ATL: INVEST 95L - DISCUSSION

[artist]

48 hours

Hurakan - Would you have a link to where you got that image? Do they have one for Tuesday? My FIL will be traveling from Florida to Tx that day and is really worried about whether there will be lots of rain he will have to drive through.

[HURAKAN]

1900 Season Storms ... I didn't know the Internet was that old!!!

[HURAKAN]

48 hours

Hurakan - Would you have a link to where you got that image? Do they have one for Tuesday? My FIL will be traveling from Florida to Tx that day and is really worried about whether there will be lots of rain he will have to drive through.

Link - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/index.php?prog=48

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[KWT]

The LLC is trying to wrap some convection around it which is a sign of shear decreasing but I think Wxman57 is right in that its not going to have enough time to do anything unless it really does wrap up very fast indeed.

[Fourman]

Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

Posted by: JeffMasters, 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010
A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.

Good thing I have all my gear clean, packed and ready to go.....again.

[Ikester]

Looking more and more like an Alicia...though this thing doesn't have a prayer on being an Alicia (thankfully)

[MGC]

Too much dry air to the north, and a little too much shear. Just gonna be a rain maker IMO.....MGC

[KWT]

I think the only chance this has of developing is if the system takes long enough to come ashore or doesn't lift up as early as expected. Its probably going to need 48-72hrs to really pull itself together but if it can get that time then it has a chance.

Still I think it'll be inland in about 36hrs time...or even earlier if Wxman57 is right. Just a rainmaker, probably some decent convection will fire up with this low.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree, I don't think it has a prayer. But need to watch the area in the western Carib. and out east of Florida. Models are off and on with both features.

[HURAKAN]

Depicted not connected to a cold front

[HURAKAN]

Not looking that bad, but still ways off from development

[caneman]

Agree, think it will be a rain maker. We've had an unbelievable amount of rain from this being stalled over us. My pool overflowed in just 2 or 3 hours after draining it. We need the rain but not all at once. Looks like some other interesting areas coming together though.

[Dean4Storms]

Not so fast my friends. I took another long look at high resolution visibles and I see the pretty much naked swirl we've been following looking as if it has either dissipated and/or has gotten pulled eastward by another low now near the convection that was to its SE!! Check the loops again, you'll even see new convection beginning to fire and a circulation just off the east and that is the one I think has possibly pulled the naked swirl in toward it!!

[HURAKAN]

In a hyperactive year, you can't discount anything.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be about 100 miles or so ESE of our now elongated swirl. When you speed up the animation you can see the rotation just before the high clouds begin to move over it. I think we have competing lows out there now and the one to the east has convection popping all around it and in the center of the rotation. This may also explain why our little swirl is now looking more E to W elongated.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm seeing this near 86.5W 27.5N

[Cryomaniac]

In a hyperactive year, you can't discount anything.

Definitely.

[HURAKAN]

Looks mostly stationary at the moment

[caneman]

Well, you may be right Dean but IMHO opinion there are far too many things going on combined with amount of time left over water for much to come of it but ya' never know.