ATL: EARL - Models

[Frank2]

The GFS continues to show lobes of the polar trough swinging through the NE US every 3 days or so - timing is critical:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[KWT]

Yeah indeed Frank...

I'm not totally convinced this one will miss the Islands by that much at all...

[cycloneye]

120 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like the 12z GFS has TD7 crossing 20N around 60W, further south and west than the current cone.

[Hurricaneman]

passes it right through the hebert box

[KWT]

Do we really have to guess what the 12z GFS is going to do given hurricane Danielle is now due north of the system by 120hrs and a weakness down to 30N as well...heading towards Bermuda...again...

[SFLcane]

Earl Recurves into the weakness 160+hrs on the 12z GFS. Bermuda might want to also keep a close eye on future earl as it seems this could pose a pretty substantial treat down the line.

Edit.. Wave behind earl looks to also recurve.

[Evil Jeremy]

Earl Recurves into the weakness 160+hrs on the 12z GFS. Bermuda might want to also keep a close eye on earl as it seems this could pose a pretty substantial treat down the line.

The 12z run is only up to hour 120...

[KWT]

Its out to over 168hrs on a website I've got, looks due south by 168hrs of Bermuda....heading NNW over Bermuda by 192hrs.

[SFLcane]

Earl Recurves into the weakness 160+hrs on the 12z GFS. Bermuda might want to also keep a close eye on earl as it seems this could pose a pretty substantial treat down the line.

The 12z run is only up to hour 120...

174hrs..

[cycloneye]

So the East Coast of U.S. will be safe from any system this season? But that is another topic that I have at Talking Tropics that I invite the peeps to visit.

[SFLcane]

CV fish train...

[HURAKAN]

So the East Coast of U.S. will be safe from any system this season. But that is another topic that I have at Talking Tropics.

Unless it forms in the WCAR or GOM if the current setup continues

[Riptide]

CV fish train...

[img]http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical192.gif

Notice that the high pressure over North America has been replaced by low pressure and that the high is farther east. It's to early to call this a recurve.

[Frank2]

The GFS is very dependable at higher latitudes so I'm sticking with the polar trough continuing to bump the subtropical high to the east, as it's been doing for a number of weeks...

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[SFLcane]

CV fish train...

[img]http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical192.gif

Notice that the high pressure over North America has been replaced by low pressure and that the high is farther east. It's to early to call this a recurve.

PLenty of trofiness over the atl at the moment...which is why i find it unlikely these waves will have a chance to make a run at the U.S.

[Vortex]

Sure looks like the islands and US will escape the wrath of the Cape Verde season as it appears now..The pattern at the 500mb level per 12Z GFS makes complete sense to me..

[Aric Dunn]

well if we take the GFS ... every system for the foreseeable future will go swimming

[hurricaneCW]

Actually Bermuda would be pelted by both Danielle and Earl in the latest run, not to mention Earl goes up to Atlantic Canada as a strong storm. So while the U.S. is safe, the storms would not technically be "fish" storms.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC: Follows Danielle.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation