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redfish1 wrote:i still think it is going to shoot through the strait
Ivanhater wrote:BTW, no model even goes due west, they go wnw which leads me to believe the ridge is nor oriented straight west, but I defer to AF
Just off a quick glance, GFS, NAM, Euro, and RUC all have the ridge oriented similarly to AFM's analysis. It's over the weekend that the models have the ridge axis rotate to the way you described.Ivanhater wrote:BTW, no model even goes due west, they go wnw which leads me to believe the ridge is nor oriented straight west, but I defer to AF
They haven't been over the NE quad yet -- where the strongest winds usually are..
eastcoastFL wrote:Well I am in Boca right now and the wind is starting to pick up. Not sure if its from the ridge or from the approaching storm. Any suggestions?
Air Force Met wrote:Ivanhater wrote:BTW, no model even goes due west, they go wnw which leads me to believe the ridge is nor oriented straight west, but I defer to AF
No model took Katrina WSW either...but...
Frankly....a lot will depend on what the ULL does. If it continues to impart southerly winds over the system...that will encourage the center to move more WNW. If it shifts to a more ESE shear...then look for it to move more westerly.
AdamFirst wrote:eastcoastFL wrote:Well I am in Boca right now and the wind is starting to pick up. Not sure if its from the ridge or from the approaching storm. Any suggestions?
It's likely still from the ridge. Though honestly I couldn't tell the difference
redfish1 wrote:i still think it is going to shoot through the strait
eastcoastFL wrote:weather channel must be really bored sending him down here for a friggin TD...
eastcoastFL wrote:weather channel must be really bored sending him down here for a friggin TD...
Air Force Met wrote:Ivanhater wrote:BTW, no model even goes due west, they go wnw which leads me to believe the ridge is nor oriented straight west, but I defer to AF
No model took Katrina WSW either...but...
Frankly....a lot will depend on what the ULL does. If it continues to impart southerly winds over the system...that will encourage the center to move more WNW. If it shifts to a more ESE shear...then look for it to move more westerly.
FRI...TD 3 FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS/SOUTHERN
TIP OF FLORIDA...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...MAKING IT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY LATE IN THE DAY. MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA PROVIDING LIKELY POPS (60%)
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KXMR-KMCO AND SCATTERED POPS (40%-50%)
NORTHWARD. GUSTY WINDS IN RAIN SQUALLS (30-40 MPH) AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND ADDED INTO THE GRIDS/ZONES FOR
THIS DAY. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1-3" OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO. LOCAL AMOUNTS
UP TO 4" FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY ARE POSSIBLE.
DO NOT ANTICIPATE A FLOOD WATCH AS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
BEEN FAIRLY DRY THIS SUMMER AND MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WHERE RAIN BECOMES MORE
PERSISTENT...THERE MAY BE SOME TEMPORARY NUISANCE PONDING. AT THE
MOMENT A VERY LOW END THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO EXISTS MAINLY
FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT
(EAST/EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15-20 MPH) DURING THE DAY. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE WITH
ANY MORNING BREAKS OF SUN OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE
MORNING GIVING WAY TO MORE CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
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