SIO : SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOEL (98S)

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[somethingfunny]

It sure is tiny. Honestly it looks ALOT like some of the systems we've had in the Mediterranean and NE Atlantic. What are the water temperatures like down on the southwest coast of Madagascar?

[HURAKAN]

What are the water temperatures like down on the southwest coast of Madagascar?

[Chacor]

Madagascar, which named the system, is considering it to be a fully tropical Severe TS.

[KWT]

Doesn't look like a depression to me at all, I'd bet its probably got winds closer to 50kts than what they are expecting...

Yep it looks like a classic system that develops in a marginal SST/cool upper conditions type set-up aloft.

[senorpepr]

Doesn't look like a depression to me at all, I'd bet its probably got winds closer to 50kts than what they are expecting...

Yep it looks like a classic system that develops in a marginal SST/cool upper conditions type set-up aloft.

Yeah, looks like the "depression" name is just a semantics thing: MFR and Madagascar are both calling it 50 kt.

[Chacor]

It is simply that MF Réunion do not officially use the terminology "subtropical storm". Madagascar is calling this a Severe Tropical Storm.

[P.K.]

Looks pretty good right now. Up to 60kts.

WTIO30 FMEE 261807


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/16/20092010
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 (JOEL)

2.A POSITION 2010/05/26 AT 1800 UTC :
25.7S / 43.9E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 050 SO: 040 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/05/27 06 UTC: 25.9S/44.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2010/05/27 18 UTC: 26.0S/45.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2010/05/28 06 UTC: 26.3S/45.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2010/05/28 18 UTC: 26.7S/46.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM OF SMALL SIZE GOES ON DEVELOPPING VERY RAPIDLY. CONVECTION IS
NOW ORGANIZED INTO EYE PATTERN WITH CONVECTION BECOMING COLDER.
PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND
HIGH ENVIRONNENTAL PRESSURES.

THE SYSTEM IS ALWAYS UNDER A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SO THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS. SO DURING THIS FAVORABLE PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEEPEN OVER
SEAS ABOUT 24-25 DEGRES BEFORE THE INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR BEYOND.

THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE LEVELS RIDGE LOCATE IN THE NORTH AND EAST OF
THE SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

26/1430 UTC 25.7S 43.8E T3.5/3.5 JOEL -- Southwest Indian

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

Looking really good

[KWT]

Yep 55-60kts looks about right to me as well, very good looking system it has to be said right now, good eye as well. Fairly compact looking system, classic cool SST type system.

[HURAKAN]

Those storms that tropical cyclones look to and say "you're weird." LOL

[AJC3]

The area in and around the Mozambique channel seems to be a climatologically favored area for midget TCs/STCs. This cyclone appears to be (or at least close) to what one would classify as a midget.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 326
WTIO30 FMEE 270022
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/16/20092010
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 (JOEL)
2.A POSITION 2010/05/27 AT 0000 UTC :
25.9S / 44.8E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 090
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/05/27 12 UTC: 26.0S/45.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2010/05/28 00 UTC: 26.3S/46.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2010/05/28 12 UTC: 27.2S/46.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2010/05/29 00 UTC: 28.7S/46.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE EYE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DISAPPEARED DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL
CONDITIONS.
PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND
HIGH ENVIRONNENTAL PRESSURES.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO UNDERGO A SOUTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINTE FORECAST TO
INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUITE
RAPIDLY
DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE LEVELS RIDGE LOCATE OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF
MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWARDS
AS A RIDGE REBUILT EASTH OF THE SYSTEM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 350
WTIO30 FMEE 270618
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/16/20092010
1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 (JOEL)
2.A POSITION 2010/05/27 AT 0600 UTC :
26.0S / 44.8E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 140 SO: 100 NO: 090
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 040 SO: 030 NO: 030
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1013 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/05/27 18 UTC: 26.4S/45.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, SUBTROPICAL.
24H: 2010/05/28 06 UTC: 26.9S/45.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, SUBTROPICAL.
36H: 2010/05/28 18 UTC: 27.7S/46.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LAST NIGHT 2217Z ASCAT SWATH REVEALS A SLIGHT TILD BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL CICULATION CENTER (89GHZ) LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL
ONE (37GHZ).
LLCC HAS THEREFORE BEEN RELOCATED.
FIRST AVAILABLE VISIBLE CHANNEL METEOSAT7 IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE
SUBSISTING
DESPITE THIS NOTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDHSEAR CONSTRAINT.
PHASE DIAGRAM DON'T SUSGEST THAT THIS LOW HAS BECAME TROPICAL, DVORAK
ANALISYS IS THEREFORE NOT SUITABLE FOR INTENSITY ESTIMATION.
40KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE 1926Z ASCAT SWATH AND
37KT
MEASURED BY A BOAT AT 1800Z (ID BATFR38)
PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGH DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND
HIGH ENVIRONNENTAL PRESSURES.
UNDERGOING AN INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (ROTATING SOUTHWESTERLY)
,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS SMALL
SIZE.
IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MIDDLE LEVELS RIDGE LOCATE OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF
MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWARDS AS A
RIDGE
REBUILT EASTH OF THE SYSTEM.=
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

27/0830 UTC 26.1S 45.0E T3.5/3.5 JOEL -- Southwest Indian

55 knots

[HURAKAN]

[img]27/1430 UTC 26.2S 45.7E T3.5/3.5 JOEL -- Southwest Indian[/img]

55 knots