EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E - DISCUSSION

[srainhoutx]

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dixiebreeze]

Hoping this brings some much needed rainfall near Ajijic/Lake Chapala where my daughter lives.

[bob rulz]

It's looking very healthy. I don't see any particular reasons why this couldn't make it to a named storm sooner rather than later. It's definitely looking better than 92E right now. There's some very high clouds peeking out in the latest visibles and there's a very circular ball of convection surrounding the LLC.

[HURAKAN]

Twins ... shear continues to affect 92E

[clfenwi]

There's a renumbering message out.... standing by to see something from the NHC
.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932010_ep022010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006161456
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 02, 2010, DB, O, 2010061512, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 3, EP022010
EP, 02, 2010061500, , BEST, 0, 141N, 954W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 02, 2010061506, , BEST, 0, 141N, 954W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 02, 2010061512, , BEST, 0, 142N, 954W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
EP, 02, 2010061518, , BEST, 0, 144N, 954W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 02, 2010061600, , BEST, 0, 145N, 953W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 125, 75, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 02, 2010061606, , BEST, 0, 146N, 953W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 02, 2010061612, , BEST, 0, 146N, 953W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 50, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

[clfenwi]

And it's official

WTPZ22 KNHC 161523
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
1530 UTC WED JUN 16 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA
MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 16/1530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.6W AT 16/1530Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.8N 96.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.2N 98.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 99.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 95.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z



FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Looking good

[clfenwi]

280
WTPZ32 KNHC 161523
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST MEXICAN COAST



SUMMARY OF 830 AM PDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ESE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ WESTWARD TO LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE
CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONADO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA
MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 830 AM PDT...1530 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS STATIONARY BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
OAXACA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
THESE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.



FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Track

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1209 UTC
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 12-18 HOURS...THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 AND AN IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON-LIKE ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED
BY A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND A EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN YIELDS A SLOW DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW... AND
HELPS TO EXPLAIN WHY THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE. THIS IS BORNE
OUT IN RECENT CENTER FIXES WHICH GIVE LITTLE MOTION...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BUILDING WESTWARD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST.

THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LOWER
LGEM GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1530Z 14.8N 95.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 14.8N 96.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 97.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 15.2N 98.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 99.3W 40 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W 45 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN

[Macrocane]

Finally a tropical cyclone to track. I have a question, this system is not the strong hurricane that the models are developing, is it? I have seen the models and it seems that another disturbance will form and develop into a strong hurricane and this one will only reach TS storm strength and dissipate, am I wrong?

[cycloneye]

Finally a tropical cyclone to track. I have a question, this system is not the strong hurricane that the models are developing, is it? I have seen the models and it seems that another disturbance will form and develop into a strong hurricane and this one will only reach TS storm strength and dissipate, am I wrong?

Yes,is another disturbance as for example,ECMWF starts the developning at 120 hours.

[cycloneye]

437
WTPZ32 KNHC 161739
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022010
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 95.7W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF PUNTO MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM WEST OF LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA
MALDONADO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
OAXACA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.
THESE COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[KWT]

Looking at the Vis loops its quite obvious there is some shear on the system from the east, but its really not all that bad to be honest, just enough to slightly displace the convection onto the western side and slightly expose the far eastern part of the LLC.

As long as it doesn't get any worse, the system should slowly continue to strengthen...thankfully the shear is meaning the convection is mainly staying offland.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 161832
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC WED JUN 16 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (EP022010) 20100616 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100616 1800 100617 0600 100617 1800 100618 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 95.7W 15.7N 97.5W 16.4N 99.5W 17.3N 101.5W
BAMD 14.9N 95.7W 15.5N 97.3W 16.1N 99.0W 16.7N 100.8W
BAMM 14.9N 95.7W 15.6N 97.4W 16.2N 99.4W 16.9N 101.3W
LBAR 14.9N 95.7W 15.4N 97.1W 16.1N 99.3W 16.7N 101.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100618 1800 100619 1800 100620 1800 100621 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 103.5W 19.7N 108.3W 20.8N 113.7W 20.9N 118.6W
BAMD 17.3N 102.6W 18.4N 106.8W 19.6N 111.7W 20.8N 116.1W
BAMM 17.7N 103.3W 18.9N 108.2W 20.0N 114.1W 20.3N 119.7W
LBAR 17.7N 104.1W 19.6N 110.2W 21.0N 115.4W 12.8N 118.4W
SHIP 57KTS 67KTS 68KTS 67KTS
DSHP 57KTS 67KTS 68KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.9N LONCUR = 95.7W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 95.3W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 14.4N LONM24 = 95.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[clfenwi]

59% chance of 25 knot RI. Not too shabby.

** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022010 TWO 06/16/10 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%)

[KWT]

I'd be very surprised if it undergoes RI in the next 24hrs whilst there is that easterly shear. As I said its not going to be enough to prevent strengthening but I do think 59% is probably a little on the high side of what I'd put on the percentage of RI risk.

Still strengthening is to be expected and I wouldn't be all that surprised if the NHC are a little on the low side in terms of thier intensity, even if the SHIPS hasn't got a great grip on the shear levels as the NHC suspect.

[clfenwi]

I'd be very surprised if it undergoes RI in the next 24hrs whilst there is that easterly shear. As I said its not going to be enough to prevent strengthening but I do think 59% is probably a little on the high side of what I'd put on the percentage of RI risk.

Still strengthening is to be expected and I wouldn't be all that surprised if the NHC are a little on the low side in terms of thier intensity, even if the SHIPS hasn't got a great grip on the shear levels as the NHC suspect.

Good point. Due to bandwidth limitations, I'm not watching any loops right now, but just looking at still images, there appears to be either more shear than the few knots anlyzed by GFS** or there's midlevel shear that doesn't get represented in the 850 mb - 250 mb level calculation.

** Recall that SHIPS receives its shear data from GFS analaysis.