ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree that it's looking good Sandy,this may be a depression sometime tomorrow

[cycloneye]

They have to move the floater more to the NW as the system has been moving fast in that direction.

[HURAKAN]

nice organization

[MiamiHurricanes10]

93L continues to get more organized...05L tomorrow seems to get more and more likely.

[cycloneye]

Come in peeps and discuss about this system even if is a fish because these kind of systems are the best to track. If this were in the Caribbean or GOM it would have 100 pages not 10.

[Gustywind]

Come in peeps and discuss about this system even if is a fish because these kind of systems are the best to track. If this were in the Caribbean or GOM it would have 100 pages not 10.

good catch Luis you're right a system so far from the islands and any land is surely for some really boring, not surprisingly to have 10 pages afterall

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[Gustywind]

Looking great

After looking good, Looking great thanks you Hurakan for this

[HURAKAN]

Systems out here must meet higher standards to be upgraded, especially without QuikSCAT

[cycloneye]

Systems out here must meet higher standards to be upgraded, especially without QuikSCAT

Like Microwave,ascat,windscat and if a ship happens to be near the system.

[HURAKAN]

Systems out here must meet higher standards to be upgraded, especially without QuikSCAT

Like Microwave,ascat,windscat and if a ship happens to be near the system.

Yeah, but those are less reliable than our old QuikSCAT

[cycloneye]

Yeah, but those are less reliable than our old QuikSCAT

Yes, lets hope that they send a rocket soon with the new QuikSCAT.

[littlevince]

Climbing fast, obviously as an (unofficial) tropical depression.

[supercane]

Low shear underneath an upper-level anticyclone with an ULL to the west providing outflow. Map made in UW-CIMSS shows sat, obs, shear.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hopefully this goes ahead and gets named tomorrow, Colin sticks around for another couple of days, and finally the possible gulf storm comes to fruition next week, people will lay off a little about how slow the season is. A potential week of 3 named storms in the basin is pretty active to me, if only one has a chance to hit the mainland.

[HURAKAN]

508
ABNT20 KNHC 080545
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
1100 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[HURAKAN]

[supercane]

Think your top image is a little too far south. This might be better:



Your bottom image from earlier in the day shows a more convincing low than current imagery.

[supercane]

MW imagery shows support both for center around convection and near where ASCAT seems to identify farther south:

[supercane]

Seems like TPC/NHC also going with southern ASCAT low, which would be a position farther south than last best track position at 18Z and also less organized system than people thought earlier this evening with convection displaced farther to the north. Will be interesting to see morning vis.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

<snip Colin info>

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 24N41W TO
12N41W MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM
AROUND 0000 UTC INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1011 MB LOW CENTER ALONG THE AXIS AT
20N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE FROM THE ITCZ TO 27N
BETWEEN 35W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS N OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 40W-42W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS TO THE SW OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 42W-48W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.

<snip remainder of TWD>