ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION CLAUDETTE (04L)

[Frank P]

Interesting to see this develop right under your nose... nice radar presentation for an invest...

[Nederlander]

which way is it moving?

Looks NW or NNW

[CrazyC83]

Almost looks like TD4 to me...

[hurricanefloyd5]

recon going to make a plan to fly out inside 91L??????

[Aric Dunn]

The middle radar(ramidis) Tolkram looks like were I think the center is tring to form at 26N and 83.5W tuuf to tell though just looks more wrapping there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir4.html

its taking place in this general area..

[tolakram]

Floater is t3. If your like me and can't stand the java loops they also offer flash, though no page links to it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/

All the flash loops are named flash-?????.html

Floaters for the other storms are

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/

[KWT]

Classic El Nino type development to be fair, could well be TD4 sooner then we all thought if obs can close off a surface low, given its location.

[Emmett_Brown]

Great Scott!!

[Aric Dunn]

Classic El Nino type development to be fair, could well be TD4 sooner then we all thought if obs can close off a surface low, given its location.

right with that amount of convection rotating its only a matter of time...
especially if it keep increasing and expanding..

[ronjon]

I presume we have to wait till midnight for the first model runs?

[LSU2001]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

Tampa radar loop sure looks as if this thing is trying to wrap up a bit.
Tim

[CrazyC83]

Wow, we have gone from just waiting for anything to suddenly bombarbed...Ana, Bill and now maybe Claudette?

[KWT]

The thing is with such high SST's I'd think IF something does get going RI has to be a real fear, something like Humberto.

Will be interesting to see what direction the models are taking it.

[clfenwi]

Pretty picture plot

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 160102 

CHGHUR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0102 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009 

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912009) 20090816 0000 UTC 

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        090816  0000   090816  1200   090817  0000   090817  1200 

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    25.9N  83.1W   27.2N  85.4W   28.4N  87.2W   29.4N  89.1W 
BAMD    25.9N  83.1W   27.1N  85.1W   28.1N  87.0W   29.0N  88.9W 
BAMM    25.9N  83.1W   27.1N  85.1W   28.1N  87.0W   29.0N  88.8W 
LBAR    25.9N  83.1W   27.3N  85.2W   29.0N  87.3W   30.7N  89.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          40KTS 
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          40KTS 

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        090818  0000   090819  0000   090820  0000   090821  0000 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    30.3N  90.7W   31.9N  93.6W   34.5N  95.6W   37.9N  85.6W 
BAMD    30.0N  90.7W   32.3N  93.4W   36.6N  91.0W   41.9N  72.1W 
BAMM    29.9N  90.6W   31.6N  93.5W   34.5N  94.9W   39.2N  80.9W 
LBAR    32.8N  90.0W   36.4N  87.4W   38.1N  78.1W   34.1N  75.3W 
SHIP        49KTS          63KTS          70KTS          76KTS 
DSHP        34KTS          28KTS          27KTS          28KTS 

          ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  25.9N LONCUR =  83.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  14KT 
LATM12 =  24.2N LONM12 =  80.2W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 =  13KT 
LATM24 =  23.5N LONM24 =  78.0W 
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT 
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M 
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

$$ 

NNNN 

[AdvAutoBob]

I THOUGHT that rain outside was tropical in nature! Last couple of hours here in N Ft Myers, it's looked suspiciously like rain bands, along with the fast moving clouds associated with them.

This, coupled with Ana and Bill... time to review storm preps (I know, i know... should have done it before June)


And a warm welcome back to my fellow S2K'ers!

[Aric Dunn]

The thing is with such high SST's I'd think IF something does get going RI has to be a real fear, something like Humberto.

Will be interesting to see what direction the models are taking it.

I posted this in the other thread...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/wrf/cz.html

[CrazyC83]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 160102 

CHGHUR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0102 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009 

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912009) 20090816 0000 UTC 

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        090816  0000   090816  1200   090817  0000   090817  1200 

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    25.9N  83.1W   27.2N  85.4W   28.4N  87.2W   29.4N  89.1W 
BAMD    25.9N  83.1W   27.1N  85.1W   28.1N  87.0W   29.0N  88.9W 
BAMM    25.9N  83.1W   27.1N  85.1W   28.1N  87.0W   29.0N  88.8W 
LBAR    25.9N  83.1W   27.3N  85.2W   29.0N  87.3W   30.7N  89.0W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          40KTS 
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          35KTS          40KTS 

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        090818  0000   090819  0000   090820  0000   090821  0000 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 
BAMS    30.3N  90.7W   31.9N  93.6W   34.5N  95.6W   37.9N  85.6W 
BAMD    30.0N  90.7W   32.3N  93.4W   36.6N  91.0W   41.9N  72.1W 
BAMM    29.9N  90.6W   31.6N  93.5W   34.5N  94.9W   39.2N  80.9W 
LBAR    32.8N  90.0W   36.4N  87.4W   38.1N  78.1W   34.1N  75.3W 
SHIP        49KTS          63KTS          70KTS          76KTS 
DSHP        34KTS          28KTS          27KTS          28KTS 

          ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  25.9N LONCUR =  83.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =  14KT 
LATM12 =  24.2N LONM12 =  80.2W DIRM12 = 295DEG SPDM12 =  13KT 
LATM24 =  23.5N LONM24 =  78.0W 
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   25KT 
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M 
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM 

$$ 

NNNN 

Hmmmmm...SHIPS brings it up to 76 kt, over LAND??? Will this be like Fay, except on steroids???

[Javlin]

The models are starting it off right inbetween at 25.9 & 83.1 and ending up in the Biloxi if I am reading that right clfenwi

[scogor]

Well, that certainly explains two very short lived downpours at my home in Sarasota during the last few hours!

[dixiebreeze]

QuikScat: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html