ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[mpic]

I hope that ridge holds...the local morning weather said that it would move north as Alex pushes north. Just a crap shoot at this point?

[Hurricane Andrew]

993 MB? Thatsd like 55-65MPH wind!

[HURAKAN]

Could somebody explain to me how to read the dropsonde observations?

000
UZNT13 KNHC 261606
XXAA 76164 99250 70877 08157 99013 29234 08017 00114 28228 08519
92803 22820 09523 85538 19033 11022 70190 11045 09019 50592 05757
09510 40763 14771 24509 88999 77999
31313 09608 81548
61616 AF302 0301AALEX OB 03
62626 SPL 2502N08770W 1558 MBL WND 08018 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10511
011344 WL150 08518 078 REL 2502N08766W 154801 SPG 2502N08770W 155
803 =
XXBB 76168 99250 70877 08157 00013 29234 11943 23810 22850 19033
33761 15658 44724 13058 55701 11043 66694 10857 77658 07657 88643
07063 99602 04458 11559 00040 22526 02960 33519 03556 44470 09333
55448 11558 66440 12168 77400 14771 88379 17768 99374 18361 11360
19563 22344 23165
21212 00013 08017 11965 08019 22925 09523 33875 10018 44850 11022
55648 09014 66609 12517 77581 10010 88515 09011 99457 14003 11362
25010 22344 23517
31313 09608 81548
61616 AF302 0301AALEX OB 03
62626 SPL 2502N08770W 1558 MBL WND 08018 AEV 20800 DLM WND 10511
011344 WL150 08518 078 REL 2502N08766W 154801 SPG 2502N08770W 155
803 =
;

I don't know the code of those data. Thank you very much.

Code: Select all

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Tropical Atlantic Reconnaissance Decoder

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 16:06Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number: 01
Storm Name: Alex (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 16Z on the 26th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 25.0N 87.7W (View map)
Location: 373 miles (601 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level    Geo. Height    Air Temp.    Dew Point    Wind Direction    Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg)    Sea Level (Surface)    29.2°C (84.6°F)    25.8°C (78.4°F)   80° (from the E)    17 knots (20 mph)
1000mb   114m (374 ft)   28.2°C (82.8°F)    25.4°C (77.7°F)   85° (from the E)    19 knots (22 mph)
925mb   803m (2,635 ft)   22.8°C (73.0°F)    20.8°C (69.4°F)   95° (from the E)    23 knots (26 mph)
850mb   1,538m (5,046 ft)   19.0°C (66.2°F)    15.7°C (60.3°F)   110° (from the ESE)    22 knots (25 mph)
700mb   3,190m (10,466 ft)   11.0°C (51.8°F)    6.5°C (43.7°F)   90° (from the E)    19 knots (22 mph)
500mb   5,920m (19,423 ft)   -5.7°C (21.7°F)    Approximately -13°C (9°F)   95° (from the E)    10 knots (12 mph)
400mb   7,630m (25,033 ft)   -14.7°C (5.5°F)    Approximately -36°C (-33°F)   245° (from the WSW)    9 knots (10 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 15:48Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 25.02N 87.7W
Splash Time: 15:58Z

Release Location: 25.02N 87.66W (View map)
Release Time: 15:48:01Z

Splash Location: 25.02N 87.7W (View map)
Splash Time: 15:58:03Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 18 knots (21 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 105° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 344mb to 1011mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 153 gpm - 3 gpm (502 geo. feet - 10 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 18 knots (21 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20800

