ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[KWT]

Doesn't look like its closed on the Ascat supercane though it probably does justify it being a High Risk still.

[HURAKAN]

convection continues to increase

[KWT]

Yeah convection is increasing but still doesn't look as good as it did yesterday IMO...

[wxman57]

Did another climo check on 97L's current location. Of all Aug/Sep storms within 65nm of 97L's current location, now there is ONE single hurricane that struck the U.S. and one that made a pretty good impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean storm was Luis '95. The U.S. storm was the very unusual track of Dora of 1964. Interestingly, the EC and CMC models take 97L on a track similar to Dora out to 10 days. I'd say that's possible, but more likely it'll recurve before the models are indicating.

[KWT]

Thanks for that Wxman57 very interesting, as you said the EXCM does show a track very close to Dora, though I've got a feeling 12z ECM will revert again...

Even if it takes its time forming it should still develop slightly in the E.Atlantic and probably get upgraded in the E.Atlantic though the longer it takes the more chances this goes west IMO.

[LowndesCoFire]

Did another climo check on 97L's current location. Of all Aug/Sep storms within 65nm of 97L's current location, now there is ONE single hurricane that struck the U.S. and one that made a pretty good impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean storm was Luis '95. The U.S. storm was the very unusual track of Dora of 1964. Interestingly, the EC and CMC models take 97L on a track similar to Dora out to 10 days. I'd say that's possible, but more likely it'll recurve before the models are indicating.

I was not around when Dora came through, but a track like that one for 97L would spell BIG trouble for us here. Heck, a strong tropical storm brings our area to its knees.

[Blown Away]

Did another climo check on 97L's current location. Of all Aug/Sep storms within 65nm of 97L's current location, now there is ONE single hurricane that struck the U.S. and one that made a pretty good impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean storm was Luis '95. The U.S. storm was the very unusual track of Dora of 1964. Interestingly, the EC and CMC models take 97L on a track similar to Dora out to 10 days. I'd say that's possible, but more likely it'll recurve before the models are indicating.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/fionapast.gif

What am I missing, the climo maps you have shown for Danielle, Earl, and now 97L have almost every storm a recurving fish? Where is the spot and date that most of the CONUS strikes come from?

[Frank2]

Yeah convection is increasing but still doesn't look as good as it did yesterday IMO..

I agree - modest right now but time will tell...

[ROCK]

Did another climo check on 97L's current location. Of all Aug/Sep storms within 65nm of 97L's current location, now there is ONE single hurricane that struck the U.S. and one that made a pretty good impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean storm was Luis '95. The U.S. storm was the very unusual track of Dora of 1964. Interestingly, the EC and CMC models take 97L on a track similar to Dora out to 10 days. I'd say that's possible, but more likely it'll recurve before the models are indicating.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/fionapast.gif

What am I missing, the climo maps you have shown for Danielle, Earl, and now 97L have almost every storm a recurving fish? Where is the spot and date that most of the CONUS strikes come from?

further west in the MDR.....take these maps with a grain of salt...doesnt prove anything but it is nice to look at.....

[Dean4Storms]

This pattern with the weak Atlantic ridging just does not look favorable for a Carib. Crosser or US Strike. We will have to see an end to the troughiness out there in the Atlantic and a return to a strong Bermuda type ridge before a big threat materializes for the US and most of the Carib. IMO.

[ROCK]

This pattern with the weak Atlantic ridging just does not look favorable for a Carib. Crosser or US Strike. We will have to see an end to the troughiness out there in the Atlantic and a return to a strong Bermuda type ridge before a big threat materializes for the US and most of the Carib. IMO.

the weakness is there because we have these back to back to back storms carving up theridge....keeping the door open so to speak....

[Lowpressure]

Did another climo check on 97L's current location. Of all Aug/Sep storms within 65nm of 97L's current location, now there is ONE single hurricane that struck the U.S. and one that made a pretty good impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean storm was Luis '95. The U.S. storm was the very unusual track of Dora of 1964. Interestingly, the EC and CMC models take 97L on a track similar to Dora out to 10 days. I'd say that's possible, but more likely it'll recurve before the models are indicating.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/fionapast.gif

What am I missing, the climo maps you have shown for Danielle, Earl, and now 97L have almost every storm a recurving fish? Where is the spot and date that most of the CONUS strikes come from?

I was thinking the same thing, must be the narrow 65nm parameter used. I know David and Frederick were around here somewhere. I will look them up.

[Lowpressure]

Looking at the 65nm origination graphic, it seems the difference here is when a system gets TD status. Here are some storms that originated in the area but lat and log started when deemed a TD. Pro mets may have better info on these storms before they reached TD status for comparison. Best track for 97L is currently 11.7 23.3. Frederic kept sticking in my mind, I see why.

David--11.7 36.1
Frederic--11.0 25.5
Bertha-- 9.8 34.0
Edouard--12.4 19.9

[HURAKAN]

According to the ship report, we have west winds

[StormClouds63]

This pattern with the weak Atlantic ridging just does not look favorable for a Carib. Crosser or US Strike. We will have to see an end to the troughiness out there in the Atlantic and a return to a strong Bermuda type ridge before a big threat materializes for the US and most of the Carib. IMO.

Excellent point. The pattern in the central and eastern Atlantic basin appears awfully similar to 1950 and 1995.

[HURAKAN]

18z

AL, 97, 2010082718, , BEST, 0, 120N, 243W, 25, 1009, LO

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON MAJOR
HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 480 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE...IS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO POSSIBLY FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[wxman57]

Did another climo check on 97L's current location. Of all Aug/Sep storms within 65nm of 97L's current location, now there is ONE single hurricane that struck the U.S. and one that made a pretty good impact on the Caribbean. The Caribbean storm was Luis '95. The U.S. storm was the very unusual track of Dora of 1964. Interestingly, the EC and CMC models take 97L on a track similar to Dora out to 10 days. I'd say that's possible, but more likely it'll recurve before the models are indicating.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/fionapast.gif

What am I missing, the climo maps you have shown for Danielle, Earl, and now 97L have almost every storm a recurving fish? Where is the spot and date that most of the CONUS strikes come from?

further west in the MDR.....take these maps with a grain of salt...doesnt prove anything but it is nice to look at.....

The map of past tracks is not meant to prove anything. It's just history/climatology. Storms that typically impact the Caribbean and/or the U.S. generally form farther to the south than Danielle, Earl, or 97L formed. All storms gain some latitude as the move between Africa and the Caribbean. The farther north the starting point, the greater the chance they'll pass north of the Caribbean. And if they miss the Caribbean, then there's a high chance of recurvature east of the U.S.

Drop the starting point just 2 degrees south and a much higher percentage of historical storms reach the Caribbean and U.S. And you also have to consider that the database for far east Atlantic storms may not be that good. Prior to satellite, many far east Atlantic storms may not have been detected near where Invest 97L is located.

As has been mentioned, the current negative NAO (weak Bermuda High) would support a greater chance of recurvature east of the U.S. presently.

[fci]

Good point about Far Eastern Atlantic data. Seems to me that the NHC never seemed to acknowledge systems publicly until they bad been off the African coast for a few days. Now, they, righteously so; pop an Invest tag on them very early and attention is publicly paid a couple of days or more earlier.

[Frank2]

the weakness is there because we have these back to back to back storms carving up theridge....keeping the door open so to speak....

They assist in keeping the weakness there, but the weakness has been there for many weeks and has been due to my favorite polar trough that keeps nudging the subtropical high to the northeast...

Here in South Florida another good indicator of the weakness to our east is an absence of strong easterly winds - over the past few weeks our winds have been light from the southeast to southwest and when we get these kona-type winds it's a pretty good indicator that we won't be seeing anything from the east (and is one reason our DP has been near 80 at times lately)...