ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008040049
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010080400, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 118N, 620W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 637W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 128N, 655W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 132N, 673W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 691W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008040049
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010080400, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010080300, , BEST, 0, 118N, 620W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080306, , BEST, 0, 123N, 637W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080312, , BEST, 0, 128N, 655W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080318, , BEST, 0, 132N, 673W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010080400, , BEST, 0, 135N, 691W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 90, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

That was an error at the atcf site but rapidly was deactivated in favor of the right one 92L.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al982010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008040056
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[HURAKAN]

I just posted that to show why WU had Invest 98L

[TheBurn]

[Recurve]

Can somebody catch me up?

92L is the disturbance in the eastern Caribbean, designated 20% chance (yellow) on the NHC chart now?

If I remember right, the GFS runs for Colin were showing something developing in the Caribbean and becoming stronger than Colin, winding up in Central America, Honduras I think. Does that sound right?

[cycloneye]

Is getting away from South America.

[HURAKAN]

track

[Ivanhater]

It does look good right now..I wonder how fast it's moving?

Edit: I guess I answered my own question with the TWO
Here is the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the NHC on it for those that missed it..

000
ABNT20 KNHC 032344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[Recurve]

OK, another dumb question. Is the blob at 10 north or the one at 15 north farther east?

[hurricaneCW]

Well at least this will be something to track. It looks ok but I don't know about the environment ahead of it. It should also either hit Central America or perhaps the southern Yucatan unless it ramps up quickly and takes advantage of the weakness in the ridge.

[cycloneye]

OK, another dumb question. Is the blob at 10 north or the one at 15 north farther east?

The one farther east.As I said in my post about the warm waters,it will track thru the highest TCHP values in the Atlantic Basin.

[Recurve]

Thanks Cycloneye.
So it's this from the tropical discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W S OF 16N
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THIS WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF
MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 66W AND
72W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTION OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA.

[HURAKAN]

anticyclone over the system

[Recurve]

Weak system steering pretty much due west in Central Caribbean.

[Dean4Storms]

Weak system steering pretty much due west in Central Caribbean.

Yes provided it stays weak. That ridge over the south central US is expected to retrograde back to the west and weaken, if 92L pulls the lid off and deepens alot look out Gulf region!

[Hurricane]

How much shear is there in the Gulf? Is there anything coming up that will inhibit development?

[HURAKAN]

looking good tonight

[fci]

As we progress now, Invests and systems should be much more frequent , keeping it interesting for us S2K'ers.
Now... Will we get another doomsday post like we did with Invest 91 (something about hours of traffic back ups in Florida) while it was 3000 miles away?

[Javlin]

How much shear is there in the Gulf? Is there anything coming up that will inhibit development?

The cimss map above shows at the current time it's 5-10mph with 30's along NGOM.

sorry wrong map http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[chzzdekr81]

What's everyone's guesses on the percentage of this becoming a tropical cyclone (at 2AM)