ATL : INVEST 92L - MODELS

[Ivanhater]

[HouTXmetro]

interesting

[Ivanhater]

00z gfs

[Ivanhater]

Booooo

[boca]

I wonder if thats 92L in the 00GFS up in your area Ivanhater.

[Ivanhater]

I wonder if thats 92L in the 00GFS up in your area Ivanhater.

It is...stronger on this run. Comes off Western Cuba and tightens in the gulf

[Weatherfreak000]

If this image is accurate...aren't we seeing 92L in about...20kts of shear....considering the shear is on the decrease in that area?

I am beginning to wonder if the shear is just going to magically push away from this invest until it develops..

[Ivanhater]

[Nimbus]

The wave train in that 10 day GFS is quite far south and the mid atlantic ridge parks the end of the line at the gulf for early July. Yuck..

[cycloneye]

06 UTC BAMS

291
WHXX01 KWBC 191115
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1115 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100619 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100619 0600 100619 1800 100620 0600 100620 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 65.4W 17.4N 68.2W 17.6N 70.7W 18.1N 73.1W
BAMD 16.9N 65.4W 17.2N 66.7W 17.6N 68.0W 18.2N 69.3W
BAMM 16.9N 65.4W 17.2N 67.5W 17.3N 69.5W 17.7N 71.3W
LBAR 16.9N 65.4W 17.2N 67.3W 17.6N 69.6W 18.2N 71.9W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100621 0600 100622 0600 100623 0600 100624 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 75.1W 19.4N 78.8W 20.3N 81.9W 20.8N 84.2W
BAMD 19.0N 70.7W 21.1N 73.6W 23.1N 76.2W 25.2N 78.4W
BAMM 18.2N 72.8W 19.6N 75.6W 21.2N 78.2W 23.0N 79.9W
LBAR 19.0N 73.9W 21.5N 77.9W 24.0N 81.4W 26.3N 84.0W
SHIP 33KTS 39KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 29KTS 38KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 65.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 63.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.1N LONM24 = 60.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[SETXWXLADY]

Bit of confusion for me at least. The 240CMC and ECMWF both show a tropical storm in the western GOM. However I'm not sure its 92L at that time.





The reason I'm unsure about them showing 92l is for one, CMC shows something hitting Texas before then at 192hrs



And from this NWS discussion they mention the ECMWF bringing 92l to Texas as an open wave before the 240hr mark. But that I don't see on the model. The GFS sticking to their guns bringing 92l ashore on Fl. panhandle.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
644 AM CDT SAT JUN 19 2010 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LCH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

LASTLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO THE GULF.
THE GFS ACCOMPLISHES THIS WITH WHAT IS NOW AN INVEST
AREA...92L...NEAR PUERTO RICO...AND DOES IT SOONER. THE ECMWF GOES
A DIFFERENT ROUTE AND LATER...TAKING 92L INTO THE TX COAST AS AN
OPEN WAVE...AND DEVELOPING SOMETHING NOT YET PRESENT OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. WHETHER EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS MATERIALIZES OR
NOT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THE ADVICE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS TO
SIMPLY KEEP UP WITH THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

No matter which way it goes seems like things are picking up fast.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC BAMS

Almost a hurricane but there is some land interaction on the BAMM track.

WHXX01 KWBC 191316
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1316 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100619 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100619 1200 100620 0000 100620 1200 100621 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 67.0W 17.4N 69.8W 17.6N 72.6W 18.1N 75.1W
BAMD 17.1N 67.0W 17.4N 68.3W 17.7N 69.7W 18.4N 71.1W
BAMM 17.1N 67.0W 17.3N 69.2W 17.5N 71.3W 18.0N 73.1W
LBAR 17.1N 67.0W 17.5N 69.1W 18.0N 71.5W 18.7N 73.7W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100621 1200 100622 1200 100623 1200 100624 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.5N 77.3W 19.1N 81.4W 19.6N 84.5W 19.4N 87.0W
BAMD 19.1N 72.5W 20.9N 75.4W 22.9N 77.8W 25.2N 79.8W
BAMM 18.5N 74.9W 19.7N 78.1W 21.1N 80.4W 22.5N 81.8W
LBAR 19.6N 75.8W 22.1N 79.8W 24.3N 83.1W 26.2N 85.9W
SHIP 37KTS 42KTS 51KTS 62KTS
DSHP 36KTS 41KTS 49KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 67.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 16.7N LONM12 = 64.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 16.2N LONM24 = 62.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has what may be left of 92L in the middle of GOM at 162 hours.

[Ivanhater]

GFS getting stronger each run..not liking the trend

[cycloneye]

Finnally,after emerging Africa on the 9th of June,it will make a landfall to have it's definite demise,in the Texas coast.

[southerngale]

So Texas is probably the safest place to be this far out...

[Flyinman]

I always hate when Texas is the safest place to be this far out!! That seems to to be good luck for us. While we need the rain, I do not want any major system. The models are getting very interesting though.

[Nimbus]

Theoretically if the models are tracking the storm differently due to forecast intensity, the weakest tropical wave scenario would track more westerly possibly into Mexico or southern Texas. A more aggressive storm spinning up earlier might track north into Louisiana or even hook up into Florida's west coast. I'm basing this partially on the different steering currents portrayed by the shallow BAM VS the deep layer BAM.

[artist]

where is the jet stream set up at this point?

[AdamFirst]

HWRF has what looks like a tropical storm emerging from Florida Bay into the SE GOM in about 96 hours

This is on the model run for Celia in the EPAC however