ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[Frank P]

I have to disagree with the west or south west motion.

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/8384/ztemp.gif

well at least for the last couple hours it has been migrating north ... and still seems to be doing that..

Loop that Frank2 posted looked WNW to me.. nothing west or south of west indicated from that loop... my untrained opinion..

*Edited by Ivanhater to remove image tags

[antonlsu]

She looks like she is getting her act together, you can see her swirling and trying to compact. This could get interesting

[Stormcenter]

IMO our friend Mr. Shear will have a major say so on how strong TD3 becomes.
It still has a long way to go.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD3 appears to be slowly strengthening based on infrared...I do think south florida
will experience a solid area of heavy rain and gusty winds of 30-40 mph gusts to 50+ in heavier
storms...while rainbands and squalls will spread northward and affect central Florida with 20-25 mph winds,
gusts to 30+ in those squalls...of course with the day time heating any of those storms
may grow stronger and produce higher gusts similar to what is seen during a typical thunderstorm
in the summer except the winds will be gustier and more prolonged due to the tropical nature of this
system.

After that it goes into the GOM and I think there will be slow strengthening over the GOM...shear
appears to be lifting out and it may make a run for close to hurricane strength in the GOM...of
course if shear completely diminishes then it could be a lot stronger.

[Blown Away]

One things for sure - it's moving pretty fast:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

some thought it to be moving NW but it appears to be moving W and perhaps a few degrees south of that...

Frank

I don't see any southerly component, I still see NW to NNW.

[eastcoastFL]

When should we start to see some rain and wind here in s. florida?

Check your local forecast over at NOAA/National Weather Service. They should have all the information you need.

They always say the same crap. Your better off just waiting to see what happens. Its all could be 1-12 inches of rain and wind could be 10-600mph. id rather stick my finger in the air .

[Ivanhater]

Update from JB

THURSDAY 1 P.M.

I DON'T AGREE WITH TPC.

That is an almost impossible track to maintain this. The path south of Florida bucks right into the shear for one, and for two it is well south of where this is now. This should be named Bonnie, because it has had tropical storm conditions for 2 days northeast of it and has a closed rotary circulation. But there should be little weather in the keys out of this, as the center passes near Miami and the worst weather will be Miami to Ft. Pierce.

And I don't think it will be stronger in the Gulf windwise than it is in Florida. The fact it is forming on the north side of the ellipse of low pressure that is moving across. The center will weaken over land, and the southern end of it may then be what you can track through the gulf as the lowest pressure.

Keep in mind, the farther north path is a better one for intensification (or put it this way, organization), but I expect TPC to have to adjust the track north to my way of thinking. That path won't work as you wont get it to go there and keep in together given the parameters involved.

[Florida1118]

When should we start to see some rain and wind here in s. florida?

Check your local forecast over at NOAA/National Weather Service. They should have all the information you need.

They always say the same crap. Your better off just waiting to see what happens. Its all could be 1-12 inches of rain and wind could be 10-600mph. id rather stick my finger in the air .

Do you think you can forcast better? Anyway, Bonnie's a comin! its been a long wait, but we have her! Does anyone believe the track will be shifting north?

[eastcoastFL]

my local forecast:

Hazardous weather condition(s):


Tropical Storm Wind Watch
Flood Watch
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hydrologic Outlook


Late Afternoon: A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 91. Breezy, with a east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: A slight chance of showers before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 81. Breezy, with a east wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday: Periods of rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. High near 88. Heat index values as high as 100. Windy, with a east wind between 22 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[ravyrn]

Is it really necessary to have 3 or 4 quotes of the same loop within 15 posts?

[poof121]

Okay, ULL seems to have shifted directions again...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Actually, looks like it might be opening up into a trough...

[eastcoastFL]

They always say the same crap. Your better off just waiting to see what happens. Its all could be 1-12 inches of rain and wind could be 10-600mph. id rather stick my finger in the air .[/quote]
Do you think you can forcast better? Anyway, Bonnie's a comin! its been a long wait, but we have her! Does anyone believe the track will be shifting north?[/quote]


I honestly do believe i could. lol

[rockyman]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I've been doing "risk maps" on this system for a couple of days. Now that the system has been upgraded and a center has been fixed, I thought I'd post my first ever track map. I see the system moving a little more north in the short term, then running into the ridge and turning back more westerly, then rounding the ridge and turning back more northwesterly as it approaches the coastline. Unfortunately, I think this system will pass very close to the Deepwater Horizon spill.

[lebron23]

rockyman, i think your eroding the ridge too quickly, but your opinion is appreciated

[Ivanhater]

It has been said over and over, remove the image tags if you are going to quote a post with an image.

[dizzyfish]

A little off topic but has anyone noticed that the map at the top of the page says invest 97L AND TD three?

[Ikester]

I'm glad I don't pay for JB's services. On a side note, this is why nobody should focus on a particular cone or a particular model. Follow Ike as it was forecast to hit everywhere from the east coast of Florida to Brownsville.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[rockyman]

5:00 PM EDT Thu Jul 22
Location: 22.7°N 75.4°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb

[NWFWatcher]

Looks to me as if it is going northwest. It appears to be north of where they have the points on it. Am I the only one seeing this.

[Air Force Met]

BTW, no model even goes due west, they go wnw which leads me to believe the ridge is nor oriented straight west, but I defer to AF

No model took Katrina WSW either...but...

Frankly....a lot will depend on what the ULL does. If it continues to impart southerly winds over the system...that will encourage the center to move more WNW. If it shifts to a more ESE shear...then look for it to move more westerly.

That is not entirely accurate. Right before Katrina made landfall in South Florida, the GFDL was for quite a while the only model showing a WSW motion. The others eventually picked up on it but for sure the GFDL picked up on it first.

True...but that was just a short term motion. It did not have it moving WSW into the Gulf to near 84W...south of 25N. And once it was in the Gulf it kept trying to move it WNW and into the panhandle of Fl.

Only the BAMD showed that kind of motion...

[Weatherfreak000]

I love that Ne motion/reforming of the center.. I dont think its done yet..

Yeah Aric, it's probably not done relocating for now. These newly formed system are a headache for the NHC.

The first track they put out for systems like this tends to be dead wrong for the most part. Alex was a big example. Odds of a EGOM landfall now are going up and WGOM is going down.