SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT (14P)

[HURAKAN]

Really small CDO

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TPPS10 PGTW 081155

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT)

B. 08/1122Z

C. 13.2S

D. 160.5W

E. SIX/GOES11

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .70 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS A 2.5 ABSED ON
CONSTRAINTS. PT YIELDS A 4.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


GATES

[HURAKAN]

08/0822 UTC 12.8S 160.8W T3.5/3.5 PAT -- Southeast Pacific

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

08/1422 UTC 13.2S 160.0W T4.0/4.0 PAT -- Southeast Pacific


65 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Eye visible

[Sheronz]

TPPS10 PGTW 081818

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT)

B. 08/1730Z

C. 13.6S

D. 159.3W

E. SIX/GOES11

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING 3.5 DT. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS 3.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1431Z 13.6S 160.1W TRMM


ROSS

[HURAKAN]

STORM WARNING 045 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 08/1919 UTC 2010 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PAT centre [985hPa] category 2 was located near 14.0
South 159.6 West at 081800 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 14.0S 159.6W at 081800 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast about 11 knots and expected to turn towards
the southwest in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Expect sustained winds of 50 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre
and over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in
sectors from northeast through southeast to southwest and within 60
nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 15.0S 159.2W at 090600 UTC
and near 15.8S 159.3W at 091800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nauticals miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 044.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 159.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 159.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.7S 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.5S 159.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 16.3S 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.9S 161.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 18.3S 165.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.1S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.8S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 159.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST OF
PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
TC 14P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MINIMAL BANDING.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES
AND FROM MULTI-AGENCY FIXES INCLUDING PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM
PGTW. TC PAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION AS A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY
TAU 120, TC 14P WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN UNISON AS FAR AS TURNING THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH THEN
TO THE SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, THERE IS A NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE ENVELOPE
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST PAST TAU 24, WITH JGSM AND
ECMWF TO THE RIGHT OF THE PACK AND WBAR AND UKMET TO THE LEFT. THIS
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE ALONGSIDE JTWC CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/0150 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 159.4W
AT 090000 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH
DEVELOPING WITH TOPS COOLING WHILST STILL WRAPPING AROUND LLCC.
OUTFLOW IMPROVING TO NORTH AND SOUTH. PAT LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION
ALOFT IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP
ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT3.0. PT=3.5 AND MET=3.0. FT BASED ON MET
AND CI HELD AT 3.5. THUS, T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24HRS. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. A TURN TO THE
WEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL BRING THE CYCLONE INTO AREA OF
STRENGTHENING SHEAR, AFTER 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
A SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION IN
THE SHORT TERM BEFORE WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 15.5S 159.3W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 16.3S 159.9W MOV SSW AT 07KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 17.1S 161.0W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 17.8S 162.7W MOV WSW 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 090830 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Sheronz]

ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZFEB2010//
REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081951ZFEB2010//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 081800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.7S 159.7W, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST OF PAGO-PAGO, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN

[Sheronz]

STORM WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/0658 UTC 2010 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone PAT centre [975hPa] category 2 was located near 15.1
South 159.1 West at 090600 UTC.
Position fair.
Repeat position 15.1S 159.1W at 090600 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast about 9 knots and expected to gradually turn
towards the southwest in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre
and over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in
sectors from northeast through southeast to southwest and within 60
nautical miles of centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 16.0S 159.1W at 091800 UTC
and near 16.9S 160.0W at 100600 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nauticals miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 046.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 15.1S 159.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 159.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.1S 158.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.1S 159.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 18.2S 160.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.3S 162.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.0S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.1S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.8S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 159.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14P (PAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST
OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL 240
NM DIAMETER SYSTEM WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION AND TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 090521Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, KNES, AND ABRF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 14P IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC
14P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK EXTENSION OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN AND BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WESTWARD. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BY TAU 36 AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO COOLER SSTS, REDUCED OHC, AND
INCREASED WESTERLY VWS. NEAR TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
AND TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. BY TAU 120 TC 14P WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE
INITIAL TAUS, BUT DIVERGES INTO TWO GROUPINGS IN THE LATER TAUS,
WITH GFS, ECMWF, AND JGSM INDICATING AN ERRONEOUS WESTWARD TRACK DUE
TO EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION, WHILE UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS,
WBAR, AND NOGAPS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z AND 100900Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/0837 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 159.1W
AT 090600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. TOPS COOLING WITH
PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. DUAL OUTFLOW GOOD. PAT
LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN DG, YIELDING DT4.0. PT=4.0 AND
MET=4.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS, T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND
GRADUALLY TURN WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING
SHEAR. AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHWEST
MOVEMENT WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 16.0S 159.1W MOV SW AT 06KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 16.9S 160.0W MOV WSW AT 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 17.5S 161.5W MOV WSW AT 11KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110600 UTC 18.2S 163.5W MOV SW 12KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 091430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/1417 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 158.8W
AT 091200 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED
ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. TOPS COOLING WITH
PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. DUAL OUTFLOW GOOD. PAT
LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN LG, YIELDING DT4.5. PT=4.0 AND
MET=4.0. FT BASED ON MET THUS, T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS. SYSTEM IS UNDER
A NORTH-NORTHEAST STEERING AND THEREFORE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS INTO AN AREA
OF DECREASING SHEAR. AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM.

GLOBAL MODELS DEEPEN THE SYSTEM WHILE MOVING IT SOUTHWEST BEFORE
WEAKENING BEYOND 36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 16.5S 159.1W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 17.6S 160.0W MOV SSW AT 06KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 18.6S 161.4W MOV SW AT 09KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 19.5S 163.4W MOV WSW 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC PAT WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 092030 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest