SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:52am EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon,
extending to the adjacent inland.

At 4:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
1020 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1180 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to begin moving in a more southwesterly
direction towards the Queensland coast today. It is expected to remain about the
same strength.

On current predictions the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the
coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay. However, it is important to
understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook period.

Damaging winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon during Saturday, and
increase further on Saturday night as the cyclone approaches the coast.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these
conditions.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 157.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 972 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am EST Friday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HurricaneBill]

Don't let your guard down. Remember Cyclone Alby in 1978.

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/perth/alby.shtml

[HURAKAN]

70 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1845 UTC 18/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 157.6E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [200 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 972 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 160 nm [295 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [50 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/0600: 18.1S 156.4E: 040 [075]: 065 [120]: 969
+24: 19/1800: 19.1S 154.4E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 961
+36: 20/0600: 19.7S 151.7E: 100 [190]: 075 [140]: 960
+48: 20/1800: 20.1S 148.9E: 135 [250]: 080 [150]: 956
+60: 21/0600: 20.3S 146.2E: 180 [340]: 030 [055]: 996
+72: 21/1800: 20.4S 143.7E: 230 [425]: 025 [045]: 999
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours. Dvorak analysis
based on curved band with 0.9 wrap for DT 3.5. MET is 3.5, PAT is 4.0. CI held
at 4.5. The recent weakening trend is most likely due to cooler sea surface
temperatures less than 26C caused by ocean upwelling resulting from the slow
movement in the past 48 hours. Models indicate upper conditions will become more
favourable by Saturday for increased venting and deepening.

Following a prolonged period of light steering, a mid-level ridge is beginning
to develop south of the system and Ului should begin to accelerate and track to
the west southwest towards the Queensland coast later today.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0100 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[Mathew]

My apologies, it would seem there is some conflicting information out there, check out this link and it confirms what I have said.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws_table.shtml?large

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:14am EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

Correction: To include mention of adjacent inland areas in the watch region.
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon,
extending to the adjacent inland areas.

At 10:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
950 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1100 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened to category two intensity this morning and is
now moving to the southwest towards the Queensland coast.

It now appears unlikely that the cyclone will reintensify. The most likely
scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning between Cardwell
and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon later on Saturday,
then increase further Sunday morning as the cyclone nears the coast then extend
to the adjacent inland parts.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these
conditions.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 156.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0115 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 156.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [225 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1200: 18.1S 155.4E: 035 [065]: 055 [100]: 982
+24: 20/0000: 19.2S 153.1E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 983
+36: 20/1200: 19.9S 150.6E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 21/0000: 20.4S 147.7E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 21/1200: 20.5S 145.5E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 22/0000: 20.4S 143.0E: 180 [335]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to increasing
northwesterly wind shear of about 20 knots. Dvorak analysis based on shear
pattern, the low level circulation being on the northern edge of the deep
convection yielding a DT of 3.0, MET=2.5, PT=3.0 so DT=3.0 with CI being held
higher at 4.0 and max wind at 60 knots. This is consistent with latest AMSU
estimates. ASCAT shows region of 50+ knots and asymmetric gale region biased to
the south.

It now appears the shear will remain a factor in hampering any possible
re-development, although forecast intensity conservatively held at category 2
through to landfall. The increased speed of motion should enhance winds on the
southern side of the cyclone.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 156.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 156.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.7S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.7S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.3S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.5S 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 19.4S 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 156.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
630 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
A 182148Z 37 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A MICROWAVE
EYE WITH SLIGHT EROSION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THIS IMAGE AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN RECENT SATELLITE FIXES
FROM PGTW AND ABRF LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT
POSITION. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A
REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDUCED BY THE
PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.
THIS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INDUCED STEADY WEAKENING OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS DESPITE GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER THE ONGOING INFLUENCE OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST FAVORS PERSISTENCE AND IS CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 55 knots

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:46pm EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr.

At 10:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
770 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
950 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest
towards the Queensland coast.

The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning
between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by
landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then
increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday
morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Ayr and Yeppoon should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight
hours.
People between Cardwell and Ayr and adjacent inland parts should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.0 degrees South 155.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 983 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am EST Saturday 20 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1245 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.0S
Longitude: 155.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/0000: 19.0S 153.5E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 984
+24: 20/1200: 19.7S 151.1E: 065 [120]: 055 [100]: 984
+36: 21/0000: 20.2S 148.4E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 988
+48: 21/1200: 20.4S 146.0E: 120 [220]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 22/0000: 20.2S 143.5E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 22/1200: 18.6S 140.9E: 180 [335]: 025 [045]: 1004
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to northwesterly
wind shear, however shear has appeared to weaken over the past 6 hours. Dvorak
analysis still based on shear pattern, the low level circulation being within
approx. 0.5 degrees of convection yielding a DT of 3.0, MET/PT=3.0, DT=3.0 with
CI being held higher at 3.5 and max wind at 55 knots. The system has taken on a
more curved band structure on most recent satellite images.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is held at category two through to landfall based on the
prospect of the shear continuing to ease during Saturday, arresting the
weakening trend. It remains possible that the Dvorak based intensity may
decrease further in the short term, the combination of convection persisting to
the south aided by WSW movement of 10 knots is expected to maintain the maximum
winds of at least 50 knots to the south of the system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1900 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

It's nothing compared to the monster it once was

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 18.0S 155.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0S 155.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 18.8S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.5S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.8S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.8S 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LOSS IN
DEEP CONVECTION. A 190909Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMS THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST HAS CAUSED
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, WHICH HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF TC 20P. ULUI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN AUSTRALIA AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TC
20P WILL WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS, PRIOR TO
REACHING LAND AFTER TAU 36, WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY
TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 200300Z AND 201500Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 154.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 154.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 19.9S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.5S 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.7S 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 20.5S 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 153.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LOSS IN
DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 191855Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
THOUGH IT ALSO CONFIRMS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
HAS CAUSED INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF TC 20P. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PERSISTENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
KNOTS FROM PGTW, ABRF, AND KNES. TC ULUI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TC 20P WILL
WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS, PRIOR TO REACHING LAND
AFTER TAU 24, WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:05am EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Townsville to Yeppoon and
inland between Charters Towers and Clermont.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cardwell to Townsville and
extending inland of the warning area.

At 10:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
465 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
680 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Sarina early Sunday ,
possibly re-intensifying to a category 3 system before landfall. The cyclone is
then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 170 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Townsville and Yeppoon later
today, then extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday.

Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Townsville to Yeppoon and inland between Charters Towers and
Clermont should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially
securing boats and property using available daylight hours.
People between Cardwell to Townsville and extending inland of the warning area
should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat
increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 19.6 degrees South 153.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 978 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm EST Saturday 20 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0135 UTC 20/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.6S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 190 nm [350 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 20/1200: 20.3S 150.5E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 977
+24: 21/0000: 20.9S 147.5E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 985
+36: 21/1200: 21.1S 145.0E: 110 [210]: 030 [055]: 1002
+48: 22/0000: 20.9S 142.2E: 145 [270]: 025 [045]: 1005
+60: 22/1200: 18.8S 139.3E: 190 [355]: 025 [045]: 1008
+72: 23/0000: 15.5S 136.2E: 240 [445]: 025 [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
Following a period of weakening due to northwesterly wind shear, Tropical
Cyclone Ului has shown increased organisation in the last 6 hours with LLCC now
under deep convection.

Dvorak analysis gave an ambiguous curbed band of 0.9 wrap yielding DT of 3.5.
MET of 4.0 with PAT of 3.5. Hence FT/CI = 3.5.

AMSU estimates suggest higher wind speeds are possible. Surface observations a
large area of storm force winds.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track continuing west southwest
today and crossing the coast between Ayr and Sarina early on Sunday morning,
steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there is a higher than
normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is based on some development continuing, into weak category 3
near landfall. However models do not suggest further intensification so some
doubt remains on the system's reponse to shear.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RattleMan]

My apologies, it would seem there is some conflicting information out there, check out this link and it confirms what I have said.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws_table.shtml?large

Are you basing your thoughts on this bulletin?

--------------------------------------------
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:56am EST on Thursday the 18th of March 2010

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 157.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals
--------------------------------------------

If this is the fact, be aware that the BoM is indicating gusts, not sustained winds. Gusts are typically higher. At the time Ului was a Category 2 on the SSHS (80kt 10-min per BoM's technical bulletin 18/0000z).