ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[psyclone]

well there's certainly plenty of warm water... i was out at the beach last evening and could just feel the heat radiating off the water in the onshore flow. surface water temps around the tampa bay region are in the upper 80's to near 90.

[supercane]

Northerly shear evident with no sign of westerly winds. Map made in UW-CIMSS with vis, obs, shear overlayed.

[Sanibel]

Getting hot and humid at night here too. Definitely a hurricane season feel to the air.

[wzrgirl1]

Is it possible for this invest to ramp up to a TS before coming across Florida?

[KatDaddy]

There is rotation visible from viewing the satellite images to the ESE of Jacksonville, FLA.

[AdamFirst]

This is just what we need. While the drought index is normal many cities in south and central florida have significant rainfall deficits, 4 inches or more. Bring it on!

[Ptarmigan]

I don't see anything circled for 94L at the NHC site. Hmmmmmmmm....... I saw the path and has it heading into GOM and Texas. If it develops, it would either be Danielle or Earl.

[SouthFloridawx]

I don't see anything circled for 94L at the NHC site. Hmmmmmmmm....... I saw the path and has it heading into GOM and Texas. If it develops, it would either be Danielle or Earl.

It should be on the 2pm Outlook.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

[cycloneye]

This position=26.5N 83.5W is the one the first mission is tentativly going to next tuesday. That position is SW of Tampa.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES WEST
OF BERMUDA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN

[CrazyC83]

Elongated but it seems a circulation is there. I'd put it higher than 10% for sure.

[Sanibel]

I think it is further into the favorable formation areas. So if it develops it might do better than the Atlantic systems are currently doing. Especially if it goes under a ridge west.

[tailgater]

it must be August.

[cycloneye]

This is an experimental graphic by TAFB.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/fxc/index. ... 081200.png

[brunota2003]

I think this is one the NHC thinks stands a way better chance once it gets into the Gulf. I would expect that it will reach 20 or 30% tonight/tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 94, 2010080818, , BEST, 0, 295N, 795W, 25, 1011, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[ROCK]

looks to me the MLC moving due south closer to the blow up.....I could see this crossing FL as far as Miami....

[chzzdekr81]

Wxman, do you think this will become a tropical storm?

[chzzdekr81]

Here's the path of Tropical Storm Edouard which had winds up to 65 mph: