ATL: IGOR - Ex Hurricane - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

That's odd they issued a special outlook and only raised it to 40 percent.

[Weatherfreak000]

Special TWO? You can really tell this is a very nice circulation on MIMIC, and it continues to look better.

[cycloneye]

That's odd they issued a special outlook and only raised it to 40 percent.

And also issuing it in the Eastern Atlantic.

[Brent]

That's odd they issued a special outlook and only raised it to 40 percent.

And also issuing it in the Eastern Atlantic.

That really surprised me too.

[Ivanhater]

Vorticity coming into view....impressive

[cycloneye]

The atcf site is working now. Here are the best track positions from the start.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009080344
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2010, DB, O, 2010090718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912010
AL, 91, 2010090700, , BEST, 0, 128N, 189W, 25, 1008, DB, ,
AL, 91, 2010090706, , BEST, 0, 132N, 195W, 25, 1008, DB,
AL, 91, 2010090712, , BEST, 0, 137N, 201W, 25, 1008, DB,
AL, 91, 2010090718, , BEST, 0, 141N, 205W, 25, 1008, DB,
AL, 91, 2010090800, , BEST, 0, 142N, 213W, 25, 1008, DB,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[canes101]

Where is the special outlook??

[SFLcane]

Where is the special outlook??

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/080247.shtml

[canes101]

Thank you sir

[supercane]

This is only a two page thread, so you can see it back on the first page.
Not the most favorable environment right now with easterly shear:

And ASCAT missed but caught edge of circulation:

[HURAKAN]

335
ABNT20 KNHC 080551
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 8 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH OF ABILENE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5
AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THIS SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF GASTON...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SANTO
DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 525
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
DISSIPATED. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[ColinDelia]

Puerto Rico Forecast Discussion

OVER THE NEXT 6-8 DAYS...WE`LL BE ALSO WATCHING WHAT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE TO BE NAMED
"IGOR" AS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTING OVR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS AND WHICH NHC HAS DESIGNATED AS INVEST 91L WITH A
50% CHANCE OF TC FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS SYSTEM STILL
6-8 DAYS FROM THREATENING ANY LAND AREAS. THE 08/00Z ECMWF BRINGS
THIS SYSTEM TO 20N AND 60W AND FARTHEST WEST THAN ANY OF THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. RECURVATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON
THE EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH FCST TO TAKE PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS ERN NOAM WHICH ECMWF SHOWS THE LEAST
AMPLIFICATION AND GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST. STILL MANY DAYS OUT
WITH A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERRORS IN THE MODELS.

[alan1961]

The blob exiting the african coast should kick start
91L into action..or will it be a new invest?

[ColinDelia]

The blob exiting the african coast should kick start
91L into action..or will it be a new invest?

Edited: looks like all models are on board with this becoming just one TC now

[ColinDelia]

Here is an interesting discussion from PREDICT written yesterday afternoon on
91L (PGI41L below) and PGI42L

Notes:

Two days ago, the models definitely favored PGI42L over PGI41L.
Yesterday, ECMWF was the only one that kept that same story.
Today, it seems that all of the models are back on the same page
by depicting PGI42L as the storm which absorbs PGI41L ... except
UKMET, which keeps them as separate, westward-moving pouches.

UPDATE: ECMWF just came in ... and the story is different!
Although PGI42L is initially a large pouch at analysis, ECMWF
dissipates PGI42L quickly as it approaches the west coast of
Africa, and only PGI41L moves out over the Atlantic. So ECMWF
is different from the other models as well as its own previous
forecasts.

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... opsis.html

[ColinDelia]

2 areas of vorticity. Which one will dominate?

[jlauderdal]

Puerto Rico Forecast Discussion

OVER THE NEXT 6-8 DAYS...WE`LL BE ALSO WATCHING WHAT IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE TO BE NAMED
"IGOR" AS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTING OVR THE
PAST SVRL DAYS AND WHICH NHC HAS DESIGNATED AS INVEST 91L WITH A
50% CHANCE OF TC FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THIS SYSTEM STILL
6-8 DAYS FROM THREATENING ANY LAND AREAS. THE 08/00Z ECMWF BRINGS
THIS SYSTEM TO 20N AND 60W AND FARTHEST WEST THAN ANY OF THE REST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. RECURVATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON
THE EVOLUTION/AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR TROUGH FCST TO TAKE PLACE
EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS ERN NOAM WHICH ECMWF SHOWS THE LEAST
AMPLIFICATION AND GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST. STILL MANY DAYS OUT
WITH A LOT OF ROOM FOR ERRORS IN THE MODELS.

talk about bullish on development, good lord that is an aggressive discussion

[Cryomaniac]

:uarrow:

2 areas of vorticity. Which one will dominate?

Wouldn't the stronger one have the edge?

[ColinDelia]

talk about bullish on development, good lord that is an aggressive discussion

I was surprised at that

[cwachal]

So last night they issue a special statement to raise it to 40% and then this morning it is only gone up 10% all night since then????