ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Vortex]

18Z NAM H48


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[caneseddy]

18Z NAM has 95L as a potent system just inland of the NE coast of Honduras at the end of the run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_084m.gif

[Stormcenter]

I still think the area of concern in the GOM is west of 90 if this in fact pans out.....IMO

[caneseddy]

18z GFS coming out in about 10 minutes..will be interesting to see if it still sticks with its idea of the storm making a NE move over Cuba and Bahamas and out in the ocean as well as whether it still develops a second system as it has done in it's most recent runs

[caneseddy]

According to the 18z TVCN track, which I've linked here, and which the NHC likes to use, shows 95L/Matthew curving away from CA in the general direction of the Yucatan with no impact in CA

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... acks-photo

[cycloneye]

This is the PREDICT Team with the 12z GFS imput of vorticity.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms ... _loop.html

[StormClouds63]

IMO, Eloise (1975) or Isidore (2002) type tracks possible at this stage. I'm leaning more toward Eloise-type storm in direction and intensity once in the GOM. Just a guess.

[otowntiger]

According to the 18z TVCN track, which I've linked here, and which the NHC likes to use, shows 95L/Matthew curving away from CA in the general direction of the Yucatan with no impact in CA

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... acks-photo

The fact that all of those model tracks bend like that in concert is ominous indeed. If they are on to something that will cause this thing to miss hitting Central America or just grazing it that would certainly mean a much more intact system posed to enter the Gulf.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am not as much concerned over if and how strong of a trough there will be. But as IvanH mentioned earlier getting more concerned of 95L moving/drifting around long/slow enough that he in fact misses the connection and only turns north in time while the weakness fills in and the trough moves out. Therefore the steerings currents remain weak as it only moves north slowly and then possibly high pressure building back in north of it. This has the potential to stick around for quite some time.

[cycloneye]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[ROCK]

it goes into CA or doesnt but still makes it to the Yucatan at 96hrs.....then we wait another 240hrs before it landfalls somewhere in the GOM? does that seem even possible?

[vbhoutex]

Looks to me like this one is really going to be about timing as to where it goes. The sooner it develops, the more likely it is to feel the developing pattern to its' North which would tend to pull it more North more quickly, imo. If it is slow to develop, the trough coming in and the ridge moving out would be less likely to pull it North. I too find the fact that most of the models turn it more NW when they do quite ominous. Obviously they are all sensing something and as said if that does happen and the system misses or just grazes the Yucatan then the GOM may be looking at one heck of a TC. An off the top of my head, without a lot of research, guess as to final landfall would be somewhere between SC LA and Panama City, FL, leaning more towards LA at this time. Again though I have to say it is definitely going to be all about the timing of development.

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[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thats what i'm leaning towards as well vbhoutex. This is basically going to come down to a one shot deal. Either the west coast of Florida or as you said somewhere along the north central gulf coast. Which LA/MS could very well be the main target area. I know way too early to know yet but as i said it has one shot to catch the trough if not its pretty obvious where it would go from there if drifting around in the southern gulf.
Oh and btw I am thinking it feels the influence of the trough for a while, getting pulled north. But then the trough pulls out and leaves 95L meandering around the gulf while the weakness left behind gradually fills in. Hope I am wrong, sorry floridians, but we dont need this around here either.

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

twins again....doh!!

[ROCK]

[ROCK]

[wxman57]

Reminds me a lot of Wilma ('05), Mitch ('98) or even Keith ('00). Possibly most of Wilma. With a deepening trof to the north by late in the weekend, there won't be much to push the storm westward. It may sit for a few days in the NW Caribbean waiting to be picked up and carried off to the north and quite likely the NNE-NE toward Florida.

For now, I see the threat as being east of 90W - the northeast Gulf - rather than the northwest Gulf behind the cold front. Can't rule out a track westward across the Yucatan to Mexico (Keith 2000) if the disturbance moves much faster than forecast.

[ROCK]

thats a mega low over LA moving east......early for something like that in Sept but models are seeing it...

95L just sitting there...

[ROCK]

still sitting there at 174hrs...la la