ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[plasticup]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41044

30 foot waves, and Igor is still 130 miles away.

[bvigal]

This thing is a monster! Even as far away as it is, we are getting small bit of precip this morning from Igor.
I don't hold out much hope for the survival of 41044!!

[wxmann_91]

The formerly-present feeder-bands and arcs are already dying as the new, huge eye firms up, and radial outflow aloft is now smothering everything in sight. I.e., annular. The storm is at the same longitude (55W) as Isabel when she evolved into a giant donutcane cat-5.

Unofficially, today will officially be "freak-out" day when the sats are splashed across the morning news.

I still see a few feeder bands. A big eye and radial outflow does not make an annular hurricane. And many storms go through this area but do not go annular. It's quite a rare phenomenon, and the environment does not support it right now - SSTs are too high and there is some weak southerly shear (rather than none or extremely weak easterly shear). I'll eat crow if this does become annular, but at this time I do not see it happening (most annular storms are moving west rather than NW, for a reason).

I agree though that the sats should freak some people out and then some - we will have another round of beautiful imagery from this.

[Gustywind]

Impressive southern quadrant

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Looks like the NW quadrant is suffering a little at the moment, doesn't look nearly as impressive as the southern side of the hurricane....but I'd imagine the TS wind radius is going to get a little larger yet!

Big ole hurricane, gotta wonder what recon will find today when they finally fly into the hurricane!

Bermuda will get weather from this even if it ends up missing them!

[plasticup]

The formerly-present feeder-bands and arcs are already dying as the new, huge eye firms up, and radial outflow aloft is now smothering everything in sight. I.e., annular. The storm is at the same longitude (55W) as Isabel when she evolved into a giant donutcane cat-5.

Unofficially, today will officially be "freak-out" day when the sats are splashed across the morning news.

Per, SHIPS at 06 UTC:

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112010 IGOR 09/16/10 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[hurricaneCW]

This storm is massive and it may not be done expanding yet, the NHC continues to increase the area of TS force winds to 270 nautical miles which I believe is over 310 miles, very impressive. I'm still waiting to see the new eye contract further and completely clear out, Igor could get a little bit stronger if it does that but it has to start moving a little bit faster because upwelling will be an issue. The best thing about Igor is that it's a pure ACE monster, it's about to surpass Earl as the biggest ACE storm of the season and I think Igor could get 45-50 units by the time it's all said and done.

[Crostorm]

[KWT]

Looking very good still but you can see what I meant by the NW Quadrant looks a little flattened out and not as healthy as the other quadrants of the storm.

[Crostorm]

Huge eye

[plasticup]

Looking very good still but you can see what I meant by the NW Quadrant looks a little flattened out and not as healthy as the other quadrants of the storm.

It is even more obvious in the water vapor imagery:

[wxman57]

use this site to estimate the distance of them:
http://jan.ucc.nau.edu/~cvm/latlongdist.html

they seem to have distance of 1400 miles right now

Try it again. I get 1100. Anyway, the important point is they could get close enough toi interact, and it would be fascinating to see.

Both are now located at 20.2ºN, so 56.5ºW - 34.6ºW is 21.9 * 60 = 1314 nm * 1.152 = 1514 miles

Note that only a degree of latitude = 60 nm. And only at the equator is 1 degree of longitude equal to about 60 nm. As you go north, a degree of longitude is equal to fewer and fewer nautical miles. At the poles, it's zero. At 20N, 1 degree of longitude is definitely not equal to 60nm. It's less, maybe 5nm less (an estimate).

Back to Igor. Yes, sure is getting large. Note that the models tried to merge the past few sets of storms out there together. Remember when there was Danielle and Earl? Models tried to move Earl through Danielle and shoot Earl out the other side? That sure didn't happen.

[brunota2003]

Can't wait until recon this afternoon!

2. HURRICANE IGOR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0111A IGOR
C. 16/1430Z
D. 21.4N 57.6W
E. 16/1600Z TO 16/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[AussieMark]

this could be bad for Bermuda if the NHC forcast track verifies.

Fabian in 2003 passed just 15 nautical miles west of Bermuda with 120 mph winds.

[KWT]

Yeah could well have a system close to major status nearby Bermuda, the only good news is it does seem to be a little more ragged today, IMO its not a cat-4 anymore either but recon will find out one or the other later today!

Bermuda needs to watch out, and given Igor's large size even a sweeping pass will give something to Bermuda.

[plasticup]

this could be bad for Bermuda if the NHC forcast track verifies.

Fabian in 2003 passed just 15 nautical miles west of Bermuda with 120 mph winds.

The NHC said it passed to the west, but I know people who stood outside in the calm of the eye. It was a direct hit on the western end of the island. Igor could do the very same thing.

[KWT]

I personally think Igor will go just to the west of Bermuda but the eye is rather large so its certainly got a better chance of hitting Bermuda directly then usual.

[TheBurn]

[AussieMark]

this could be bad for Bermuda if the NHC forcast track verifies.

Fabian in 2003 passed just 15 nautical miles west of Bermuda with 120 mph winds.

The NHC said it passed to the west, but I know people who stood outside in the calm of the eye. It was a direct hit on the western end of the island. Igor could do the very same thing.

when you talking about such a small island not much between being 15 miles east of the storms center as it does leave you exposed to the storms strongest section

Fabian did enough damage to be retired to Bermuda

the strange thing is Fabian was the worst Hurricane to Bermuda since 1926 and in space of 7 could cop 2 devastating hurricanes.