ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[poof121]

Forgive my ignorance, but I am confused about the intensity forcasting of this storm. Are they still expecting it to make landfall as a weak system/tropical storm, or is there any possibilty that this coud become a hurricane?

No model I've seen indicates it becoming a hurricane, but intensity forecasts are no where near as accurate as position forecasts. So, yes, I'd say there is a possibility of a hurricane.

Mod question: Do I need the disclaimer on these types of posts?

[Javlin]

The clouds are saying NW for the time being in the WV image.The ULL besides the shear it is imparting I believe is also changing the direction and as has been noted models do not deal with ULL well.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[ROCK]

ridge building in so if its going to make a run NW its running out of time....WV shows this fairly evident....once it does build in an increase in forward speed and the TUTT feature will keep it in check... I do think a sw jog is coming though....

[SFLcane]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

How big of an effect will this have on future track?

well essentially the forecast reasoning is the same .. just take the track exactly the way it is and shift it north..

Aric can you create a map showing were you think the latest center might be? appreciate it

[redfish1]

ridge building in so if its going to make a run NW its running out of time....WV shows this fairly evident....once it does build in an increase in forward speed and the TUTT feature will keep it in check... I do think a sw jog is coming though....

thank you

[Ivanhater]

A little tid bit from JB for you South Florida folks

THURSDAY:
LOOK AT THIS FROM KEY WEST:

...WINDS AND SEAS... AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET FRIDAY MORNING MAY BUILD TO 10 TO 16 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

Now, there is little weather with and south of the center of this. The center is likely to go north of them. It's like what we saw with warnings on the Mexican coast with Alex and TD 2.

I expect wind gusts from Miami to Ft. Pierce to average over 35 knots but I would be surprised if I see one over 20 knots at eyw, when the storm is within 100 miles of them.

Ciao for now.

[ROCK]

You won't see any SW motion. The ridge looks to be oriented SE to NW..not straight west to east.

Ivan, look at the WV for central US....here....ridge already starting to flatten out the NE rain shield as it builds in around the TUTT..as soon as the TUTT feature moves off some.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/ceus/flash-wv.html

[StormTracker]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

How big of an effect will this have on future track?

well essentially the forecast reasoning is the same .. just take the track exactly the way it is and shift it north..

Thank you Aric! That's what I've been talkin' about for the 2 pages of this thread!

[Air Force Met]

You won't see any SW motion. The ridge looks to be oriented SE to NW..not straight west to east.

Not the ridge I analyzed...although I do doubt any SW motion...I could certianly see a WSW motion at some point.

[Aric Dunn]

latest recon pass.. the center still moving/migrating/reforming essentially north...

[Ivanhater]

Lol Rock..I win either way

Ahh good stuff AF, I would think a stronger storm, a hurricane, would feel that ridge stronger and possibly move SW, but not a tropical storm. I could be wrong though

I believe the ridge is supposed to relax though by day 3?

[tailgater]

This is about where I think it is

That was at about first light.
Now

[southerngale]

Forgive my ignorance, but I am confused about the intensity forcasting of this storm. Are they still expecting it to make landfall as a weak system/tropical storm, or is there any possibilty that this coud become a hurricane?

No model I've seen indicates it becoming a hurricane, but intensity forecasts are no where near as accurate as position forecasts. So, yes, I'd say there is a possibility of a hurricane.

Mod question: Do I need the disclaimer on these types of posts?

No, not for general comments. You need it for forecasts.

[Aric Dunn]

Shear down to near nothing in the upper levels.. and in down under 10kts in the mid levels .. well besides a little stable air ingested atm there is not much inhibitors now at least according what i have seen...

mid level


upper levels

[Ivanhater]

BTW, no model even goes due west, they go wnw which leads me to believe the ridge is nor oriented straight west, but I defer to AF

[redfish1]

i still think it is going to shoot through the strait

[Frank2]

Vortex message shows what it appeared to be on the VIS when the first advisory was issued - a modest TD...

[MGC]

Well, let me say that I didn't expect a center to close off this far east....anyway, looking at the visable loop....looks to me like the system is a bit north of where it was earlier. Upper keys to extreme south Florida south of Miami looks like a good landfall point as a weak TS. Thinking mouth of Miss River west to Galvenston is at greatest risk.......MGC

[Tireman4]

I trust AFM and Wxman57. Thank you and good night. LOL

[lester]

Vortex message shows what it appeared to be on the VIS when the first advisory was issued - a modest TD...

They haven't been over the NE quad yet -- where the strongest winds usually are..