ATL : INVEST 90L

[cwachal]

I believe the C actually stands for current, so the model is expecting to slowly loose warm core properties, which makes sense given the upper low weeakens and SST's cool down.

well it shows it getting slightly more warmed core just over the next 12 hours and then heading toward cold core

[cwachal]

I suggest you don't get too carried away with your enthusiasm for seeing this named too soon. I'm looking at a plot of surface obs with a satellite overlay that says we have only a very broad circulation about 600 miles across with the main center well to the SW of any convection. It has a long way to go to become Alex. Winds around the low are generally in the 20-25 kt range. If the convection does centralize, though, the center should tighten over the next day or two. Could see STS Alex out of this, but not within 24 hrs most likely. If the NHC thought otherwise, they wouldn't be saying only a 30% chance of development over the next 48 hrs.

Yeah...The low under the convection really needs to tighten up some.

Question-are subtropical storms warm core or cold core(i need to know)?

"Yes"

[Janie2006]

Certainly an interesting feature and perhaps a precursor of what's to come, but I think it's going to face a good struggle in reaching even STS status at this point in time.

[HURAKAN]

Immense system

[cycloneye]

12 UTC Best Track

AL, 90, 2010052412, , BEST, 0, 270N, 700W, 35, 1005, LO

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[cwachal]

Looks like some convection over the center

[Pedro Fernández]

I see this system quite worse than yesterday... Since w-shear has rised up to 30 KT over the system, and SAL and dry ir are playing on it.

Cyclone Phase diagrams from GFS don't anticipate deepening, as they pointed yesterday.

Now, I don't see too much opportunities for the 90L.

[cwachal]

this storm looks to be trying and cut off that dry air that has been giving the storm a hard time all along

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH WINDS
TO GALE FORCE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cwachal]

if you watch the loop and look at that area you will see the center of circulation and storms developing right over the center

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW from http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[capepoint]

good morning from the southern outer banks of North Carolina.
Sky almost looks tropical this morning. Dark offshore, with showers moving inland. Very light breezes, ocean not too rough.
All in all, not too bad. We like this weather, it keeps the tourists home. lol.

Not expecting much from this, maybe an increased rip current threat, and some showers, but we need the rain, so let it come.
I'm going fishing out on Cape Lookout Shoals in about an hour. I have a 23 foot boat, so that tells you how bad the conditions are.

[cwachal]

Look at the area of dropping wind shear almost all of the MDR and the region over where 90L is

[Category 5]

If this is gonna make a move its gonna have to do it fast IMO.

[cwachal]

Vorticity has increased over the area I pointed out earlier

[Lowpressure]

Interesting to watch the interaction with the other low near the OBX.

[Category 5]

Umm, am I crazy, or do I see multiple spinups on the visible?

[cwachal]

[HURAKAN]

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