ATL: KARL - Ex-Hurricane - Discussion

[KWT]

With these sorts of systems, esp when they do break away from the ITCZ, they tend to undergo several poof and blow-up stages before things become more stable, don't be surprised if it goes poof again later today and maybe even a couple of more times before it starts to develop.

Still think this one could cause real issues down the line.

The only thing I'm wary off is the fact that the GFS has dropped this system as it was the first model to clock onto Gaston not reforming...

[Gustywind]

[Nimbus]

Looks like its back to blob watching for a few hours, Maybe there will be a vorticity center to get excited about up around 14n with this mornings visibles. That would make the umm track and I use that term loosely NNW at about 330.

[abajan]

92L has hardly moved over the last 24 hours and of all of the weather stations in its vicinity, Barbados has been recording the lowest pressures on average:



The flood warning that was discontinued at 4.00 p.m. yesterday may well have to be re-implemented.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[perk]

With these sorts of systems, esp when they do break away from the ITCZ, they tend to undergo several poof and blow-up stages before things become more stable, don't be surprised if it goes poof again later today and maybe even a couple of more times before it starts to develop.

Still think this one could cause real issues down the line.

The only thing I'm wary off is the fact that the GFS has dropped this system as it was the first model to clock onto Gaston not reforming...

KWT 92L has plenty enough model support.

[Gustywind]

From Crown Weather http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=325

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Friday, September 10, 2010 620 am EDT/520 am CDT

Eastern Caribbean Disturbance (Invest 92-L):
I am also monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the far eastern Caribbean associated with an area of low pressure located very near the island of Tobago. Satellite imagery in the past couple of hours have indicated that banding features are starting to form with some curvature in the building convection. This is a clear sign to me that a surface circulation may be forming. With that said, developing systems like this tend to go through several cycles of building and dissipating convection and it would not at all surprise me to see this convection die off later today only to build again tomorrow morning.

Most of the model guidance develops this system down the road around Monday and Tuesday and holds off on significant intensification until it is west of Jamaica on Wednesday and Thursday. The exception to this is the GFS model which forecasts no development. This makes me want to be very conservative now in forecasting development as the GFS model was the first model to key in on Gaston not redeveloping.

As for the other model guidance, the European model forecasts significant intensification in the western Caribbean around the middle part of next week with a track over the Yucatan Peninsula next Friday before tracking across the Bay of Campeche next weekend and into northern Mexico next Monday (September 20th).

The Canadian model is much further north and forecasts little or no development in the eastern Caribbean and forecasts 92-L to track north-northwestward this weekend and starts to develop and intensify it early next week when it’s north of Puerto Rico. Eventually, the Canadian model forecasts this system to interact with Igor by the middle to later part of next week and 92-L is pushed west-southwest into the Bahamas early next weekend and into the Florida Straits in about 9 to 10 days from now. I am skeptical regarding this run of the Canadian model as it takes in account the idea that Igor makes it all the way to the US East Coast and also takes in account that this system tracks as far north as 27 North Latitude, which both at this point seems unlikely.

So, at this point, I am leaning strongly towards the idea of little or no development this weekend into Monday and Tuesday of next week while it is in the eastern and central Caribbean. I think this system may wait to develop and intensify until it is west of Jamaica, which is expected on Wednesday; so from Wednesday and beyond, I think development and intensification will become much more likely. With that said, all interests in the central and western Caribbean, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor this system.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued sometime on Saturday.

Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

Change of language from the 2 AM TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Vortex]

What a beautiful shot of a developing system....




http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[KWT]

KWT 92L has plenty enough model support.

For now but remember with Ex-Gaston the models all forecasted strong redevelopment, then the GFS went offboard and slowly but surely so did the other models...I'm just a bit wary of the same thing happening here, when the GFS jumps offboard with development at such short notice it usually isn't far from the truth...

Still it doesn't look too bad right now...

[Evil Jeremy]

Remains at 40%

Actually, it has increased from 30% from 2AM.

[KWT]

Yeah Vortex that is a good image, shows how convection has increased from a little while ago, expect it to probably weaken again in terms of convection soon as it pluses then wanes as most developing storms do.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 40%

Actually, it has increased from 30% from 2AM.

Yep,I was at bed at that time.

[jlauderdal]

Remains at 40%

Actually, it has increased from 30% from 2AM.

Yep,I was at bed at that time.

who has time to sleep with 71,000 posts...

[AtlanticWind]

10/1145 UTC 13.0N 60.4W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 92, 2010091012, , BEST, 0, 128N, 602W, 25, 1009, DB

[tolakram]

It will be interesting to see if the large complex of storms over SA (lower left) will again disrupt 92L when they fall apart later today.

[cycloneye]

Is crawling westnorthwest at 290 degrees.

LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 60.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

[Gustywind]

[USTropics]

Vorticity looking much better this morning: