ATL: JULIA - Ex-TC - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

After all the wimpy,dead, experts will fail, etc etc etc season talk in early to mid August, it looks like it will be a hyperactive season at the end and the experts will be rewarded by nailing the numbers and ACE.

But the public will see it as an inactive season, due to the few landfalls, and those are the people who matter, in the sense of preparation and awareness.

Better wait for the last half of the season. You're definitely under the gun there in NC. Gulf, too. Development area will soon be shifting westward, increasing chances of Caribbean/U.S. hits. Plenty of heat content in the Caribbean, too.

Wxman has been beating this drum for a while. I think he is trying to tell us something I'd listen.

[Annie Oakley]

Not going to be much sleeping this weekend or from here on out watching all these systems.

[AussieMark]

Wxman has been beating this drum for a while. I think he is trying to tell us something I'd listen.

gotta watch out for those late season nasties like Mitch in 1998, Iris and Michelle in 2001, Wilma in 2005

[Ivanhater]

Wxman has been beating this drum for a while. I think he is trying to tell us something I'd listen.

gotta watch out for those late season nasties like Mitch in 1998, Iris and Michelle in 2001, Wilma in 2005

I'd add in a little Opal

[Cryomaniac]

After all the wimpy,dead, experts will fail, etc etc etc season talk in early to mid August, it looks like it will be a hyperactive season at the end and the experts will be rewarded by nailing the numbers and ACE.

I dunno about number of named storms (some were calling for 18-20 weren't they?) ACE will probably show a hyperactive season though.

[MGC]

This disturbance had some good spin while over Africa...I'd say the chances are greater than 30% for this to develope in the next couple of day.....wonder if this disturbance or 92L will get named first.....MGC

[Weatherfreak000]

Can we please stop seeing all these posts about how no U.S. landfalls makes this season somehow unworthy?


First of all i'd like to FORGET what the public will think. The advantage to being a part of this wonderful society here at storm2K is we are way more informed than the media. I mean how many times does a pro met have to come warn you about playing with fire? If the U.S. landfall does occur just considering the raw heat content out there, I am convinced it could be a total disaster.

Yet again, I will post the 1995 hurricane season, a La Nina analog year, to show what could potentially be late season...it just wont be 93L that does it

[gatorcane]

1995 is definitely a good analog year. By the way I'm not about to look past October or November. Really think there could be u.s. threats those months. Maybe even towards the end of this month.

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=Someone suggested a quick poll about which invest ill form first into TS Julia. There is now a poll at Talking tropics forum where you can participate.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109367&p=2063196#p2063196

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1030 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE QUITE LOW...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN

[senorpepr]

Impressive... the 12Z best track has it still on land: 18 mi W of Kolda, Senegal, 76 mi NE of Bissau, Guinea-Bissau, or 100 mi SE of Banjul, The Gambia.

[CrazyC83]

Did this pull a Christine and become a tropical cyclone while still over land?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 93, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 130N, 171W, 20, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[cycloneye]

Looking very good. This image updates every 15 minutes.

[Cyclone1]

It's still here, and that's more than I expected. Officially fully intrigued.

[cycloneye]

Wow,it gained convection as soon it splashed into the water. See image two posts above.

[gatorcane]

Very likely this is our named system not 92l.

[LaBreeze]

After all the wimpy,dead, experts will fail, etc etc etc season talk in early to mid August, it looks like it will be a hyperactive season at the end and the experts will be rewarded by nailing the numbers and ACE.

But the public will see it as an inactive season, due to the few landfalls, and those are the people who matter, in the sense of preparation and awareness.

Better wait for the last half of the season. You're definitely under the gun there in NC. Gulf, too. Development area will soon be shifting westward, increasing chances of Caribbean/U.S. hits. Plenty of heat content in the Caribbean, too.

We should have the start of the cool/cold fronts soon and that'll block most of what "may" get into the GOM.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 400
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[JtSmarts]

Very likely this is our named system not 92l.

Yep this will probably be Julia unless 92 really ramps up tomorrow.