ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - ADVISORIES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 90.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. A MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


000
WTNT41 KNHC 272035
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. NEAR THE
CENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ
RECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT
AT 30 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
OFFSHORE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE
YIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8. THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE
LONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE
ON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...
ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
NORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER
RIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO
MEXICO. OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

WHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY
NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY
AFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE
GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS
A TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND
IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 19.2N 90.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.9N 91.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.6N 92.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 22.3N 94.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 23.2N 96.3W 80 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 24.0N 98.5W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 280233
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0300 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 20SE 20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 20SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 91.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 92.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 92.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.9N 93.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
34 KT...180NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.6N 94.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 110SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.5N 96.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...225NE 125SE 60SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 24.3N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 91.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[KFDM Meteorologist]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

...ALEX REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 91.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND ALEX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
GUATEMALA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

HEAVY RAINFALL COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREA OF TAMAULIPAS AND
VERACRUZ TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280241
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ALEX THIS
EVENING AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PLANE ALSO
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 41 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION IS REFORMING...
BANDING FEATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST. BASED
UPON THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON
SATELLITE IMAGES...ALEX IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...
SHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY
DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/
UKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE
ALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE
LATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS
TIME.

NOW THAT THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ALEX MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BOTH OF
THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
UNTIL LANDFALL. PERHAPS THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CIRCULATION...AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO
CONSOLIDATE FURTHER. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS...
IT IS STILL PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW ALEX
STRENGTHENING TO MORE THAN A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO
FORECAST A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIPS/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT. IN ANY EVENT...IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE SKILL OF 2 TO 3-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS IS VERY
LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 19.4N 91.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 20.1N 92.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 21.0N 92.7W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 21.9N 93.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 22.6N 94.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 23.5N 96.7W 85 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 24.3N 98.8W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 280851
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -84C HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT AROUND 05Z FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
TO STILL BE AROUND 991 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD INCREASED TO
51 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 38 AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO
MEASURED AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ON
ITS OUTBOUND LEG. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MARKED INCREASE
IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE RECON FIX...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 BASED ON RECON FIX DATA.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS
ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE THESE
STRIKING SIMILARITIES...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. FOR
THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL...
CMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN
CONTRAST...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE
MOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THOSE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL
SUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND
WEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT
ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...
GREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.

THE NORMALLY ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE STILL ONLY FORECASTING
MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERPLEXING
GIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN AND IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE
STRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND
THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS
...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY
RELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 19.7N 91.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 20.3N 91.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 22.4N 93.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 23.3N 94.7W 85 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 24.6N 97.0W 95 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 25.6N 99.2W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/0600Z 26.5N 101.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 281443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN



ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1500 UTC MON JUN 28 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 91.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 91.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.1N 92.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.3N 92.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.5N 94.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.3N 95.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 91.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 281445
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALEX HAS BECOME A LITTLE DISTORTED
THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 66 KT...SFMR VALUES OF 51 KT...AND A DECREASE IN PRESSURE
TO 989 MB. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 50 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKENING OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD
BACK IN SLIGHTLY AND STEER ALEX MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD
HELP DETERMINE WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR MAKES MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD. THERE HAS BEEN A
SUBTLE SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH SOME OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.

SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALEX...ALTHOUGH THIS
HAS NOT PREVENTED THE STORM FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING. THIS SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO ABATE BY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD THEN ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. THE STATISTICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE
INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIKELY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 91.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.1N 92.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.3N 92.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 23.5N 94.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 24.3N 95.5W 85 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 25.5N 97.7W 80 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/1200Z 26.5N 99.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 281736
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. ALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RESUME MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...LATER TODAY.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 282031
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT CAYO
ARCAS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH...53 KM/HR...AND
A GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
THE MEXICAN NAVY STATION AT CAYO ARCAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE
OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN
VERACRUZ OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


000
WTNT41 KNHC 282037
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT THE INTENSITY OF ALEX HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 990 MB...UP JUST A BIT FROM
THIS MORNING. DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ALEX IS EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY
WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND
ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DRY AIR
IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE LIKELY BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX TODAY. ALSO...SINCE ALEX HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE
SHALLOW SHELF WATERS WEST OF THE YUCATAN ALL DAY...SOME UPWELLING
OF COOL WATER COULD BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING.

ONCE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND ALEX MOVES TOWARD A
WARM EDDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE THE STRONGEST OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS. ALSO...ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE
LANDFALL BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST...BUT NONE OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THIS
TIME.

ALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST
LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
330 DEGREES...AT 4 KNOTS. AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF MOVES EAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERALLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALEX. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAS GENERALLY TRENDED
SOUTHWARD AND FASTER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. ACCORDINGLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BUT NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 20.5N 91.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 92.4W 60 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 22.9N 93.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 23.8N 95.1W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 25.5N 99.5W 60 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 101.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 282351
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX MOVING LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 91.6W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME A NORTH-NORTWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...TONIGHT.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. A HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTER OF ALEX.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT CAYO
ARCAS...LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF ALEX...
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/HR...AND
A GUST OF 45 MPH...73 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HEAVY RAINS COULD REACH THE COASTAL AREAS OF TAMAULIPAS AND NORTHERN
VERACRUZ OF MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290242
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 91.6W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF
BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN


WTNT41 KNHC 290248
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE
THAT THE STORM IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 68 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED WINDS WERE 53 KT.
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS DROPPED TO 985 MB...A RATHER LOW VALUE FOR A TROPICAL STORM.
BASED ON THE WIND MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
STORM HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4. THIS MOTION IS BELIEVED TO
BE TEMPORARY BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT.
THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO THE
NORTH DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS WELL. ONE SHOULD NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AVERAGE
TRACK FORECAST ERROR IN THE 48- TO 72-HOUR TIME FRAME IS 100-150
NAUTICAL MILES.

THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING ALEX HAS ABATED AND THE SHIPS
MODEL DIAGNOSES A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR...TO BELOW 10 KT IN 24
HOURS. AS ALEX MOVES AWAY FROM THE SHELF WATERS NEAR THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN...IT SHOULD PASS OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE
PROJECTED TRACK IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF A WARM EDDY OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF. IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL
AND HWRF MODELS STILL DO NOT FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS WE SPEAK. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE STATISTICAL LGEM GUIDANCE...AND IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

GIVEN THE LATEST 36-HR FORECAST POINT AND THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST...IT IS TIME TO UPGRADE
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS
AND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 21.0N 91.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 22.2N 92.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 23.6N 93.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 24.5N 95.2W 75 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 25.2N 96.9W 80 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 25.7N 99.6W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[Brent]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290544
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[southerngale]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 290839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE AS FAR INLAND AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART








000
WTNT41 KNHC 290855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

A 0525Z AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT FOUND TWO PEAK 925 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT LOCATED ABOUT 20 AND 45 NMI NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER. RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS ALONG THAT LEG WERE
AROUND 57 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB. SINCE THAT
RECON FLIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SMALL DEVELOPING EYE HAS ALSO INCREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND
GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR
...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR
JUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0114Z SSMIS AND 0243Z AMSU OVERPASSES INDICATED
A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE VERY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL RECON CENTER
POSITION. THIS INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS A NEARLY VERTICALLY ALIGNED
INNER CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION
GIVEN THE VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS THAT
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0900Z 21.7N 91.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 29/1800Z 22.8N 92.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.2W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1800Z 24.8N 95.9W 80 KT
48HR VT 01/0600Z 25.3N 97.4W 85 KT...NEAR NE MEXICAN COAST
72HR VT 02/0600Z 26.0N 100.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/0600Z 27.5N 102.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

608
WTNT31 KNHC 291153
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ALEX MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 92.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST. ALEX IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A
MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION AT CAYO ARENAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 68 MPH...109 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291431
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST. ALEX IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE
LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 291743
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 93.6W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ALEX IS NOW
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE
LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO BEFORE
LANDFALL...AND ALEX IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42055...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 38 MPH...
61 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 292035
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.0W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX
WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED....AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOMETIME
TONIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 292047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT. SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THIS
PATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL
FIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.

ALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
310/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
ALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
HAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF. THUS...
THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF
NECESSARY.

ALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL
OCCURRING. THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE
INTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK
INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT. THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS
NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE
FORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST
POINTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 23.2N 94.0W 60 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 23.9N 95.1W 65 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 24.5N 96.5W 75 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.9N 98.1W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 01/1800Z 25.2N 99.9W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 02/1800Z 25.5N 103.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
96HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 292349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...ALEX NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE APPROACHING
THE CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 94.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ALEX IS STRENGTHENING AND AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE
CENTER SHORTLY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE
SURGE COULD PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE
WITH DEPTH GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300233
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010

ALEX HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER ON A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LEG AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB BY
DROPSONDE. THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 62
KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOON THEREAFTER...THE
AIRCRAFT HAD TO DEPART THE AREA DUE TO RADAR FAILURE. BASED ON THE
SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE SINCE EARLIER TODAY AND THE
FACT THAT HIGHER SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT...ALEX IS BEING UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE
FOR THIS ADVISORY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10
KT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO LANDFALL. THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 33 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...I.E. A 30-KT INCREASE OVER 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX
STRENGTHENING BEYOND CATEGORY ONE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND ABOUT THE
SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

ALEX WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER SOME
SMOOTHING...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8. SHORT-TERM
FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND GFS SUGGEST
THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION IS TEMPORARY AND THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK SHOULD RESUME SOON. THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH
ALEX REACHING THE COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE JOG TO
THE LEFT...THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PREDICTED LANDFALL POINT BECAUSE OF
TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...AND ALSO BECAUSE THIS IS A LARGE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 23.1N 94.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 23.7N 96.0W 75 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 24.2N 97.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 24.6N 99.2W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
100 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 94.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE AND THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE
23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. ALEX HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY
IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR...AND A SLOW
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. ALEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE
COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...NOAA BUOY 42055
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF ALEX REPORTED A
ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH AND A GUST TO 58 MPH.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 301140
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
700 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010

...ALEX MOVING IN NO HURRY......


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.3W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. ALEX IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A SLOW WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALEX IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
ALEX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALEX
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF ALEX RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...86 KM/HR WITH A GUST OF 63
MPH...101 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ALEX
ARE SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS LATER THIS
MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE COULD
PENETRATE INLAND AS FAR AS SEVERAL MILES FROM THE SHORE WITH DEPTH
GENERALLY DECREASING AS THE WATER MOVES INLAND. NEAR THE COAST...
THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA