ATL: KARL - Models

[cycloneye]

Take a very close look at the model plots cycloneye posted, in particular the BAM runs. Note the 120-hr positions on the text output and then compare those 120hr points to the map below. I noticed this just today. The BAM models are now being run out to 168 hrs (7 days). The extra 2 days appear on the model plots but not in the text output.

I know that the NHC is experimenting with a 7-day forecast track internally this year (and for the next few years). I'll bet they are running the models out to 7 days to assist them in their internal 7-day tracks. No sign of the GFDL/HWRF being run 7 days yet, though.

That is good to know about that extension. I didn't noticed until I read your post.

[HurricaneBelle]

Take a very close look at the model plots cycloneye posted, in particular the BAM runs. Note the 120-hr positions on the text output and then compare those 120hr points to the map below. I noticed this just today. The BAM models are now being run out to 168 hrs (7 days). The extra 2 days appear on the model plots but not in the text output.

I know that the NHC is experimenting with a 7-day forecast track internally this year (and for the next few years). I'll bet they are running the models out to 7 days to assist them in their internal 7-day tracks. No sign of the GFDL/HWRF being run 7 days yet, though.

They've been sharing them with HPC because on several occasions I've seen the HPC referring to 6 and 7-day positions from TPC/NHC in their discussions.

[KWT]

Take a very close look at the model plots cycloneye posted, in particular the BAM runs. Note the 120-hr positions on the text output and then compare those 120hr points to the map below. I noticed this just today. The BAM models are now being run out to 168 hrs (7 days). The extra 2 days appear on the model plots but not in the text output.

I know that the NHC is experimenting with a 7-day forecast track internally this year (and for the next few years). I'll bet they are running the models out to 7 days to assist them in their internal 7-day tracks. No sign of the GFDL/HWRF being run 7 days yet, though.

Thats very interesting indeed!

Thats the first time I've noticed this on the BAMs though, the previous runs only went out to 5 days but it seems like they've updated those runs and now put it out to day-7.

Anyway 12z GFS on its way out now...

[KWT]

12z GFS out to 108hrs:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal108.gif

Heading near due west upto this point along 15N but I'd imagine with a bit of strengthening it'd start to lift out WNW.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS looks a little bit stronger.

120 hours.

[cycloneye]

KWT, surpasses the 15N line at 144 hours.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

If the 500 on GFS is right looks like Mexico to me.

[cycloneye]

168 hours,Yucatan landfall imminent.

[KWT]

Yeah 12z heading into Yucatan and probably into the BoC...that being said I wouldn't be all that surprised if the system ends up to the north of where the GFS is expecting as the model keeps it very weak till the W.Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

180. There is your Yucatan landfall. Off topic, hey Igor!! what is that?

[Wx_Warrior]

NAM actually builds 2 storms in carib.

[KWT]

The GFS effectivly pulls an Iris, the system heads west then WNW and before the Yucatan actually starts to bend back slightly WSW a little as the upper high builds in as it makes landfall....

The BIG difference is the models suggest enough of a tug from the north to lift it back WNW/NW over the Yucatan and towards the BoC...looks like a Mexico run this time round.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what GFDL and HWRF have in their first run in less than an hour.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 0z had SETX. Put the ol' flip flops on.

[BigB0882]

I would be shocked if this isn't a Yucatan and then Mexican threat. What else would it be in 2010 if it can't recurve? lol

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Let's see....Last Night the GFS had Galveston now it has Mexico. Got to love it.

[KWT]

The 12z GFS slows this one right down in the BoC but does eventually make landfall in Central Mexico.

[ConvergenceZone]

I would be shocked if this isn't a Yucatan and then Mexican threat. What else would it be in 2010 if it can't recurve? lol

I would be shocked if it's a Mexico storm, due to all of the ones we've already had that have went to Mexico...Luck has to run out sooner or later.

[RL3AO]

I would be shocked if this isn't a Yucatan and then Mexican threat. What else would it be in 2010 if it can't recurve? lol

You'd be shocked if the model was wrong 8 days out? Well, I suggest you prepare to be shocked.

[ronjon]

Hmmm...180 hours just to get to the NE Yucatan. Be watching this one a long time.