ATL: PAULA - Models

[SouthDadeFish]

The latest NAM does appear to show a less favorable environment in the road ahead.

[caneseddy]

GFS out to 54 hours...headign towards the Yucatan Channel

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054l.gif

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS out to 72 hours: keeps it off NE tip of YP

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_072l.gif

[caneseddy]

GFS out to 96 hours: moves Paula east to just south of the western tip of Cuba

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_096l.gif

[caneseddy]

12z GFS out to 150 hours: takes Paula south back towards the Gulf of Honduras and forms what looks like Richard east of Nicaragua

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_150l.gif

edit: out to 168 hours: has it spinning in the Gulf of Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_168l.gif

[caneseddy]

out to 228 hours (fantasyland) : moves north to a position just SE of the Isle of Youth and expands it in size

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_228l.gif

[LarryWx]

Fantasytime again...**fwiw**, the 12Z gfs just misses Miami area on 10/22 with 98L

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS has been doing this nonsense for consecutive runs. I'm sorry, I just have a hard time seeing Paula stall for over a week in the NW Carib, then merge with Richard into a super storm.

[SouthDadeFish]

Well if the GFS pans out to be true, it finally shows a favorable upper environment over S Florida in 264 hours. Lol.

[ronjon]

Hello Miami. Steering currents to collaspe in the NW caribbean (ala Mitch).

[LarryWx]

GFS has been doing this nonsense for consecutive runs. I'm sorry, I just have a hard time seeing Paula stall for over a week in the NW Carib, then merge with Richard into a super storm.

Maybe so, but keep in mind these hurricane hit dates from the west/south on FL from Tampa area south 10/1+ (1851-2009):

10/2, 10/5, 10/5, 10/6, 10/7, 10/9, 10/11, 10/11, 10/12, 10/14, 10/15, 10/17, 10/18, 10/18, 10/18, 10/19, 10/19, 10/20, 10/20, 10/20, 10/21, 10/23, 10/24, 10/25, 11/30

Note the bolded period of highest frequency for 10/1+ within a five day period by far being 10/17-21, which had a whopping TEN, double the highest frequency of any other 10/1+ five day period! So, the peak for 10/1+ for C/S FL hits from the west or south has clearly been 10/17-21.

[cycloneye]

18z Models

SHIP has a hurricane.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 111809
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1809 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982010) 20101011 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101011  1800   101012  0600   101012  1800   101013  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  83.7W   16.6N  85.2W   17.7N  86.5W   18.3N  87.3W
BAMD    15.6N  83.7W   16.6N  85.2W   17.9N  86.6W   19.0N  87.5W
BAMM    15.6N  83.7W   16.6N  85.2W   17.7N  86.3W   18.3N  87.0W
LBAR    15.6N  83.7W   16.7N  84.9W   18.2N  86.3W   20.0N  87.1W
SHIP        40KTS          51KTS          61KTS          67KTS
DSHP        40KTS          51KTS          61KTS          67KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101013  1800   101014  1800   101015  1800   101016  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.4N  88.0W   16.4N  89.0W   13.4N  90.8W   12.1N  93.6W
BAMD    19.9N  88.2W   21.2N  87.6W   22.5N  84.5W   24.6N  77.3W
BAMM    18.4N  87.8W   17.3N  88.6W   15.6N  90.0W   14.6N  92.1W
LBAR    22.0N  86.8W   26.0N  80.7W   32.1N  65.4W   35.8N  56.8W
SHIP        73KTS          72KTS          62KTS          56KTS
DSHP        73KTS          72KTS          62KTS          56KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.6N LONCUR =  83.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  14.2N LONM12 =  82.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  80.8W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   50NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  50NM
 


[cycloneye]

Updated 18z Models with Paula.

