ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[USTropics]

dry air + vorticity overlay

[Evil Jeremy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the TWO % drop to 80% or even 70% in an hour. 96L just doesn't look as good as it did earlier IMO. Before, it had one main center trying to form, but now it has about 2 or 3, which slows down the organization process.

[Brent]

Stays at 90

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[Brent]

Flareup near the center:



No best track update yet(Danielle and Frank already updated).

[ColinDelia]

Yesterday I studied a lot of systems in/near SAL and read a few papers on the effects of SAL on intensity. Cyclogenesis often happens with systems south of the SAL and there were many systems that held to 60 knots surrounded by SAL. Stronger systems had much more trouble when they moved into the SAL - though even with this there are exceptions. There were a handful that weakened to and held at 60 knots with SAL both west and east of the circulation (some weakened further than that). They had a tendency to rapidly intensify once they moved north or west of the SAL.

[ColinDelia]

very close to an upgrade IMO

[ColinDelia]

Be interesting to see what role the SAL plays. The system to the east is clearing out the dry air on that side.
I'll take the under on SHIPs though - which has a maximum of 11 knots of shear for the first 108 hours.

[KWT]

Probably will give the system quite a few issues I'd imagine in terms of expanding itself but who knows!

Either way the recurve idea is growing...again...

[ColinDelia]

Dry air wrapping around. Seems like just a LITTLE more dry air on south side than a few hours ago. Not sure how accurate that is and of course, a few hours is just a few hours. To watch!

[Evil Jeremy]

I still think the TWO % should be decreased. This system looks less healthy (IMO) than earlier. Also, the longer this goes without getting it's act together, the longer it should track west, right?

[GCANE]

I think this will be an interesting interaction to watch and goes along the ideas of the pouch paradigm.

MIMIC-TPW seems to indicate that dry-air has not entrained yet in the boundary layer.

WV seems to show intrusion is more in the mid-levels.

There is still a high rain rate cell firing.

So, will the pouch be protected from dry-air?

May go either way.

NRL has posted a TC Formation Alert.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lay04.html

[cycloneye]

100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON
THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR
100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE EAST OF SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
UNFAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aquawind]

LOL.. now that's a little ridiculous..just call it or keep it 90%..sheesh like they are splitting hairs at the NHC with a system so far out..

[Blown Away]

Don't know how significant it is but the system is now moving "westward" instead of "WNW".

[GCANE]

Nice outflow on the west and some overshooting tops north of the LLC.

[cycloneye]

LOL.. now that's a little ridiculous..just call it or keep it 90%..sheesh like they are splitting hairs at the NHC with a system so far out..

I may be wrong but I think is the first time in this 2010 season a system gets 100% in a TWO.

[wxman57]

LOL.. now that's a little ridiculous..just call it or keep it 90%..sheesh like they are splitting hairs at the NHC with a system so far out..

I may be wrong but I think is the first time in this 2010 season a system gets 100% in a TWO.

I believe I've seen them do that just prior to issuing the first advisory on a TD before, Luis. New model guidance will be out shortly, I'm confident it will carry the header Tropical Cyclone Seven vs. Invest 96L.

[KWT]

LOL.. now that's a little ridiculous..just call it or keep it 90%..sheesh like they are splitting hairs at the NHC with a system so far out..

I may be wrong but I think is the first time in this 2010 season a system gets 100% in a TWO.

Blas in the EPAC got 100% earlier this season...

Looks like a TD now, probably will steadily strengthen into a TS and I'd imagine given the distance between Danielle it'll have the time to become a hurricane as well..

Track looks pretty clear for now and that is it follows Danielle into the same weakness it goes...though like Danille Bermuda needs to just keep an eye on it...

[Thunder44]

LOL.. now that's a little ridiculous..just call it or keep it 90%..sheesh like they are splitting hairs at the NHC with a system so far out..

I may be wrong but I think is the first time in this 2010 season a system gets 100% in a TWO.

I believe I've seen them do that just prior to issuing the first advisory on a TD before, Luis. New model guidance will be out shortly, I'm confident it will carry the header Tropical Cyclone Seven vs. Invest 96L.

Yes, I think it was either with Alex or Bonnie. The center looks much better defined on the visible than yesterday. So I expect an upgrade by 11am too.

[cwachal]

Almost every system in the ATL has gone 100% before getting named I think Danielle is the only one that did not