MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (OLGA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 16.0S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.9S 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.1S 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.5S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 16.6S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 16.3S 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.5S 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 147.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09P (OLGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SINCE THE LAST WARNING, TC OLGA HAS
INTENSIFIED BY 15 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 230758Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) OCCURING BETWEEN TC 09P AND AN INVEST AREA
LOCATED 150 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE DCI WILL ENABLE TC OLGA
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE MERGES
WITH THE OTHER SYSTEM BY TAU 24. AS TC 09P CONTINUES INTO THE GULF
OF CARPENTERIA AFTER TAU 36, OLGA WILL RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO VERY WARM
WATERS AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BY TAU 72, TC 09P WILL
ONCE AGAIN REACH LAND AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IN THE EXTENDED TAU'S,
THE STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
MOVE MORE NORTHWEST. THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR JGSM AND TCLAPS WHICH DEPICT
A WEAKER STEERING RIDGE AND TAKE THE SYSTEM IN A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
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