Latest
SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F (12P)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/2038 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [985HPA] CENTRE NEAR 14.2S 162.3W AT 011800
UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS
CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
PRIMARY BAND TO EAST WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ABOUT CENTRE WITH A POSSIBLE CDO FORMING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LOCATED UNDER
250HPA DIFFLUENT REGION WITH RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR. SST AROUND 30C.
DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.8 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.5. PT AND
MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED
SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 15.4S 160.8W MOV SE 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 021800 UCT NEAR 16.4S 159.6W MOV SE 07KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC NEAR 16.7S 158.5W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 17.2S 157.3W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 020230 UTC OR EARLIER.
Feb 01/2038 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [985HPA] CENTRE NEAR 14.2S 162.3W AT 011800
UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 17 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS
CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
PRIMARY BAND TO EAST WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ABOUT CENTRE WITH A POSSIBLE CDO FORMING. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LOCATED UNDER
250HPA DIFFLUENT REGION WITH RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR. SST AROUND 30C.
DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.8 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.5. PT AND
MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED
SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 15.4S 160.8W MOV SE 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 021800 UCT NEAR 16.4S 159.6W MOV SE 07KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC NEAR 16.7S 158.5W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 17.2S 157.3W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 020230 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 161.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 161.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.9S 160.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.2S 159.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.4S 159.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.8S 158.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.9S 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.9S 156.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.4S 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 161.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM WEST
OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF MODERATELY-SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL
AS A 011948Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH DEPICTS CENTER WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND NFFN OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS HAVE REPORTED A WEAKENING TREND AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
STARTED TO WANE SLIGHTLY. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A CHANGE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS WARNING MESSAGE TO REFLECT A SLOWER TRANSLATION SPEED
AND LOWER MAXIMUM INTENSITY. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 12P
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IS NOW FORECAST TO PUSH WESTWARD AND
HINDER SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOVEMENT BY TC 12P. ADDITIONALLY, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG EQUATORWARD TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM WHILE ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TRANSIT
SOUTHWEST OF TC OLI. AS A RESULT, RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE
TROUGHS AND OVER TC OLI, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY
AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES AND THE SYSTEM'S OUTFLOW IMPROVES
INTO THE TROUGHS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS HAVE SLOWED DRASTICALLY
AND HAVE SPREAD OUT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE GFS AND GFDN MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A NORTHWEST MOVE CAUSED BY DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST WHILE THE
NOGAPS AND UKMO SOLUTIONS SHOW TC OLI TAKING A VERY SLOW, POLEWARD
TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE JTWC CONSENSUS, THOUGH IT
FAVORS THE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY NOGAPS AND UKMO SINCE THE
SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE EAST HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
021500Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/0820 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [987HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 161.0W AT
020600 UTC MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST MICROWAVE PASS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST STILL
WRAPPING BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BREAKING UP. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30C.
DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.0. PT=3.0,
MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/W0.5/06 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED
EAST BY WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM LIES
IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS ENTERING REGION OF
INCREASING SHEAR TENDENCY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC NEAR 14.8S 159.9W MOV ESE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 030600 UCT NEAR 15.0S 159.3W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 15.1S 158.6W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC NEAR 15.6S 157.8W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 021430 UTC OR EARLIER.
Feb 02/0820 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [987HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 161.0W AT
020600 UTC MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST MICROWAVE PASS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST STILL
WRAPPING BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BREAKING UP. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30C.
DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.6 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.0. PT=3.0,
MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/W0.5/06 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED
EAST BY WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM LIES
IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS ENTERING REGION OF
INCREASING SHEAR TENDENCY. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHEAST
TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 021800 UTC NEAR 14.8S 159.9W MOV ESE 08KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 030600 UCT NEAR 15.0S 159.3W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 15.1S 158.6W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC NEAR 15.6S 157.8W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 021430 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 14.7S 159.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 159.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.1S 158.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.3S 157.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.7S 156.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.4S 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.8S 155.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.4S 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 21.3S 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 159.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM WEST OF
BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
FLARE AND DISSIPATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER (LLCC). A BROKEN BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH
OF THE LLCC IS APPARENT, BUT HAS STARTED TO ELONGATE EAST-WEST, OUT
PACING THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH A
POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE ENHANCING THE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW CHANNELS. THE LLCC HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNDER THE SPOR-
ADIC CONVECTION, HOWEVER, THE CURRENT POSITION IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE FIXES FROM PGTW AND PHFO. INTENSITY HAS BEEN KEPT CONSTANT
AT 45 KNOTS AS THE ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION HAVE SEEN ONLY SMALL
CHANGES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 12P, WILL TRACK
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS A DEVELOPING EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 12P. THIS EXTENSION WILL THEN
SHIFT THE TRACK TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK AROUND TAU 36 TO 48.
THE TRACK SPEED IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE STR EXTENSION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK THROUGH TAU 120.
