EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[KWT]

Models are quite suggestive of development with this it seems and conditions appear to be steadily becoming more condusive.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[clfenwi]

Went to 50% at the 11 PM PDT TWO, where it remains this morning.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN CONCENTRATED NEAR A SMALL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

14/1145 UTC 14.9N 105.6W T1.5/1.5 96E -- East Pacific

25 knots

[KWT]

Looking at the current presentation, it looks like its starting to slowly get itself better organised, though its clearly not quite there yet from the looks of things.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like easterly shear is affecting the system

[cycloneye]

Code Red, up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER

[KWT]

Hmmm yeah that does look a little on the sheared side actually Hurakan, the convection all lumped onto the western side...probably could still get an upgrade from such a presentation though.

[clfenwi]

As KWT suggests, an upgrade may be imminent based on appearance. Coveted 2.0 Dvorak rating from SSD:

14/1745 UTC 14.7N 106.7W T2.0/2.0 96E

[HURAKAN]

TWC says the NHC is giving it a 50% chance of development. Does anyone of them reads the TWO when it comes out?

Incredible.

[KWT]

As KWT suggests, an upgrade may be imminent based on appearance. Coveted 2.0 Dvorak rating from SSD:

14/1745 UTC 14.7N 106.7W T2.0/2.0 96E

Yeah probably enough for an upgrade, 2.0 would be enough normally and whilst it looks sheared its still got decent convection and clearly a circulation.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track upgrades to TD

EP, 06, 2010071418, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1067W, 30, 1006, TD

[clfenwi]

Renumbering message is out

EP, 06, 2010071418, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1067W, 30, 1006, TD

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 107.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE
107.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION...ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


621
WTPZ41 KNHC 142035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO
BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KT IS BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND 30 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 285/11. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS GRADUALLY BUILD A RIDGE FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS
WESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO BY DAY 3...AND
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY DAY 5. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING
IN A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE PAST 3
DAYS AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE THAT WOULD ALTER THAT GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS....TVCN.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR
THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS
ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST MOTION...THE DEPRESSION
SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS
ARE REQUIRED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.9N 107.2W 30 KT
12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT
24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.2N 112.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 114.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 17/1800Z 17.2N 118.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.6N 122.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[KWT]

Well thats a very conservative forecast, just about getting to TS status. To be honest though it makes sense I feel because there is clearly some shear on this system at the moment.