ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Raininfyr]

Much quieter here this morning. I thought it would be buzzing! Anyhows, Alex is looking good this morning. Interesting to note how large it has grown. Don't think that the Yuc is going to tear it apart. Thanks for posting the topography! Much discussion about landfall now, but it is just a tad early to be calling it this far out. Anxious to hear what our resident mets have to say about it. Would love to see Alex fizzle and then no one would have to deal with the wind and the rain.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The storm is strengthening, but IS close to land. Shear-Little to none. SSTs-WARM
My forcast below.
0 Hours-TS-45MPH(11AM EDT update)
6 Hours-TS-55MPH
12 Hours-TS-60MPH,Landfall
(Landfall at yucatan-60MPH)
24 Hours-TS-40MPH,inland
48 Hours-TS-50MPH
72 Hours-TS-65MPH
96 Hours-TS-70MPH
120 Hours-1-80MPH

[cycloneye]

Cozumel web cam. What do I see in that shot,a cruise ship with a storm nearing?

http://www.cozumelinsider.com/WEBCAM

[TampaFl]

Here is a link to the Belize, Mx radar loop - Caution slow loading even with broadband! But once it loads it is a nice loop

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Radar%20Loop%20250km.htm

Robert

[cycloneye]

S2k members in Yucatan are posting observations in the Caribbean thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum.

[Countrygirl911]

hi do you know if they are going to do another recon today if so what time

[Hurricane Andrew]

hi do you know if they are going to do another recon today if so what time

Flight Teal70 10AM EDT takes off in 13 minutes.

[cycloneye]

hi do you know if they are going to do another recon today if so what time

They should takeoff in a few minutes from Biloxi base and arriving at the center of Alex around 1:30 PM EDT.Check the recon thread for the data as it comes in.

[gatorcane]

Much quieter here this morning. I thought it would be buzzing! Anyhows, Alex is looking good this morning. Interesting to note how large it has grown. Don't think that the Yuc is going to tear it apart. Thanks for posting the topography! Much discussion about landfall now, but it is just a tad early to be calling it this far out. Anxious to hear what our resident mets have to say about it. Would love to see Alex fizzle and then no one would have to deal with the wind and the rain.

Not surprising it is much quieter here. Since right now it looks like a Yucatan/Mexico threat and most of our posters are in the U.S, I think interest has gone down considerably. Now if the track was towards the northern GOM, it would be a much different activity level right now on this board.

Still, I hope those that have lost interest do take a look at just how massive this system is becoming and how it has a perfect upper anticyclone for good development today before making landfall in the Yucatan. Then there should be more development likely in the GOM with excellent upper-level conditions.

I just want to say that we should be so glad that it is not going to impact the oil-spill areas. That could have been quite disastrous even if Alex did not get past tropical storm status.

[jasons2k]

....It's also Saturday...

....looks like I did wake-up to Alex too.

[Gustywind]

[hurricaneCW]

I think its a great learning experience and I'm curious to see its future development. Plus the track is not set in stone yet and south Texas is still in its cross-hairs. Alex is just the beginning of a very long and active season to come.

[sphelps8681]

This is from Accuweather this am.

A window of movement ranging from Louisiana to Tamaulipas, Mexico exists for possible storm tracks next week, as the system is expected to emerge on the northwestern side of the Yucatan Peninsula later Sunday.

Waters are very warm in the western Caribbean and in much of the Gulf of Mexico. While the system will battle with the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend, strengthening prior to and after engaging the land mass is inevitable.

The system will pull a great deal of tropical moisture northward on its eastern side. As a result, regardless of the exact track, squalls and building seas are likely not only over the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico, but also over eastern areas.

While a track over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico would mean substantially less impact on the oil spill area, building seas and gusty thunderstorms from the tropical vale of moisture could cause some hazards and disruptions.

A track over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico would mean the roughest conditions, and prove to be the most disruptive over the oil spill area. A south to southeasterly flow on the eastern flank of such a storm track would drive the most oil toward the central Gulf Coast.

In either case, the earliest we would have landfall would be late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is some possibility of the system's forward speed slowing, which would keep nail biting going through next week.

[Raininfyr]

Much quieter here this morning. I thought it would be buzzing! Anyhows, Alex is looking good this morning. Interesting to note how large it has grown. Don't think that the Yuc is going to tear it apart. Thanks for posting the topography! Much discussion about landfall now, but it is just a tad early to be calling it this far out. Anxious to hear what our resident mets have to say about it. Would love to see Alex fizzle and then no one would have to deal with the wind and the rain.

Not surprising it is much quieter here. Since right now it looks like a Yucatan/Mexico threat and most of our posters are in the U.S, I think interest has gone down considerably. Now if the track was towards the northern GOM, it would be a much different activity level right now on this board.

Still, I hope those that have lost interest do take a look at just how massive this system is becoming and how it has a perfect upper anticyclone for good development today before making landfall in the Yucatan. Then there should be more development likely in the GOM with excellent upper-level conditions.

I just want to say that we should be so glad that it is not going to impact the oil-spill areas. That could have been quite disastrous even if Alex did not get past tropical storm status.

Hey Gator, well one can wish on a wishing star, but continued development of this system looks inevitable. And, I don't see anything pulling/allowing Alex northward anytime soon. Northern GOM'ers will considered themselves blessed if the bullet is dodged this go round. Timing is important, since they are just weeks away from the relief well. We need that time.

[vbhoutex]

I'm definitely not an amateur forecaster, but I don't see anything in the discussion here that rules out a possibility that Alex reforms in the BOC, strengthens, and then is a coasthugger along the Mexican and then Texas coast.

As a TS or minimal hurricane offshore, it shouldn't be that big of a deal if the forward motion is fast enough, although the landfall would be problematic.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is unlikely that Alex could become a coastal hugger. If you look at the map posted earlier the steering currents give a very good indication of the track he will take and it should be W to WNW with a possible small jog towards the NW near his second landfall. Even though that particular map does not show future patterns indications are that the high pressure ridge that is producing that pattern will continue and probably build further W which would help to steer Alex on a more W to WNW course.

[KatDaddy]

I will be watching TS Alex closing from Salt Lake City next week. I do have concern that Alex could move very slow or stall in the SW GOM for a day or two then move more N with a weaker ridge across the NW GOM. That would not bode well for TX. A large system over very warm water with slow movement could equal a major hurricane. Best case scenario would be Alex moving more WNW into MEX somewhere S of Tampico.

[tailgater]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Bet that would be a pretty wild ride in that little crow's nest on top this bouy.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of some of the better models (OK, the Canadian is in there, too), along with the OFCI (official interpreted) track from the NHC. GFDL continues to shift south and now takes the center into Brownsville. It should continue moving south today. Note that the only track NOT well inland in 5 days is NHC. They're WAY too slow with moving Alex on the last two days, just 1-2 kts forward speed. I have Alex inland about 120 miles south of Brownsville before noon Wednesday, about 96 hours from now. Oh, and I'm fairly confident it'll be a hurricane, possibly Cat 2. Just don't see the shear to hurt it in the Gulf. And with a good 48-60 hrs over water, it could become a somewhat larger than average hurricane. Just depends on how much it is disrupted over the Yucatan. Such a large circulation won't be disrupted as much, though.

[cycloneye]

57,also is flat land in Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

WxMan I agree with that forecast. I think it could be a CAT 2 in the GOM also, a hurricane seems a good possibility. Conditions are going to be ripe in the BOC once it emerges. Thanks for showing those models.