ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - DISCUSSION

[Brent]

If it had a few more hours, it'd be a hurricane IMO. Very impressive. If this storm comes out in any kind of good shape into the Gulf lookout.

Never underestimate the Western Caribbean. I can't even name all the storms that have bombed there through the years.

[HurricaneStriker]

Bursting over the center

Certainly quite amazing how Alex is trying to intensify ASAP before landfall.

[Air Force Met]

Some impressive bombing going on right now with Alex. According to radar, Alex has made a LANDFALL!!!

According to RECON, not, it hasn't.

Actually..."technically" it has. It depends in the definition you use. The official definition used by the Gov't for FEMA purposes is landfall occurs when the 34 kt winds cross the coast. Another definition would be when the clear area within the circulation center crosses the coast (which is the most common definition and the one HurricaneStriker is using). The last definition, the one you are using, is the center of the storm. Usually...technical landfall occurs before the "center"...where the vortex is or where the coordinates are...crosses the coast.

If one uses the FEMA/DHS/NOAA definition...technical landfall may occur a long time before (depending on size of storm) the center of the storm gets there.

[clfenwi]

A bit of climo... June-August TD/TS within 100 nm of the most recon fix:



Best match of modern era storms may be Diana of 1990... there are a couple of unnamed tropical storms that fit as well.



Diana's peak was 85 knots/980 millibars.

[Ivanhater]

boc should continue intensification

btw go USA. tied with Ghana

[KWT]

Diana isn't a bad match at all, another decent one might end up being the June 1922 TS1.

Still nice strengthening has occured over the last few hours, system appears to have at the very least wobbled a little more to the NW beterrn the vortex messages though it maybe just the case that vortex got a better center hit this time.

[KWT]

Very good image Hurakan by the way, the convective blow up is right over the center, if it is bursting onto landfall that usually bodes well for the system to keep some strength...

Also nice banding there on the southern convection.

[HurricaneStriker]

Seems icky on Ambergris Caye (Island) in Belize.

[Macrocane]

Alex has been pulling moisture from the Pacifics since last night and it is producing moderate to heavy rains in EL Salvador. This is the rainfall registered between 7:00 am yesterday and 7:00 am today in El Salvador, the highest amount was 117 mm/4.61 inches:



The IR image at 19:15 UTC:

[KWT]

Very interesting webcam!

Whats going to be interesting is how much latitude Alex can gain as it strengthens before landfall, it really is the case of every minute of latitude it gains the more time it will have to strengthen.

If it can get out far enough north, I certainly wouldn't rule out a hurricane with this, you can see hoe favourable conditions aloft have become recently.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, step out to take care of some yard chores today and come back inside to see Alex has tried a fast run up to a hurricane before landfall!

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

One other question--As large as this storm is, is it big enough that either the west or east coast of So Fla might get some rain or wind from it (depending, of course, on its direction)?

Sunny,

It already has. If you happen to be in sofla, you'll notice that 2 days ago the air was tolerable. Now its like walking through butter or cotton candy. The wave brought a TON of tropical moisture up to us. If you watch the soundings you could easily see it in the uppers.

[KWT]

Wow, step out to take care of some yard chores today and come back inside to see Alex has tried a fast run up to a hurricane before landfall!

It seems to happen alot when systems are heading towards landfall I've noticed in places like this, always seems to be the same "what if it had another how many hours over water" to me!

No doubt its looking impressive and as I said a bursting system suggests it will do ok overland at least to a certain degree.

[HURAKAN]

RECON returning to base. Likely the last RECON until it gets back to water tomorrow or so.

[HurricaneStriker]

An impressive 'rainbow' pic of Alex, approaching Belize.

[HURAKAN]

Alex the Great

[jinftl]

What an impressive symmetry and size to this system....pulling in moisture from the pacific as well....very impressive looking tropical storm...esp given it is June!

[HurricaneStriker]

Wow! I never realized how big Alex is compared to the west of the Caribbean and the GOM. I would say about 40% of the 'storm matter' comes from the Pacific.

[KWT]

Its going to have to gain more latitude if its even going to get into the south BoC from the looks of things, worth noting though the center is right on the northern extreme of that deepest convection.

[jinftl]

If my uneducated brain had to guess what the intensity of the storm was based on that satellite image....i would think we were talking a well-developed hurricane. Amazing how little shear on a large-diameter system photographs so well!!!

:uarrow: Wow! I never realized how big Alex is compared to the west of the Caribbean and the GOM. I would say about 40% of the 'storm matter' comes from the Pacific.