WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[KWT]

That track looks more realistic given what the models do but it may well have gone a little too far to the east this time round. I think the ECM track is pretty solid generally towards S.Korea or into a recurve towards S.Japan.

[supercane]

Morning vis.

[StormingB81]

Getting ready for the fun

[StormingB81]

looking at the satallite it doesnt look to good this morning...any thoughts?

[StormingB81]

I was looking at a storm log they saying it is starting to organize with less shear and the presure is dropping..we shall see what happends

[oaba09]

We're experiencing rainy and windy conditions at the moment......Kinda makes me wanna stay in bed LOL

[StormingB81]

We are partly couldy here in Okinawa..guess the calm before the storm

[oaba09]

We are partly couldy here in Okinawa..guess the calm before the storm

Good luck mate!

[StormingB81]

thank you..still wondering what the forcast calls for is it suposed to strengthen much or not

[supercane]

00Z position from NRL KML file with 18Z position added for comparison:

Tropical Cyclone 96W

08 Aug 2010 0000Z
Location: 22.2 124.7
Winds: 25 knots
Central Pressure: 1004 hPa

07 Aug 2010 1800Z
Location: 21.6 123.6
Winds: 20 knots
Central Pressure: 1007 hPa

Still generally N motion

[supercane]

JTWC will have to decide soon to continue TCFA given no advisory written. I suspect they will reissue.

[scb_weather_boi]

Do i see another invest south of Guam?

[supercane]

thank you..still wondering what the forcast calls for is it suposed to strengthen much or not

The reason you haven't gotten an answer isn't because people are ignoring you; it's because no agency apart from PAGASA (Philippines) is issuing forecast advisories on 96W, as JTWC doesn't consider it yet a TD and JMA only issues forecasts for systems they believe will be reach TS strength within 24hr. Given this and the current disorganized state of the system, any intensification will be slow to occur. As for the track, I would anticipate a general N to NE motion to continue given the current reverse-oriented monsoon trough. This appears to be consistent with the model output thus far.

If you have enough of a technical background, see Lander, Mark A., 1996: Specific Tropical Cyclone Track Types and Unusual Tropical Cyclone Motions Associated with a Reverse-Oriented Monsoon Trough in the Western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 170-186; for further discussion about the reverse-oriented monsoon trough.

[supercane]

JTWC now calling this TD 5W:

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151Z AUG 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 22.2N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 26.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 28.4N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.7N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 34.1N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 38.1N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7N 124.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 070151Z AUG 10
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 070200).//
NNNN

[supercane]

Forecast graphic for TD 5W from JTWC keeps system weak and heads west of Ryukyu Islands up toward South Korea.

[supercane]

TD 05W first JTWC designated system since Typhoon Chanthu (18-22 JUL), giving WPac chance to pick up ACE, although with the above forecast won't be too much.

[supercane]

Taiwan radar still showing most of the rain off to the south, but this will come north as TD 5W lifts northward. Center off the screen to the east (Would be nice if there were links from the individual radar sites instead of just the composite image).

[Infdidoll]

Do i see another invest south of Guam?

I was noticing that, too- both on radar and on the NCEP/EMC models...but not sure what will come of it.

[StormingB81]

thank you..still wondering what the forcast calls for is it suposed to strengthen much or not

The reason you haven't gotten an answer isn't because people are ignoring you; it's because no agency apart from PAGASA (Philippines) is issuing forecast advisories on 96W, as JTWC doesn't consider it yet a TD and JMA only issues forecasts for systems they believe will be reach TS strength within 24hr. Given this and the current disorganized state of the system, any intensification will be slow to occur. As for the track, I would anticipate a general N to NE motion to continue given the current reverse-oriented monsoon trough. This appears to be consistent with the model output thus far.

If you have enough of a technical background, see Lander, Mark A., 1996: Specific Tropical Cyclone Track Types and Unusual Tropical Cyclone Motions Associated with a Reverse-Oriented Monsoon Trough in the Western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 11, 170-186; for further discussion about the reverse-oriented monsoon trough.

I wasnt sayign anyone here I am just saying in general half the agencies are saying somethign and others arnt and it makes you wonder what is really going on.

[supercane]

Nice image showing deep SW flow. Source: http://www.typhoon.gov.cn/en/picture/index.php