ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[njweather]

Quick question:

- What are the models saying about the system's speed once it's in lower central gulf? I've noticed that NHC's forecast moves it rather slowly once it reaches 96 hours.

[LaBreeze]

Accuweather. They seems to think it will track farther south, but just in case, they leave the door open farther north!!!

Someone slam that door!~

[KWT]

Usually these big depressions take time strengthening since it takes time to consolidate everything.

But I have a hard time believing that a system in the WCAR with favorable atmospheric conditions will only go from 35 to 50 mph in 2 days. Lets see.

Conditions are ok but nothing too special, the upper high is still a little too far west for very good conditions to be aloft, its close but not quite there and still has about 10-15kts of shear on it.

Another good system to compare with maybe Hurricane 1 of 1922 which formed in nearly the exact same spot in June.

[jinftl]

A system passing to the south and west of the oil spill area = strong push of oil to the north (towards land).

Quick question:

- What are the models saying about the system's speed once it's in lower central gulf? I've noticed that NHC's forecast moves it rather slowly once it reaches 96 hours.

[thetruesms]

AllI can say about this forecast is: I am holding my toungue for the sake of the young on the board. Many of you know my opinions about the NHC's "split the difference...consensus forecasts"...and this proves my point.

I guess I am just a pick a side type of guy.

While I totally understand the concept of making a quasi-ensemble by using model means in a forecast where the envelope is fairly tight, I agree that it really loses its point in a situation like this. Just because you pick a camp doesn't mean you have to mirror it exactly . . . but at least pick your more probable solution and base it off that, rather than just slapping them all together and seeing what comes out

[KWT]

Accuweather. They seems to think it will track farther south, but just in case, they leave the door open farther north!!!

To be honest thats the sort of track I'd go for right now, but I don't think we know enough about the current direction of the system to know where its going in the longer term IMO.

Still I wouldn't be surprised if TS warnings go up for Belieze soon either if it doesn't lift out as much as expected.

[MWatkins]

The discussion said it was a blend of the models, so I imagine now witha center, the models will pick sides, I lean towards the GFS and Euro personally.

"AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. A SECOND
GROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO."

AllI can say about this forecast is: I am holding my toungue for the sake of the young on the board. Many of you know my opinions about the NHC's "split the difference...consensus forecasts"...and this proves my point.

I guess I am just a pick a side type of guy.

Yaknow, I was just saying the same thing to somebody here...that looks like your run of the mill split the difference forecast.

There is something to be said for making a deterministic forecast that everyone knows won't verify. TC forecasting has become a game of playing it safe to minimize track errors, because that's what is measured at the end of the year. I suppose it's a necessary evil in this very public role of hurricane forecasting.

That said, I have a hard time believing that HRWF and GDFL are on the right track...they seem to gain latitude too quickly in the models, and they have had a right bias all along. I just don't see an opening in the mean layer ridge that will be big enough for One to get picked up like that.

So yeah, that line should probably be on the south end of the bubble, and I would expect the track to shift southward over the next couple of days.

Interesting to see this coming together more or less on schedule...the satellite presentation (especially of the total envelope) has really improved today.

MW

[ConvergenceZone]

HURAKAN
yea, that Accuweather Track seems more realistic.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN
yea, that Accuweather Track seems more realistic.

Could be too. What I find interesting is how large is the right side of the track compared to the left side.

I would like to see what the models say after they have the info gathered by RECON

[cycloneye]

Accuweather is a private firm, not the official agency as NHC is.That is why I never look at those extreme graphics that they always have.

[chzzdekr81]

I can't get over how HUGE it is...

[HURAKAN]

BEAUTIFUL - I certainly remember a large depression in this area, can't remember the year!!!

[RL3AO]

Isn't JB always ripping NOAA/NWS/NHC for issuing forecasts that kinda cover everything?

[KWT]

HURAKAN
yea, that Accuweather Track seems more realistic.

Could be too. What I find interesting is how large is the right side of the track compared to the left side.

Yeah its obviously Accuweather covering themself just in case the system does decide to pick up latitude, therefore they can still claim the system was in thier zone of uncertainty.

I don't think the Accuweather call is extreme at all though in this case, I think more points to it then a track further north-east in the Gulf...ATM!

[drezee]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

42056 had a 1-min sustained wind of 34 kts

outer band, but still

Future Alex is blowing its top...right over top of the center!!! Intensity forecast could be interesting...

[Ivanhater]

Explosive hot towers going on right now. Pressures for sure lowering even more

[artist]

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 93.6 °F
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[deltadog03]

GFDL and HWRF are prolly too far right, but they could be seeing some early jumping around of the LLC in the early stages. My guess, is the euro will be closer to verifying, but not going to get buried into the BOC...IMO**

[Aquawind]

Yes it is pretty deep as well.. might help ~pull that center WNW..

[lonelymike]

What is difference betweens Ships and Decay Ships?