Code: Select all

725
WHXX01 KWBC 111823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC MON OCT 11 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULA (AL182010) 20101011 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        101011  1800   101012  0600   101012  1800   101013  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.7N  83.7W   16.7N  85.2W   17.8N  86.5W   18.6N  87.3W
BAMD    15.7N  83.7W   16.8N  85.1W   18.1N  86.4W   19.3N  87.4W
BAMM    15.7N  83.7W   16.8N  85.1W   18.0N  86.2W   18.8N  86.9W
LBAR    15.7N  83.7W   16.8N  84.8W   18.5N  86.1W   20.1N  86.7W
SHIP        40KTS          51KTS          61KTS          67KTS
DSHP        40KTS          51KTS          61KTS          67KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        101013  1800   101014  1800   101015  1800   101016  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.7N  88.0W   17.2N  88.9W   14.5N  90.5W   13.4N  92.9W
BAMD    20.4N  88.0W   22.6N  86.6W   25.5N  79.5W   30.5N  59.9W
BAMM    19.2N  87.6W   19.1N  88.1W   18.3N  88.6W   18.4N  89.8W
LBAR    22.1N  86.1W   26.6N  79.3W   32.2N  64.0W   35.8N  56.8W
SHIP        73KTS          71KTS          61KTS          54KTS
DSHP        73KTS          71KTS          61KTS          54KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.7N LONCUR =  83.7W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  14.2N LONM12 =  82.0W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  80.8W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   50NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  50NM


[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: has it nearly stationary near coast of Yucatan at hour 180 fwiw.

Edit: Then it weakens over the Yucatan.

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at the models, 98L, soon to be Paula, takes a path typical of a Caribbean storm that forms in October. As for strength, it depends on how fast it moves. The slower it moves, the more likely it can undergo rapid intensification.

[wzrgirl1]

This is why you can't let your guard down. Once this forms, it is almost guaranteed that in October a front will pick it up. This has the makings of a monster IMO.

[hurricaneCW]

This is why you can't let your guard down. Once this forms, it is almost guaranteed that in October a front will pick it up. This has the makings of a monster IMO.

That's way too early to say, remember how we all thought that Nicole could have been a monster as well as other disturbance of that whole Caribbean gyro. I say minimal hurricane at its peak.

[LarryWx]

This is why you can't let your guard down. Once this forms, it is almost guaranteed that in October a front will pick it up. This has the makings of a monster IMO.

For the period 1851-2009, I counted 64 TC’s that were first declared in the Caribbean west of 75W and that were in the Caribbean west of 75W at some point within 10/11-31 ET.

For those 64, here is the breakdown:

- 27 (42%) later hit the U.S. (17 of these 27 hit S FL or 27% of the 64; 6 of these 27 hit NC or 9% of the 64; 3 of these 27 hit both S FL and NC or 5% of the 64)
- 21 (33%) ended up missing the U.S. to the east or south
- 13 (20%) ended up dieing over or immediately adjacent to either MX or Central America
- 3 (5%) died over either the G.O.M. or Cuba

Based on these stats, I'd estimate that 48 or 75% of them were picked up by a trough. So, yes most of them have gotten picked up but these stats say it is far from guaranteed since 25% didn't get picked up.

[Ptarmigan]

For the period 1851-2009, I counted 64 TC’s that were first declared in the Caribbean west of 75W and that were in the Caribbean west of 75W at some point within 10/11-31 ET.

For those 64, here is the breakdown:

- 27 (42%) later hit the U.S. (17 of these 27 hit S FL or 27% of the 64; 6 of these 27 hit NC or 9% of the 64; 3 of these 27 hit both S FL and NC or 5% of the 64)
- 21 (33%) ended up missing the U.S. to the east or south
- 13 (20%) ended up dieing over or immediately adjacent to either MX or Central America
- 3 (5%) died over either the G.O.M. or Cuba

Based on these stats, I'd estimate that 48 or 75% of them were picked up by a trough. So, yes most of them have gotten picked up but these stats say it is far from guaranteed since 25% didn't get picked up.

Interesting stats! That is why we keep an eye on the tropics. My concern if Paula was to slow down and even stall out over the Caribbean, which has some of the deepest warm water areas, it could undergo rapid intensification like Mitch and Wilma.

[northjaxpro]

This is why you can't let your guard down. Once this forms, it is almost guaranteed that in October a front will pick it up. This has the makings of a monster IMO.

Well, POTENTIALLY Paula has an opportunity to strengthen into a potent tropical cyclone. While I agree certain ingredients are there for the system to intensify, remember for the moment steering currents are weak and the system could also meander and drift inland into Belize or Yucatan Peninsula as well.

The models seem to be favoring a path to keep her mostly off shore, which should help Paula intensify to at least Cat 1 status. But, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the future of this system. I think it is still very plausible that Paula may get pinned down in the NW Caribbean for days and may not get pulled out NE if this current shortwave moving through the Central U.S. Plains misses the connection with Paula.