ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Stormcenter]

I believe you are correct.

BTW, no model even goes due west, they go wnw which leads me to believe the ridge is nor oriented straight west, but I defer to AF

No model took Katrina WSW either...but...

Frankly....a lot will depend on what the ULL does. If it continues to impart southerly winds over the system...that will encourage the center to move more WNW. If it shifts to a more ESE shear...then look for it to move more westerly.

That is not entirely accurate. Right before Katrina made landfall in South Florida, the GFDL was for quite a while the only model showing a WSW motion. The others eventually picked up on it but for sure the GFDL picked up on it first.

[JTE50]

jim on his way to south florida for this storm

probably wait till it gets in the Gulf.

[Aric Dunn]

30 frame WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

ULL continues to race SW while TD3 remains almost stationary or relocates N/NW. Either way, the distance between TD3 and the ULL is increasing. Also note the moisture now being pulled from the SE of TD3 rather than the drier air from the SW.

the more intriguing thing is the large amount of convection the NW that is developing.. it say too things first that the environment out ahead of it is improving and to the center will likely be pulled farther north closer to the more convective mass.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

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TD3 appears to be slowly strengthening based on infrared...I do think south florida
will experience a solid area of heavy rain and gusty winds of 30-40 mph gusts to 50+ in heavier
storms...while rainbands and squalls will spread northward and affect central Florida with 20-25 mph winds,
gusts to 30+ in those squalls...of course with the day time heating any of those storms
may grow stronger and produce higher gusts similar to what is seen during a typical thunderstorm
in the summer except the winds will be gustier and more prolonged due to the tropical nature of this
system.

After that it goes into the GOM and I think there will be slow strengthening over the GOM...shear
appears to be lifting out and it may make a run for close to hurricane strength in the GOM...of
course if shear completely diminishes then it could be a lot stronger.


As for track based on model trends and a strong ridge visible on any loop...a west gulf impact
(after passing FL) is most
likely (LA/TX or even further west).

[Ikester]

30 frame WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

ULL continues to race SW while TD3 remains almost stationary or relocates N/NW. Either way, the distance between TD3 and the ULL is increasing. Also note the moisture now being pulled from the SE of TD3 rather than the drier air from the SW.

the more intriguing thing is the large amount of convection the NW that is developing.. it say too things first that the environment out ahead of it is improving and to the center will likely be pulled farther north closer to the more convective mass.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Probably, but either way, for those that are looking for a shift east in the models, I don't think that is likely as the ridge is forecast to build west as indicated here by the 594 mb heights on the gfs...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

[SFLcane]

30 frame WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

ULL continues to race SW while TD3 remains almost stationary or relocates N/NW. Either way, the distance between TD3 and the ULL is increasing. Also note the moisture now being pulled from the SE of TD3 rather than the drier air from the SW.

the more intriguing thing is the large amount of convection the NW that is developing.. it say too things first that the environment out ahead of it is improving and to the center will likely be pulled farther north closer to the more convective mass.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Aric last recon fix is just around the 2pm position? Also not very impressive winds found by recon.

[RachelAnna]

I was only paying attention to 97L in the beginning out of pure interest in the tropics. Now starting to look as though this may come to my area as a TS. How long until you think we have a better idea of landfall? Tomorrow?

[Frank2]

Probably, but either way, for those that are looking for a shift east in the models, I don't think that is likely as the ridge is forecast to build west.

I agree with that, and if the LLC is outrunning the convection due to it's rapid west movement (and it is moving west pretty rapidly), that doesn't favor immediate intensification...

[eastcoastFL]

When should we start to see some rain and wind here in s. florida?

[Aric Dunn]

30 frame WV Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

ULL continues to race SW while TD3 remains almost stationary or relocates N/NW. Either way, the distance between TD3 and the ULL is increasing. Also note the moisture now being pulled from the SE of TD3 rather than the drier air from the SW.

the more intriguing thing is the large amount of convection the NW that is developing.. it say too things first that the environment out ahead of it is improving and to the center will likely be pulled farther north closer to the more convective mass.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

Probably, but either way, for those that are looking for a shift east in the models, I don't think that is likely as the ridge is forecast to build west.

im not worried about that latter half of the forecast since its highly dependent of variables that computer models suck at.. the models will shift north in the short term,,

[tolakram]

I have to disagree with the west or south west motion.

[Aric Dunn]

When should we start to see some rain and wind here in s. florida?

in a few hours .. its just off the coast

[AdamFirst]

When should we start to see some rain and wind here in s. florida?

Several hours...later tonight. Especially since there's a ton of convection building ahead of it.

[Steve]

When should we start to see some rain and wind here in s. florida?

Check your local forecast over at NOAA/National Weather Service. They should have all the information you need.

[x-y-no]

When should we start to see some rain and wind here in s. florida?

Early tomorrow morning, probably.

[Aric Dunn]

I have to disagree with the west or south west motion.

well at least for the last couple hours it has been migrating north ... and still seems to be doing that..

[StormClouds63]

weather channel must be really bored sending him down here for a friggin TD...

I guess they ran out of movies to show. Well, it will certainly be an interesting weekend that is for sure.

I'm sure she's a nice person, but Vivian Brown doing the Tropical Update is painful ... I'd rather the movie.

[Ikester]

I have to disagree with the west or south west motion.

This is the best I've seen it look I think...nice banding features setting up. Dry air being entrained on the south side, but that's not uncommon on a newly formed system...

[Ivanhater]

I will say in the short term a lot of the western models had it going over Cuba or even south. Still moving NW at the moment.

[hiflyer]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

Little squall line coming to sofla per radar