ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[paintplaye]

Nederlander, I think climatology would dictate a strike in the area of Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, not Texas.

Not for the trof. The GFS has a very deep trof making it all the way down to the middle of Florida and this is most likely not going to happen in late June.

[Nederlander]

Nederlander, I think climatology would dictate a strike in the area of Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, not Texas.

Not for the trof. The GFS has a very deep trof making it all the way down to the middle of Florida and this is most likely not going to happen in late June.

Exactly.. my reference to climo was in regards to the trof..

[CourierPR]

Nederlander, I think climatology would dictate a strike in the area of Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, not Texas.

Not for the trof. The GFS has a very deep trof making it all the way down to the middle of Florida and this is most likely not going to happen in late June.

What is your point? A trof would draw a storm more north.

[Nederlander]

Nederlander, I think climatology would dictate a strike in the area of Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, not Texas.

Not for the trof. The GFS has a very deep trof making it all the way down to the middle of Florida and this is most likely not going to happen in late June.

What is your point? A trof would draw a storm more north.

Our point is that its unlikely in late june that a trof would dig that far south to catch TD 1..

[P.K.]

FL winds of 46kts and SFMR obs suggest this is now a 35kt TS.

[CourierPR]

OK, now I see your point.

[Cyclenall]

FL winds of 46kts and SFMR obs suggest this is now a 35kt TS.

I was curious if just one ob is enough to upgrade to Alex. If so, it's been a long hull of waiting for it and would make it the first TS of the decade for the Atlantic basin.

[Nederlander]

FL winds of 46kts and SFMR obs suggest this is now a 35kt TS.

I was curious if just one ob is enough to upgrade to Alex. If so, it's been a long hull of waiting for it and would make it the first TS of the decade for the Atlantic basin.

would it? or would it be the last A storm for the decade? there wasnt a year '0' so 1-10 should be a decade and then 11-20 should be another.. and on and on..

sorry for getting philosophical on you.. but back to TD-1.. as long as there is an observation (1 or more) of sustained winds of 34 kts or more.. then you have a TS

[Cyclenall]

FL winds of 46kts and SFMR obs suggest this is now a 35kt TS.

I was curious if just one ob is enough to upgrade to Alex. If so, it's been a long hull of waiting for it and would make it the first TS of the decade for the Atlantic basin.

would it? or would it be the last A storm for the decade? there wasnt a year '0' so 1-10 should be a decade and then 11-20 should be another.. and on and on..

sorry for getting philosophical on you..

This can of worms again! I remember this same thing stated when I said Hurricane Fred from last year was probably going to be the last major hurricane of the decade. Someone then said what you said and a discussion was born! I don't recall if it was you or another poster but the camps were certainly split on that one!

[Aquawind]

More bursting near the center..

[Time_Zone]

FL winds of 46kts and SFMR obs suggest this is now a 35kt TS.

I was curious if just one ob is enough to upgrade to Alex. If so, it's been a long hull of waiting for it and would make it the first TS of the decade for the Atlantic basin.

would it? or would it be the last A storm for the decade? there wasnt a year '0' so 1-10 should be a decade and then 11-20 should be another.. and on and on..

sorry for getting philosophical on you.. but back to TD-1.. as long as there is an observation (1 or more) of sustained winds of 34 kts or more.. then you have a TS

0-9...10 years. 10 years is a decade. This is how it works like it or not.

[Aquawind]

575
URNT12 KNHC 260730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012010
A. 26/07:01:30Z
B. 16 deg 53 min N
084 deg 34 min W
C. 925 mb 728 m
D. 41 kt
E. 094 deg 21 nm
F. 133 deg 43 kt
G. 061 deg 64 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 22 C / 764 m
J. 24 C / 767 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0201A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 06:21:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[P.K.]

ATCF shows we now have Alex.

[Aquawind]

Aww Everyone will be so excited in the morning..lol There was alot of wind in the obs so far..No Special Statement yet..they may wait until the 5am i suppose.

[ozonepete]

Pressure has risen and this has not moved at all. I think the center is relocating.

Think you are right, I. This is really slowing down.

[Aquawind]

Alex is on NRL/ATCF site is right Peter!

[Time_Zone]

Did the center relocate to the NE or not? And if so will this change anything as far as intensity, and the potential track of the system?

[Nederlander]

Did the center relocate to the NE or not? And if so will this change anything as far as intensity, and the potential track of the system?

It looked like it was trying to earlier.. but that convection has died down and now convection has really popped again near the original center.. regardles, i doubt it would have had a major impact on track.. maybe some on intensity since it would have spent less time over the yucatan..

[Chacor]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

[Pedro Fernández]

Good morning all from Spain

Well... Here we go. The first named storm of the Atlantic season... And very interesting data in the forecast discussion:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 260847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Look at the intensfication when ALEX reaches GOM waters... ECMWF and his goal with a major hurricane in the GOM, several days ago?