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level    Air Temperature    Dew Point
1013mb (Surface)   29.2°C (84.6°F)    25.8°C (78.4°F)
943mb   23.8°C (74.8°F)    22.8°C (73.0°F)
850mb   19.0°C (66.2°F)    15.7°C (60.3°F)
761mb   15.6°C (60.1°F)    Approximately 8°C (46°F)
724mb   13.0°C (55.4°F)    Approximately 5°C (41°F)
701mb   11.0°C (51.8°F)    6.7°C (44.1°F)
694mb   10.8°C (51.4°F)    Approximately 4°C (39°F)
658mb   7.6°C (45.7°F)    Approximately 1°C (34°F)
643mb   7.0°C (44.6°F)    Approximately -6°C (21°F)
602mb   4.4°C (39.9°F)    Approximately -4°C (25°F)
559mb   0.0°C (32.0°F)    -4.0°C (24.8°F)
526mb   -2.9°C (26.8°F)    Approximately -13°C (9°F)
519mb   -3.5°C (25.7°F)    Approximately -10°C (14°F)
470mb   -9.3°C (15.3°F)    -12.6°C (9.3°F)
448mb   -11.5°C (11.3°F)    Approximately -20°C (-4°F)
440mb   -12.1°C (10.2°F)    Approximately -30°C (-22°F)
400mb   -14.7°C (5.5°F)    Approximately -36°C (-33°F)
379mb   -17.7°C (0.1°F)    Approximately -36°C (-33°F)
374mb   -18.3°C (-0.9°F)    Approximately -29°C (-20°F)
360mb   -19.5°C (-3.1°F)    Approximately -32°C (-26°F)
344mb   -23.1°C (-9.6°F)    Approximately -38°C (-36°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level    Wind Direction    Wind Speed
1013mb (Surface)   80° (from the E)    17 knots (20 mph)
965mb   80° (from the E)    19 knots (22 mph)
925mb   95° (from the E)    23 knots (26 mph)
875mb   100° (from the E)    18 knots (21 mph)
850mb   110° (from the ESE)    22 knots (25 mph)
648mb   90° (from the E)    14 knots (16 mph)
609mb   125° (from the SE)    17 knots (20 mph)
581mb   100° (from the E)    10 knots (12 mph)
515mb   90° (from the E)    11 knots (13 mph)
457mb   140° (from the SE)    3 knots (3 mph)
362mb   250° (from the WSW)    10 knots (12 mph)
344mb   235° (from the SW)    17 knots (20 mph)

---

Dropsonde Diagram:
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.


[HURAKAN]

993 MB? Thatsd like 55-65MPH wind!

It's an estimate

[Ntxwx]

To me, It looks like Belize City isn't going to get a direct hit. Areas south of there will be the most effected.

[Pedro Fernández]

Thank you very much, Hurakan I was just looking for the minimun sea level pressure measured by the dropsonde.

[HURAKAN]

24 hours ago:


Now:


Impressive change

[Ivanhater]

Wow, Alex looks great.

Usually in June if we have a storm it is usually sheared.

[johngaltfla]

Correct me if I'm wrong but long term tracks for a tropical storm crossing the Yucatan have a WIDE variance depending on the intensity if any when and where it reforms in the Gulf of Mexico. I do not think we will know where Alex is going until Monday with any certainty.

[johngaltfla]

Impressive change

Too impressive for me. I can not imagine what this storm would look like September or October and the intensity it could/would develop. This is shaping up to be a LONG season.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive storm

[wx247]

Impressive, indeed:



Looks like this is tracking south of the forecasted points, to my unprofessional eye.

As always, just my $.04 worth...

[Sanibel]

Getting it together fast. Becoming compact. Heading for Belize/Mexico border.


Storms that draw off the Pacific tend to be stronger storms. June should nudge that down slightly.

[Brent]

Those tops are amazing on IR and the structure is great.

[HURAKAN]

Claiming his territory

[MGC]

Good thing Alex will be ashore soon. Massive cyclone...hopefully it will fall apart over the Yucatan.....MGC

[KWT]

If it doesn't lift out soon its not going to get much real estate in the BoC...

The southward shift will likely continue given the fact it is still trending further south of the track...

In fact I'm starting to think the ECM of the other day might be clsoe to the mark ,certainly the HWRF has tracked southwards again..

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hmm...I think we might have a surprise in store from Alex.

He might EXPLODE n the gulf if he were to stall...

[tolakram]

Very quickly moving inland, in my opinion.

Speed this loop up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[Texas Snowman]

Its WAY to quite in here

Hehe, well I know why. Yesterday the track of the storm was pointing more towards Texas. Today, all the guidance is saying that it's going to be a Mexico due to the strong ridge building in to the north of the storm. That's exactly the reason it's quiet.

Chatter could pick up in here again. I agree with whoever said earlier that it would be Monday (after whatever is left of Alex emerges off the Yucatan) before we would know for certain where it is going.