ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan,
Am I reading this right? (About 20 kts SE over 96L )Thanks in advance

yes, 20 knots, which isn't that bad.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, you can see in the recorded data overnight that a low passed over the buoy in the Yucatan pass. Check this data. The winds dropped during the passage.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[HouTXmetro]

Can a pro met such as WXman or AFM chime in on what's going on today?

[Dean4Storms]

wind shear isn't bad

Hurakan,
Am I reading this right? (About 20 kts SE over 96L )Thanks in advance

I don't know Hurakan, if take into account that 96L is moving NNW against this 20kt shear moving SSE it could actually be 30kt vertical wind shear at least in combination.

[KWT]

Hurakan,
Am I reading this right? (About 20 kts SE over 96L )Thanks in advance

yes, 20 knots, which isn't that bad.

20kts is going to be pretty bad giving the actual shear levels going against 96L is going to be higher then 20kts given its forward speed it has right now.

[HurricaneRobert]

Are there dueling centers? If it does develop it looks like it will form way to the south which would cause it to miss the Yucatan channel.

[hurricaneCW]

It seems like the Gulf, the Caribbean, and the rest of the Atlantic are still quite hostile. You can have a lot of upward motion, tons of convection, and very low pressures but if conditions aloft aren't conducive for all of that to spin up anything, than you won't get anything. I still think 96L will develop but it might be a slow process like Alex was. So far this season has a few anomalies that would support high activity such as water temperatures and low pressures.

Yet this season has a bit more negatives than 2005 had so far. Overall wind shear seems to be a great deal higher than 2005 was at this time and there is plenty of dry air around. However, once conditions improve just a little bit more than we should see many developments. If conditions were just a bit more favorable, all of the disturbances mentioned yesterday would have probably developed.

[Dean4Storms]

I think the problem here is that the lower level say below 850mb is screaming toward the NNW thus the strong SSE winds and this in combination with the 20kt. shear out of the NW above is causing any mid and upper level structure to be left behind very quickly, thus all the mid level turning we are seeing to the SSE.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we still need to watch that area east of Honduras around 16.5n 84w, if it persists all day while the other low races away it could develop a surface low there as well.

[KWT]

Yeah sounds about right Dean. If this hadn't occured we probably would have had a system develop out of that area today as it was starting to really look the part but now it seems to be in more trouble....

ps, as for your second post, the convection down there is fairly stubborn and obviously if we can keep the turning down there then we could well need to watch down there...

[wxman57]

Development chances definitely appear to be diminishing. Lowest pressures are in the Yucatan Channel, not near Honduras. Looked impressive yesterday but not now. And it looks like it may be inland into Louisiana or east Texas within 72 hours now. Not a lot of time for something so disorganized to develop. I think the NHC's 40% is quite generous. Maybe closer to 20%.

[redfish1]

Development chances definitely appear to be diminishing. Lowest pressures are in the Yucatan Channel, not near Honduras. Looked impressive yesterday but not now. And it looks like it may be inland into Louisiana or east Texas within 72 hours now. Not a lot of time for something so disorganized to develop. I think the NHC's 40% is quite generous. Maybe closer to 20%.

that is still 3 or 4 days over the GOM anything can happen

[AJC3]

20kts is going to be pretty bad giving the actual shear levels going against 96L is going to be higher then 20kts given its forward speed it has right now.

I think the problem here is that the lower level say below 850mb is screaming toward the NNW thus the strong SSE winds and this in combination with the 20kt. shear out of the NW above is causing any mid and upper level structure to be left behind very quickly, thus all the mid level turning we are seeing to the SSE.

The only reason one would even consider either adding or subtracting the storm motion vector to the magnitude of shear shown on the CIMSS shear product is if there is a huge disparity between the 925-700 mean environmental wind and the motion of the disturbance, since it is already vectorially subtracted from the mean upper level (150-300MB) wind to compute the shear.

In this case, the environmental wind looks to be pretty well aligned with the storm motion, so there is no reason to believe that there would be an increase in shear over the magnitude of what the CIMSS shear product is diagnosing.

[cycloneye]

TAFB position on 48 hours.

[Portastorm]

Development chances definitely appear to be diminishing. Lowest pressures are in the Yucatan Channel, not near Honduras. Looked impressive yesterday but not now. And it looks like it may be inland into Louisiana or east Texas within 72 hours now. Not a lot of time for something so disorganized to develop. I think the NHC's 40% is quite generous. Maybe closer to 20%.

that is still 3 or 4 days over the GOM anything can happen

Redfish1, while technically "anything can happen" in the GOM, you will see over time that wxman57 is a seasoned pro met who usually is spot on with his forecasts. Satellite this morning as well as all of the computer modeling fully support what he is saying. Also, if you look at the wind flow, lower level winds are screaming from the southeast and will indeed push this mess of clouds onto the coast late this week.

[Stephanie]

Development chances definitely appear to be diminishing. Lowest pressures are in the Yucatan Channel, not near Honduras. Looked impressive yesterday but not now. And it looks like it may be inland into Louisiana or east Texas within 72 hours now. Not a lot of time for something so disorganized to develop. I think the NHC's 40% is quite generous. Maybe closer to 20%.

that is still 3 or 4 days over the GOM anything can happen

Redfish1, while technically "anything can happen" in the GOM, you will see over time that wxman57 is a seasoned pro met who usually is spot on with his forecasts. Satellite this morning as well as all of the computer modeling fully support what he is saying. Also, if you look at the wind flow, lower level winds are screaming from the southeast and will indeed push this mess of clouds onto the coast late this week.

Thank you Portastorm.

[KWT]

Redfish1, while technically "anything can happen" in the GOM, you will see over time that wxman57 is a seasoned pro met who usually is spot on with his forecasts. Satellite this morning as well as all of the computer modeling fully support what he is saying. Also, if you look at the wind flow, lower level winds are screaming from the southeast and will indeed push this mess of clouds onto the coast late this week.

Yeah I agree with this you can see the low level clouds really surging upto the NW/NNW through the Yucatan channel...

20kts of shear is still going to cause real issues when you've got an already messy situation aloft with large regions of convergence/divergence that are well spread out. Alex had similar problems before it finally got its act on.

[srainhoutx]

I am beginning to become concerned that yet another heavy rainfall event may play out across TX and LA. We certainly have been in a pattern to bring disturbances toward the Western Gulf this early season.

[rockyman]

New convection is beginning to pop in Yucatan Channel, near the surface low.

I haven't looked too carefully yet, but the old GFS showed this type of solution (energy getting pulled rapidly north, leaving something behind) yesterday.

[Portastorm]

I am beginning to become concerned that yet another heavy rainfall event may play out across TX and LA. We certainly have been in a pattern to bring disturbances toward the Western Gulf this early season.

Agreed srain. EWX in their forecast discussion this morning mentioned an inverted trough along the Gulf Coast moving west into Texas later this week. Couple that with the potential of either 95L or 96L (or both) moving into the state and then ... BOOM ... flooding issues will quickly return.

BTW, interesting things happening with the remnants of Alex out in west central Texas. Copious rains falling and Amistad Reservoir (Del Rio) is now 3 feet over its flood pool level! Hasn't happened in many years.