ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[txagwxman]

GFDL south.

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF very similar to 06Z. Landfall ivo Corpus Christi (or thereabouts) in 60h.

[Big O]

GFDL south.

Where does it show landfall?

[KWT]

CMC is now south of the border, getting better agreement again now...looks like the ECM will be closer to the mark, though in truth they've met in the middle...

[clfenwi]

GFDL south.

Where does it show landfall?

Haven't seen any pretty picture sites load yet, but this is the text. Brings it in at the upper Mexico coast, a bit further south than any of the other 12Z models we've seen so far.

179
WHXX04 KWBC 281722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALEX 01L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.0 91.6 330./ 6.0
6 20.3 91.7 344./ 4.0
12 21.0 91.9 349./ 6.4
18 21.7 92.1 343./ 7.6
24 23.0 92.7 336./13.6
30 23.9 94.0 306./15.2
36 24.1 95.1 279./10.1
42 24.2 95.9 278./ 7.6
48 24.4 96.8 284./ 8.9
54 24.7 97.8 285./ 8.9
60 24.7 98.9 272./10.2
66 24.0 100.7 247./17.8
72 23.5 102.2 253./14.7
78 23.7 103.6 276./13.0
84 23.8 105.4 274./16.8
90 24.6 107.1 297./17.6
96 25.5 108.5 301./14.5
102 27.0 109.9 317./20.1
108 28.8 111.2 324./21.2
114 33.2 114.6 322./52.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 114 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[KWT]

Interesting that the system actually dives a little WSW towards the end, but note it does take its remains back northwards again, lets hope it doesn't take too long in moving otherwise we could get a coastal scrapper...

[Extremeweatherguy]

GFDL:

[ROCK]

GFDL IMO is to far south....thats a serious hard left turn...might be overdoing the ridge....who knows...I have been sleep deprived for 3 days because IVAN and WX warrior made me stay for the 1am EURO.....I havent a clue anymore...

[Nederlander]

GFDL IMO is to far south....thats a serious hard left turn...might be overdoing the ridge....who knows...I have been sleep deprived for 3 days because IVAN and WX warrior made me stay for the 1am EURO.....I havent a clue anymore...

I agree. For some of these to verify, Alex will need to start heading more to the NW pretty much right now. still looks like a corpus storm to me..

[Dean4Storms]

If Alex continues this slow pace all day you can disregard many of these models.

[TwisterFanatic]

I am a Noob but i wanted to show you guys this if you haven't seen it..

[ROCK]

nice climo graphic but really climo has nothing to do with this set-up...If it did we would all be following the Clipper.....good research though and welcome to 2K...

[cycloneye]

IMO GFDL is too fast as only in 54 hours it makes landfall.

[antonlsu]

IMO GFDL is too fast as only in 54 hours it makes landfall.

I am with you on that one cycloneye

[ROCK]

If Alex continues this slow pace all day you can disregard many of these models.

what further south...thats all I can think of...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

IMO GFDL is too fast as only in 54 hours it makes landfall.

Yeah it would have to really pick up speed like now in order for that to happen.

[ROCK]

the GFDL is too fast and the hard left turn is supsect, IMO...Alex is moving 5mph....

[txagwxman]

ECMWF south of Brownsville now, UKMET Brownsville. No need to worry too much up here along the Upper TX coast.

[americanre1]

With the movement continuing to slow down, what are the possibilities now that it looks like it is stalling.

[antonlsu]

ECMWF south of Brownsville now, UKMET Brownsville. No need to worry too much up here along the Upper TX coast.

How much rain you think we can expect