ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[Brent]

what I dont get is it does this weird little jog around Cuba very odd.....

Yeah, it's combining tonights run and last nights. That is why you see it jump

That's why it doesn't make sense.

[Ivanhater]

Nothing crazy on tonight's run

[Wx_Warrior]

There you go Ivan...that other you can delete off your favs...LOL

[ROCK]

Man that is what I get for following a Eastern member's model page....how jacked it that when the 0hr say 6/22 0Z but yet it doesnt update the entire loop....huh...

[HouTXmetro]

I don't see much on the Euro, is that a weak system headed into Texas?

[Brent]

Nothing crazy on tonight's run

That was... not interesting.

[Wx_Warrior]

Heavy rainmaker there....way too early for "it's going here, hide the chickens and hens..."

[ROCK]

the Euro web site updated faster than Allan's.....nice...and here I thought I was special...

the last run is similar to 12z also...

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock. It's also late.

Well tonight was interesting. We have a range from a major hurricane to a weak tropical storm. Tomorrow's models will be interesting...

[Ivanhater]

One last note. If we see a tropical storm in the Gulf like the euro shows, it will likely be stronger given the SST's and Upper level ridging in place.

[tolakram]

Nice (sarcasm), the Canadian has two storms heading toward the coast. Interesting echo.

[KWT]

Wow that GFDL probably pulled exactly the same stunt that made that mega 0z ECM yesterday.

FWIW the ECM probably looks the most realisitic right now IMO, probably a mid range TS there.

[SETXWXLADY]

Nice (sarcasm), the Canadian has two storms heading toward the coast. Interesting echo.

Yeah. And couple a days later has two more lows (storms maybe) hitting NE GOM.

[abajan]

Along with the xtrap it's the Abbot and Costello of hurricane models. Totally useless. I would ignore it.

And it's a good idea ignore XTRP for forecasting purposes because it's not a model
It's just an extrapolation from past 12-hr motion...

Yep. Every year we get jokes about how accurate the XTRP is. It is of little value IMO and perhaps it would be better to replace it with a line passing through the points of where the system has already been. Of course, a possible downside to such a change would be the necessity in most instances to show charts encompassing wider areas.

BTW, great football match yesterday, littlevince. Practically all of the goals were superbly executed. I'm eagerly looking forward to the Portugal vs Brazil game on Friday!

[KWT]

The ECM doesn't even develop this region, seems like that model is developing something from the far SW of the Caribbean...though I suspect given it still does develop clearly conditions are going to be condusive to development to some extent.

[ROCK]

models are a mess right now........our best bet is to look at the upper air forecasts long range. Gives you an idea where the ridge will be and most important where it wont be.......

[KWT]

06z GFDL isn't really that keen on this system, develops a weak TD/TS and takes it WNW, then reforms the whole lot again further west and eventually gets into the W.Gulf.

[srainhoutx]

For what it is worth...

[cycloneye]

SHIP intensity continues very to be very bullish.

12 UTC BAMS

WHXX01 KWBC 221243
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1243 UTC TUE JUN 22 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100622 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100622 1200 100623 0000 100623 1200 100624 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 72.3W 16.2N 74.7W 17.0N 77.1W 17.8N 79.2W
BAMD 15.3N 72.3W 16.0N 74.3W 16.6N 76.1W 16.9N 77.8W
BAMM 15.3N 72.3W 16.1N 74.5W 16.8N 76.7W 17.5N 78.7W
LBAR 15.3N 72.3W 16.2N 74.5W 17.2N 76.8W 18.0N 79.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100624 1200 100625 1200 100626 1200 100627 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 81.5W 19.1N 85.1W 20.0N 88.1W 21.2N 90.6W
BAMD 17.0N 79.3W 17.3N 82.6W 17.8N 85.8W 18.4N 88.9W
BAMM 17.8N 80.5W 18.2N 83.9W 19.0N 86.8W 20.0N 89.3W
LBAR 18.6N 81.0W 20.0N 84.9W 21.9N 87.9W 23.6N 89.6W
SHIP 51KTS 66KTS 80KTS 91KTS
DSHP 51KTS 66KTS 80KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.3N LONCUR = 72.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 14.9N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 67.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ROCK]

its so weird to see that Luis ...since there is nothing out there...We know the area is primed but 93L is still having a hard time organizing....