ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[wxman57]

I still see a WNW motion on satellite and radar. Since the convection is not symmetrical around the center, the colorized satellite loop may lead one to believe that Earl is tracking westward. Radar shows definite WNW motion as well.

[Evenstar]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

[artist]

starting to really ramp up tonight... things looking bad for the islands...

starting to think it will be closer to the obx as it seems to be pushing west of the next position point... if i lived along the obx, i would possibly start thinking about your plans... of course, this is nothing more than a guess at this point, but it is starting to look like i might have been on the right path the other night... will be interesting the next day or so..

good to see you! yeah, I saw your post the other night. I so wish this would just miss everyone though.
I am wondering if the cone will be moved further west next advisory. Or has it come out already?

[Stephanie]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

Doesn't look like Earl's turning any time soon.

I'm glad that they FINALLY issued a bulletin and recognized Earl as a Cat 2 and more of a threat to the islands than they had been saying previously.

[weatherSnoop]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

Rapid Intensification

[Cyclone1]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

"Rapid Intensification"

[BigB0882]

Looks like it has been trying to correct that southwest wobble. Isn't it common to see a jog southwest before taking the first obvious steps to the northwest?

[Buck]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

No problem! RI = Rapid Intensification.

Living anywhere along the coast, I would be keeping an eye on Earl, but it is too soon to be making any plans yet.

[TCmet]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

RI = Rapid Intensification (usually greater than 24mb decrease in less than 24 hours)

Don't ever apologize for asking a question... we're all learning and helping each other here!

[MGC]

100mph....should be knocking on the Cat-3 door by morning. I've been staring at the St Maarten radar and I see a slightly north of due west track......MGC

[vacanechaser]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

No problem! RI = Rapid Intensification.

Living anywhere along the coast, I would be keeping an eye on Earl, but it is too soon to be making any plans yet.

true... i live in portsmouth in southeast va... but if i lived a little further south, like the obx.. i might start thinking about it very seriously... i think the 11pm will shift west a bit... but tomorrow, we should have a much better feel for whats coming ...

[CrazyC83]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

I'd keep a very close eye there, since you have almost no room for error if it makes landfall. If Earl stays well over water you should be mostly okay, perhaps tropical storm conditions and some power outages.

[Evenstar]

Thank you very much. I would like to say how much I appreciate this forum. I am always incredibly impressed by the knowledge of the posters here (though y'all are a bit intimidating). It's so helpful to be able to refer to the posts here. I made a typo in my original post. I also meant to ask about the track of Earl. I live in Chesapeake VA and am wondering if I should be concerned or just chill...

[jinftl]

No additional warnings have been issued since earlier today....the appropriate islands were place in a hurricane warning a while back. Folks were told to prepare for a hurricane, be it a direct hit or a storm passing just north. How has that changed? Intensification was forecast to take place and the system is moving within the forecast track cone.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

Doesn't look like Earl's turning any time soon.

I'm glad that they FINALLY issued a bulletin and recognized Earl as a Cat 2 and more of a threat to the islands than they had been saying previously.

[AdamFirst]

The NHC doesn't buy any more west movement.

[artist]

yeah, it is that time of year and time for everyone to complete getting their supplies, etc. just on the chance of the possibility. I know, even though we are not in the cone here in south Florida, we will be making certain we have enough water, gas, etc. for the season from this point forward.

[Stephanie]

No additional warnings have been issued since earlier today....the appropriate islands were place in a hurricane warning a while back. Folks were told to prepare for a hurricane, be it a direct hit or a storm passing just north. How has that changed? Intensification was forecast to take place and the system is moving within the forecast track cone.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

Doesn't look like Earl's turning any time soon.

I'm glad that they FINALLY issued a bulletin and recognized Earl as a Cat 2 and more of a threat to the islands than they had been saying previously.

I just don't think people were thinking of almost a direct hit. They were on the outer reaches of the cone.

[UpTheCreek]

Thank you very much. I would like to say how much I appreciate this forum. I am always incredibly impressed by the knowledge of the posters here (though y'all are a bit intimidating). It's so helpful to be able to refer to the posts here. I made a typo in my original post. I also meant to ask about the track of Earl. I live in Chesapeake VA and am wondering if I should be concerned or just chill...

I ran my generator this afternoon and am keeping an eye here near the coast in NC. The cone had moved east a few NHC advisories ago and has remained the same since. It has NOT shifted to the west, so I am being "cautiously optimistic" that we'll see some tropical storm force winds at worst. I am more concerned with surge as I live on the water though. Just keep an eye on it.

[Stephanie]

Thank you very much. I would like to say how much I appreciate this forum. I am always incredibly impressed by the knowledge of the posters here (though y'all are a bit intimidating). It's so helpful to be able to refer to the posts here. I made a typo in my original post. I also meant to ask about the track of Earl. I live in Chesapeake VA and am wondering if I should be concerned or just chill...

Welcome aboard! Stay tuned to NWS and your local weather forecasts and here of course, for up to date information. A lot can still happen 4 - 5 days out. Even on the outer reaches of the forecast cone, as we're seeing here now, there's still a chance that we'll get more than we bargained for.

[JTE50]

I'm sorry to be an idiot (usually a committed lurker here), but what does RI stand for? I suspect you have had that question in the past many times, but bear with me.

Also, how concerned I should be living here in Chesapeake VA?

It would maybe help if there was a glossary somewhere so the lay folks could decode the acronyms or may I suggest that folks just spell it out. Otherwise this forum becomes more of a "club" of a few hard core cane trackers than a forum for the masses.