SPO: TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (13F/20P)

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2010 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 14:21:00 S Lon : 165:41:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 985.4mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.3 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -56.0C Cloud Region Temp : -62.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

This system sure does seem to be ramping up at the moment, the JWTC are VERY agressive taking it upto 125kts!

Still big uncertainties about the track, the JWTC track slows the system down as steering currents become weaker, the ECM does the same but still manages to take it west enough to make landfall on the central eastern coast of Australia as a monster cyclone.

Probably looking at a cat-4/5 with this one it seems!

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 45 knots

[senorpepr]

WTPS02 NFFN 121200
GALE WARNING 011 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/1312 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.4 SOUTH 164.4 EAST AT 121200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.4S 164.4E AT 121200 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.8S 162.9E AT 130000 UTC
AND NEAR 13.4S 161.5E AT 131200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICALS MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 009.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.4S 164.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.9S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.6S 162.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.4S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.4S 159.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 13.8S 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.5S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST
OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING CONVECTION STARTING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE NARROW (AS MEASURED NORTH-
SOUTH) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT SOURCE
REGION LOCATED ABOUT 5 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF TC 20P IS ENHANCING
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. THROUGH TAU 72, TC 20P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AFTER TAU 72, TC 20P WILL START TO SLOW AND
DIP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD AND GENERATE A COMPETING/WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
NEVERTHELESS, THE CYCLONE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED TAU'S DUE TO EVEN MORE ROBUST OHC VALUES. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE IT DIVERGES A
BIT AS SOME SOLUTIONS START TO DEPICT A SHARP TURN BACK TO THE EAST.
THE FACT THE MODELS ARE SLOWING IN THE EXTENDED TAU'S AND BECOMING
LESS AGREEABLE POINTS TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P
(TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

I was in the middle of posting this and was side tracked... lol

747
TXPS26 KNES 121522


A. 20P (NONAME)

B. 12/1430Z

C. 14.4S

D. 165.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...FT BASED ON MET BUT DT AND PT AGREE AT 4.0 BUT CONSTRAINTS
WILL BE USED ATTM. IR IMAGE SHOWS DIMPLE AT CENTER SUGGESTING EYE
FEATURE MAY BE DEVELOPING AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD UPPER STRUCTURE IN
THIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...BALDWIN

SAB is looking at T3.5 or arbout 55 kt. Interesting note that there may be an eye developing on Ului.

[HURAKAN]

12/1430 UTC 14.4S 165.2E T3.5/3.5 20P -- Southwest Pacific

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

WOW. Impressive

[KWT]

Yep looks like its strengthening pretty rapidly as the models suggested. Not all that surprising given just how favourable conditions are with this system at the moment!

The 12z GFS shows a slightly different evolution compared to the 0z run, in that it takes it due south but then rebuilds the ridge again and kicks the system WSW towards land.

This one really is going to need very close watching, the chance is there for a big landfall with this cyclone, hopefully it'll take the more easterly option however.

[Sheronz]

[senorpepr]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 MAR 2010 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 14:28:14 S Lon : 164:39:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.0mb/ 72.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 3.6

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +3.0mb

Center Temp : -61.4C Cloud Region Temp : -71.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[KWT]

Those T numbers are really increasing rapidly senorpepr!

I've got a funny feeling the BoM are going to be busting way too low with this system, probably already 60kts now judging by those rapidly increasing numbers, of course raw numbers are obviously even higher!

[KWT]

12z ECM is out now as well, very good agreement with the 12z GFS on the set-up over the next 180hrs with both landfalling the system close to 20S after taking an intial plunge SW/SSW before turning back WSW.

Both models also show a decent system, the ECM however shows what would probably be a very severe cyclone.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 12/2057 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI CENTRE 985 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 165.0E AT
121800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SLOW. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR
THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTED OVER AND OVERSHADOWED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A
MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL SECTORS.
SST AROUND 30C. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST
BY EAST TO SOUTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 13.4S 163.2E MOV WNW AT 09 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 13.0S 161.6E MOV WNW AT 08 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 12.8S 160.2E MOV W AT 07 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 12.9S 158.9E MOV W AT 06 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 130300 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

I see you!!

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 164.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 164.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.9S 163.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.6S 161.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.5S 160.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.4S 158.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 13.4S 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 13.5S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.8S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 164.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION, RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DEEPER BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
121418Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A HIGHLY REFLECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. TC
20P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES. AFTER TAU 72, TC ULUI WILL START TO SLOW AND
DIP TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD AND GENERATE A COMPETING/WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE IT DIVERGES A
BIT ON THE SPEED OF ADVANCE WITH SOME, NOTABLY UKMET, AT A FASTER
RATE. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR A SLOW DOWN IN THE EXTENDED TAU'S.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 130900Z AND 132100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN