ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Chacor]

That forecast intensification isn't that remarkable, actually. 25 knots over 48 hours.

[Cookie]

[KWT]

Well we have our first system of the Atlantic season. The NHC forecast has shifted westwards at least in the sort term and given the motion it may well have to shift even further west in the short term as well....

I think the ECM solution is looking good right now IMO, with a system into mid-north Texas but other models have shifted back to Texas again. I also wouldn't be all that shocked to see it get close to hurricane status given the amount of time it has over water in the BoC/Gulf.

[Gustywind]

Code Yellow

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260547
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE
CITY BELIZE.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Nimbus]

Looking briefly at the infrared loop it appears the convection is elongated SW to NE? The update mentioned a broad area of low pressure. That would be great if Alex turned out to be one of those two poled storms that fights with itself to develop. Unfortunately when the circulation makes landfall on Belize/Yucatan it will likely tighten up.

[dixiebreeze]

Well we have our first system of the Atlantic season. The NHC forecast has shifted westwards at least in the sort term and given the motion it may well have to shift even further west in the short term as well....

I think the ECM solution is looking good right now IMO, with a system into mid-north Texas but other models have shifted back to Texas again. I also wouldn't be all that shocked to see it get close to hurricane status given the amount of time it has over water in the BoC/Gulf.

I believe that no matter where landfall occurs, Alex will definitely affect the oil spill. We're in Crystal River, Fla., and a TS or 'cane as far south as the YP roils the gulf waters considerably here. I will surely be shocked if Alex landfalls in Mexico or South Texas. I expect to see a gradually model shift to the right during the weekend.

[Gustywind]

From a correspondant of Belize

- - Belize - -
- TS Alex Approaching Belize Coast & Caye Caulker...
By Barry Beer <barry at cayecaulkerweather.com>
Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2010 03:03:05 -0600

Well, the first Tropical Storm of the season is approaching the coast of Belize. The 0500 UTC report just came they've upgraded the TD to Tropical Storm Alex...
So far, we've had wind and rain coming from the north with a good squall soaking the island last evening, just as the festivities were getting underway for the Caye Caulker Lobster Fest.
Right now, winds are light from the N and NNW averaging 6 mph with light rain. The barometer is is falling at 1007.9 mb. Recent sat images indicate intense thunderstorm activity to the east... BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES...
More news on Saturday...

[Gustywind]

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/belize.shtml

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

T.S. Alex forms in western Caribbean
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jun. 26, 2010 5:08 am ET
The first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season--Alex--has formed in the western Caribbean. The Eastern Pacific also remains active with two hurricanes: Celia and Darby.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

ATLANTIC

Tropical Depression 1 formed Friday evening in the western Caribbean, and as of 5 a.m. Saturday became Tropical Storm Alex. Alex is located about 220 miles east of Belize City, or 250 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico, and has winds near 40 miles per hour. Alex is forecast to move inland near the Belize/Mexico border overnight Saturday night/early Sunday morning, move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, then move out into the Bay of Campeche in the early morning hours on Monday. After that, Alex is expected to move very slowly to the northwest in the southern Gulf of Mexico or the Bay of Campeche through midweek.

With tropical storm conditions expected within the next 24 to 36 hours, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the Yucatan Coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Cancun, the entire coast of Belize, and the islands of Roatan, Guanaja, and Utila in Honduras.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Honduras from Limon west to the Honduras/Guatemala border, where tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 48 hours or so.

Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather just east of the northern Leeward Islands will be monitored over the next couple of days. It is associated with a tropical wave that is interacting with an upper level trough. There is some potential for this system to develop slowly over the next couple of days.

[cycloneye]

Nice loop.

[perk]

Well we have our first system of the Atlantic season. The NHC forecast has shifted westwards at least in the sort term and given the motion it may well have to shift even further west in the short term as well....

I think the ECM solution is looking good right now IMO, with a system into mid-north Texas but other models have shifted back to Texas again. I also wouldn't be all that shocked to see it get close to hurricane status given the amount of time it has over water in the BoC/Gulf.

Mid to north Texas or Mexico?

[hurricaneCW]

Looking at the loop, it seems to be organizing fairly quickly now, just look at the intense convection. I have a feeling the storm may rapidly intensify both before the Yucatan and after. This might play a role in its track in the next few days. The heat in the GOM is just waiting to be tapped.

[Pedro Fernández]

Looking at the loop, it seems to be organizing fairly quickly now, just look at the intense convection. I have a feeling the storm may rapidly intensify both before the Yucatan and after. This might play a role in its track in the next few days. The heat in the GOM is just waiting to be tapped.

I think so.

By the way, Jeff Masters has updated his blog. A really interesting update: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1518

I expect surprises with ALEX despite of conservative thoughts.

[cycloneye]

First visible images.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Reading through the NHC discussion on the intensity forecast, the one thing I think we need to watch out for is how much strengthening occurs once Alex is in the BOC. SSTs are very warm and the upper-level winds appear that they will be very favorable for strengthening. I do think it could become a hurricane in the BOC, especially if it moves as slow as forecast. So, I wouldn't be surprised for the NHC to keep increasing its intensity forecast.

One thing is for sure, models are generally horrible with their intensity forecasts.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 261200
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

CORRECTED TO CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM ALEX

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALEX...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALEX ONE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well..looks like we now have TS Alex. I'll need to make a new forcast...*sigh*

Does anyone know when Recon is going to go out there?

[cycloneye]

Well..looks like we now have TS Alex. I'll need to make a new forcast...*sigh*

Does anyone know when Recon is going to go out there?

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