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH TAU 72 AS IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ENHANCES THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WITH FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH TAU 72. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BEYOND TAU 72 TO UNFAVORABLE LEVELS HINDERING
OUTFLOW. THE LOWER LEVEL WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TRACK INTO A LESS FAVOR-
ABLE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/1425 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [990HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 159.8W AT
021200 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED ON
MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST MICROWAVE PASS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN
60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST STILL
WRAPPING BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BREAKING UP. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH
AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 07F IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENHANCE THE SYSTEM. SST
AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.5 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT2.5. PT=2.5, MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS.
CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
WINDS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS ENTERING REGION OF INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT RE-INTENSIFIES IT THEREAFTER.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC NEAR 15.0S 159.3W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 158.4W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC NEAR 15.8S 157.5W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC NEAR 16.6S 157.1W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 022030 UTC OR EARLIER.
Feb 02/1425 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [990HPA] CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 159.8W AT
021200 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD BASED ON
MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND LATEST MICROWAVE PASS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 40
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN
60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST STILL
WRAPPING BUT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BREAKING UP. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH
AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 07F IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENHANCE THE SYSTEM. SST
AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.5 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT2.5. PT=2.5, MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS.
CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
WINDS. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT AND IS ENTERING REGION OF INCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TRACK WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT RE-INTENSIFIES IT THEREAFTER.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC NEAR 15.0S 159.3W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 158.4W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC NEAR 15.8S 157.5W MOV ESE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC NEAR 16.6S 157.1W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 022030 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F (12P)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 FEB 2010 Time : 175200 UTC
Lat : 14:54:10 S Lon : 159:15:15 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 978.8mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb
Center Temp : -79.8C Cloud Region Temp : -87.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 FEB 2010 Time : 175200 UTC
Lat : 14:54:10 S Lon : 159:15:15 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 978.8mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.0 4.0
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.8mb
Center Temp : -79.8C Cloud Region Temp : -87.5C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
0 likes
-
Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 38
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
Interesting animation showing total precipitable water.
Latest update : 2010-02-02 18:00 UTC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html
Latest update : 2010-02-02 18:00 UTC
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 02/2032 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [990HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
158.5W AT 021800 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION LATEST MICROWAVE PASS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 40 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING WITH DEVELOPING CDO. PRIMARY
BAND TO EAST FRAGMENTED DUE SHEAR. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH, EAST AND
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP
OF 0.6 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.0. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR
JUST SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK
BEFORE A SOUTHEAST TURN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH A LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION. GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC NEAR 15.4S 157.2W MOV ESE 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 15.6S 156.0W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC NEAR 16.3S 155.1W MOV SE 06KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC NEAR 17.2S 153.9W MOV SE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 030230 UTC OR EARLIER.
Feb 02/2032 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [990HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
158.5W AT 021800 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION LATEST MICROWAVE PASS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 40 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING WITH DEVELOPING CDO. PRIMARY
BAND TO EAST FRAGMENTED DUE SHEAR. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH, EAST AND
SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP
OF 0.6 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.0. PT AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON
DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS. CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY
WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. CIMSS INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR
JUST SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK
BEFORE A SOUTHEAST TURN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH A LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION. GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 030600 UTC NEAR 15.4S 157.2W MOV ESE 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 15.6S 156.0W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC NEAR 16.3S 155.1W MOV SE 06KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC NEAR 17.2S 153.9W MOV SE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 030230 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0214 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [985HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
157.7W AT 030000 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 030035Z AMSUB PASS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING THOUGH SOME WARMING OF TOPS PAST
3 TO 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST STRUGLING TO WRAP DUE TO SHEAR.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.7 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT3.0. PT=3 AND MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS.
CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM ENTERING STRENGTHENINIG SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK BEFORE A SOUTHEAST
TURN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 156.3W MOV ESE 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC NEAR 15.8S 155.3W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC NEAR 16.4S 154.3W MOV SE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC NEAR 17.1S 153.5W MOV SE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 030830 UTC OR EARLIER.
Feb 03/0214 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [985HPA] CAT 1 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 15.3S
157.7W AT 030000 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 030035Z AMSUB PASS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 45 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND
WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING THOUGH SOME WARMING OF TOPS PAST
3 TO 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TO EAST STRUGLING TO WRAP DUE TO SHEAR.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.7 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING
DT3.0. PT=3 AND MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS.
CYCLONE STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. CIMSS INDICATES SYSTEM ENTERING STRENGTHENINIG SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK BEFORE A SOUTHEAST
TURN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED
THEREAFTER.
FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC NEAR 15.4S 156.3W MOV ESE 07KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC NEAR 15.8S 155.3W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC NEAR 16.4S 154.3W MOV SE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC NEAR 17.1S 153.5W MOV SE 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 030830 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 157.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 157.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 16.2S 156.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 17.0S 155.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.9S 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.1S 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.9S 152.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 24.1S 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.5S 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 157.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM WEST OF
BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021648Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021926Z ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH 40-KNOT WINDS. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) JUST
SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THAT
IS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OLI'S
FORECAST TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST BECAUSE
THE STEERING RIDGE APPEARS TO BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DECREASE IN DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A SYSTEM TO THE
EAST. TC OLI WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY
UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN TC 12P
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND DECREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 120, TC OLI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS AS ECMWF AND GFS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WHICH INCLUDE EGRR, GFDN,
JGSM AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 76 guests