ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Countrygirl911]

hi eveyone well the weather man here just stated something about a TD in the gulf so are they going to rename it to TD soon

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

Our local weather just said it is back off shore and has the chance to become a TD or maybe a TS, we will just have to wait and see. He said the models take it west and into central La. Southeast Texas will probably see rain Wed and Thurs from it according to our local weather man.

[ROCK]

hi eveyone well the weather man here just stated something about a TD in the gulf so are they going to rename it to TD soon

we here will probably know it before he does.....

[Ivanhater]

[ROCK]

nice looking blob....bet we see a different look come tomorrow though...

[Florida1118]

Remains at 50%.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...JUST
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH TUESDAY.

[JonathanBelles]

hmmm. On the GTWO and on the floaters we see a large area of black on the Eastern US. It was there last night as well, and at the time I though it was an error or blip, but it is back now. What is the cause of that?

[brunota2003]

Weren't the sat eclipses supposed to start on the 15th?

[Aric Dunn]

Pressures are starting to fall now ( about 1 MB in the last hour) and convection is becoming better organized. aprox center of developing LLC is 29.3N 86.2W.. accept a system nearing TD status but 11am ... if all goes well ...

[brunota2003]

Check out this buoy, winds switched from WNW to S and pressures dropped (as a side note, the air temp dropped to 80.1 at 11:50 pm CDT, and are currently 82.6 at 1:50 am CDT). The pressure started dropping at the same time the 80.1 was reached, and the temps started rising while the pressure dropped.

EDIT: Oops! You can tell it is 3:15 in the morning for me (EDT)...forgot to add the link!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

[Frank P]

I certainly see rotation south of PC right now, center of rotation definitely well off the coast... not sure at what levels but the spin is evident.. Biloxi got deluged with a wonderful afternoon shower late Sunday afternoon... the most weather we've seen from TD5 or its remnants...

[KWT]

Yeah this one will probably redevelop now though they probably will leave it till recon goes in there to see exactly what is going on

[wxman57]

Note that the Euro shifted well east to SE Louisiana, north of the mouth of the Mississippi. It's now in line with all the other models.

[cyclogenesis]

August 16, 2010
this Monday morning
537 AM CDT


Hey Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW Monday morning, August 16, weather writing about the depression remnants & Southeast Louisiana weather on to my website listed below:


http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[ColinDelia]

http://cvamagic.tripod.com/

Detailed, informative read.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, looks like shear might be a problem here!!!

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Looks to be well offshore now.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, that was a good read and I agree on the shear, looks like a problem.

[Stormcenter]

Good read from the NWS out of New Orleans.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SUSTAINED WINDS APPEARED TO BE AVERAGING AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OBSERVED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION ON
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN VERY DISORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...BUT
APPEARED TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

A BROAD CYCLONE EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 500
MB...THEN THERE IS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF NORTHEAST SHEAR IN THE
UPPER LEVELS AROUND 300-200 MB. LOOKING AT SATELLITE...ESPECIALLY
WATER VAPOR LOOPS...ALL THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM THE BAJA
MEXICO AREA TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ARE MOVING WEST IN THE WEAK
TROPICAL EASTERLIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THE EAST TO WEST STEERING CURRENTS DESCRIBED IN THE SYNOPSIS
SECTION ARE LIKELY TO NUDGE THE SURFACE LOW WEST FROM SOUTH OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LARGER SCALE...CONVENTIONAL
MODELS ALONG WITH AND TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND FIT THE OVERALL PATTERN VERY WELL. OF
COURSE...THE BIGGER PROBLEM AS ALWAYS IS INTENSITY...AND THIS HAS
BEEN A PROBLEM ALL YEAR WITH WEAKER TROPICAL LOWS AND DEPRESSIONS.
THE RUC MODEL APPEARS TO HANDLE THE 250 MB WIND FIELD BETTER
ACROSS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING...SHOWING
VALUES CLOSER TO REALITY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS VERSUS THE NAM AND GFS
WHICH ONLY SHOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS. EVENTUALLY...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL COME UNDER LESS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST.

GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR PRESENTATION...I AM NOT
EXPECTING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT THAT COULD HAPPEN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
DEEPER...MORE SUSTAINED AND CONCENTRATED CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR
THE LOW CENTER.

REGARDLESS OF THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SCENARIO REMAINS THE
SAME WITH REGARDS TO THE MAJOR THREAT WHICH WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST. NOTE...IF THIS LOW TAKES ON MORE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND MOVES A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...THESE
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED BY SEVERAL
INCHES.

[ColinDelia]

Not much in the way of divergence aloft currently.