ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Indeed Steve, only the UKMO manages to avoid land on this suite of the models...

Convection looks impressive right now even if we are at Dmax, and just subjectivly, it does look like a developing system to me right now, of course remember in this part of the basin we may have to wait till its near TS strength for an upgrade...

92L gave just a hint earlier in June about what may happen in this part of the basin...

it needs a latitude adjustment to get really cooking, just keep the keys and south florida in the crosshairs for the next few days and life is good, although its the trusty gyro with a sfl hit i still like my chances this far out to avoid a hit, some of you will know what im talking about

[cycloneye]

The Caribbean folks can go to the Caribbean thread at U.S & Caribbean Weather forum to post all about preparations in their respective islands.

[Nimbus]

I don't like the looks of this setup with so much moisture ahead and the early models keeping the Atlantic ridge intact.

[WeatherGuesser]

[Vortmax1]

Wow!
Really something to wake up to.
It certainly appears to be a developing system out there...and coming on quickly also.

[Vortmax1]

24 hour surface forecast:

[cycloneye]

At the rate this is going,it may be less than 48 hours.

[jinftl]

At what rate? I am a bit out of the loop.....is 91L really getting its act together in a hurry? Or is this a case of the excitement over 91L outpacing the actual formation of the system?

At the rate this is going,it may be less than 48 hours.

[Vortmax1]

It could be by tomorrow Luis according to that TPC 24 hour forecast.

Is the intensity guidance ok to post here or does it belong in the model thread?

[jinftl]

Do folks think this will be on code red (development likely in the next 48 hours) on the 8am TWO from the NHC?

[cycloneye]

Do folks think this will be on code red (development likely in the next 48 hours) on the 8am TWO from the NHC?

Yes,60%.

[Vortmax1]

I think we'll see code red at 8.

[cycloneye]

At what rate? I am a bit out of the loop.....is 91L really getting its act together in a hurry? Or is this a case of the excitement over 91L outpacing the actual formation of the system?

At the rate this is going,it may be less than 48 hours.

From yesterday when it was disorganized with two features fighting for dominance to today when it is organizing fairly at a good pace speaks volumes about this system down the road.

[wzrgirl1]

I too think that that chances will go to code red at the 8:00 TWO. Maybe if we are lucky it will reach it's full potential, level off and start to weaken prior to hitting land. We can hope for that right?

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%,Code Red

ABNT20 KNHC 011133
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

[jinftl]

You called it right!

Do folks think this will be on code red (development likely in the next 48 hours) on the 8am TWO from the NHC?

Yes,60%.

[wzrgirl1]

My graphic still shows 40%...wonder why it didn't update.

[cycloneye]

My graphic still shows 40%...wonder why it didn't update.

It takes a few minutes to update.

[cwachal]

This reminds me of a storm that has plenty of time to strengthen even if it does it slowly we could still be looking at a major hurricane sometime during its path

[jinftl]

Why is it moving so slowly? Usually these systems are shuttled west or wnw at 10-15 mph, sometimes faster when they are so far out in the atlantic.

DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH