse rates caused by the cooler SSTs which is not helping the convection, though really the SST's probably should be warm enough where it is now and can't be the be all and end all.

Still should develop IMO at some point fairly soon given its got some good turning.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Weatherfreak000]

Very near TD status

[supercane]

Seems like low shear on analysis. Very few obs available.

[KWT]

Yeah and there is shear off to the NW which may well be helping to give upper divergence over the convection as well...

Its getting going though from the looks of things, probably will be a TD tomorrow IMO.

[cycloneye]

It has a good circulation but convectionwise,it has to gain a bit more. Lets see if DMAX helps.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z GFS wind shear analysis basically suggests that the anticyclone of 93L will push the TUTT low westward.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/current/850200shear.anim.html

[MiamiHurricanes10]

The NHC will likely stay at 60% with 93L, however I would give it a 80% chance.

[NOLA2010]

Stays at 60%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 211N, 410W, 25, 1011, DB

[MiamiHurricanes10]

TAFB remains at T1.0, still waiting on SAB.

[HURAKAN]

looking good