ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thanks Cycloneye.

[ToxicTiger]

I'm only an amateur, but the steering currents for this system look pretty clear to me, unless that ridge gets pushed out.

[cycloneye]

Web Cam in Belize. Go to link at my signature below and see more cams from Yucatan at first post of thread.

[Macrocane]

So finally after a long wait the Atlantic has gave birth to Alex and it did it in June so we can't say it is a late start season. Alex is producing strong convection and it has a nice structure this morning, let's hope that it doesn't cause flooding in Central America that has been already flooded by Agatha.

[HouTXmetro]

It's amazing how gigantic Alex is compared to a cat 3 Darby to it's West. Thank God this formed later than sooner and is about to run into land. I could only imagine if J. Bastardi was right and Alex formed more typical to a West Pacific Typhoon.

[gatorcane]

I'm only an amateur, but the steering currents for this system look pretty clear to me, unless that ridge gets pushed out.

The general rule is that weak (shallow) systems or waves follow the low-level flow (850MB layer winds). Strong (deeper) systems following the mid-level flow (500MB layer winds). That chart that you provided shows the low-level (not lowest) 700MB flow. It turns out that the mid-level flow is about the same at the moment. Also, one thing else to keep in mind is that wind flow is a snapshot so does not indicate what windflow will exist in the future.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Winds now at 40kts.

AL, 01, 2010062612, , BEST, 0, 171N, 857W, 40, 1004, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[tolakram]

Nice loop, especially if sped up. Taking snapshots every 10 or so minutes. These are the make-your-own loops created from these instructions: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/getsatellite.html

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Closer:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

and the Zoom 1 Visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[mpic]

Is there any chance at all that it's contact with land with tear it up and kill it before it gets into the Gulf? Usually someone mentions this, but haven't seen any reference so far. Is it because the land down there is flatter than say Cuba? Please pardon my newbee ignorance.

[jlauderdal]

Is there any chance at all that it's contact with land with tear it up and kill it before it gets into the Gulf? Usually someone mentions this, but haven't seen any reference so far. Is it because the land down there is flatter than say Cuba? Please pardon my newbee ignorance.

yes, especially if it slows up over land however that is not in the cards for this system at this time.

[HURAKAN]

Is there any chance at all that it's contact with land with tear it up and kill it before it gets into the Gulf? Usually someone mentions this, but haven't seen any reference so far. Is it because the land down there is flatter than say Cuba? Please pardon my newbee ignorance.

Unlikely to get killed. Yucatan is as flat as Kansas, maybe flatter!!! It will very likely weaken back to depression, but not get killed.

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO Yucatan wo't kill it, maybe will weaken it but not destroy it, I mentioned this examples a few days ago:

2002 Isidore
2005 Wilma
2005 Stan
2007 Dean
2008 Dolly

All of them survived the Yucatan Peninsula. Isidore, Wilma and Dean weakened considerably but Stan and Dolly weaken slightly, it seems that tropical storms can handle better the track over Yucatan so Alex won't weaken that much.

[HURAKAN]

STAN is a good analog

[HURAKAN]

Alex looks like a storm from the Western Pacific, wow

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a topografy graphic of the Yucatan to see the almost mountain free Penninsula?

[Cape Verde]

I'm definitely not an amateur forecaster, but I don't see anything in the discussion here that rules out a possibility that Alex reforms in the BOC, strengthens, and then is a coasthugger along the Mexican and then Texas coast.

As a TS or minimal hurricane offshore, it shouldn't be that big of a deal if the forward motion is fast enough, although the landfall would be problematic.

[HURAKAN]

[KatDaddy]

Alex is a very large June system. More models are coming in line with Euro which points to a NE MEX landfall. Joe Bastardi is also calling for a NE MEX landfall but did state it could be close to S TX. He believes this will become the first hurricane of the 2010 season.

[Weatherfreak000]

Alex has allday to organize under some of the most conducive conditions possible.


Definitely could see a stronger storm. A stronger storm equals a wilder track in the GOM.

[thetruesms]

Is there any chance at all that it's contact with land with tear it up and kill it before it gets into the Gulf? Usually someone mentions this, but haven't seen any reference so far. Is it because the land down there is flatter than say Cuba? Please pardon my newbee ignorance.

Unlikely to get killed. Yucatan is as flat as Kansas, maybe flatter!!! It will very likely weaken back to depression, but not get killed.

The Yucatan does have significantly more trees than Kansas, however!

I'm glad the model envelope is more or less on the same page now. The forecast track now makes more physical sense than it did in the first advisory.