WPAC: FANAPI - Tropical Depression (1011/12W/Inday)

[StormingB81]

It is now all but stationary. Now is the waiting game and see what will happend as some say it will go west some say it will go NE. What will that trough do and what will effect the storm the most.

[KWT]

ECM is quite impressed by this system and develops a fairly strong system out of this in the end....follows the JWTC latest track very well....

I expect this will be our next Typhoon...maybe a fairly strong system at landfall as well, 2/3 type system...we will see!

[StormingB81]

Im just curious where it will go. Half the systems say West..some thing it will go NE...I think though with the ones who say west i would jump on that bandwagon

[KWT]

Yeah its not an easy call at all to know what way this will travel, for now though I'd also side with the westerly idea and JWTC seem to be putting more weight onto that track idea as well...

[StormingB81]

Well also my wife and kids fly in on Friday HOPEFULLY if they get on the military flight..so no delays no problems hopefully! just lets all hope she gets on the plane!

[KWT]

The 00z ECM was certainly the strongest run yet for this system but not all that surprising given this one is clearly developing into a storm right in front of us!

[P.K.]

T2.5 from the JMA at 12Z. I'd expect this to be named in about 20min.

[KWT]

Yeah PK and to be fair I think this does look like a TS now...I just wonder whether we can finally have another system stronger then a cat-1 this time round!

[StormingB81]

Looking at it..It look Like Okinawa can start feeling the effects of the outter bands sometime tomorrow with how big this storm is...

Latest from the News here...

6:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 15: Still a great deal of uncertainty revolves around exactly where and when Tropical Depression 12W will head in the coming hours and days. "It's still pretty early, but we'll keep an eye on it," said Master Sgt. Kelly Gould of Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. No typhoon strike meetings or accelerated Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness are in the conversation at this point. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts now call for 12W to rumble 120 miles southwest of Okinawa at about 10 p.m. Saturday; at this point, Okinawa isn't even within the storm's forecast 40-mph wind bands. However, as with all such unpredictable beasts, that could very easily and very quickly change; PST will keep a sharp eye on this baby.

[StormingB81]

Latest...compared to the last few this one looks fairly large...

[img][/img]

[Chacor]

Um, that appears to show a glitched model run of the GFS. Not a proper forecast.

[StormingB81]

Alrighty I took it out not to confuse people..I think I am going ot stay up for another hour to see what the 11pm shows,.

[KWT]

Yeah quite a broad looking low but it is wrapping around that central point from the looks of image so I expect this one will strengthen...

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1011 FANAPI (1011) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 20.7N 127.5E FAIR
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM NORTHEAST 100NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 21.5N 127.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 23.0N 127.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 181200UTC 24.0N 125.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

11th named storm on Sept 15 is 5.5 storms under average (16.5).

[supercane]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
WTPN31 PGTW 150900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 127.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 127.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.9N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.5N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 23.3N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.8N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 26.6N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 27.9N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 127.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN



854
TCNA21 RJTD 151200
CCAA 15120 47644 NAMELESS 14207 11275 14244 225// 93204=

[supercane]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 127.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 127.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.4N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.0N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 22.6N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.3N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 24.8N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 26.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 27.1N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
335 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN





TPPN10 PGTW 151228 COR

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (SOUTH OF OKINAWA)
B. 15/1132Z
C. 20.7N
D. 127.5E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DT IS 2.0 BASED ON .30 WRAP ON
LOG SPIRAL. MET AND PT ARE 2.5. CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE
SYSTEM IS SMALL, SO DT INDICATES ON THE WEAK SIDE. SO DBO ON PT
AND MET RATHER THAN DT.
COR FOR FINAL-T
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/0802Z 20.7N 127.8E TRMM
15/0828Z 20.7N 127.7E SSMI
15/0901Z 20.9N 127.9E SSMS
15/1009Z 20.6N 127.6E SSMS

BRANDON

[StormingB81]

Tomorrow will be the story of when it will turn and which way it will turn. I have seen track going from west..ti straight over Okinawa to East of Okinawa. Like I said I think tomorrow will tell us where this is going..

[supercane]

The new 15Z update is already up, StormingB81. See my post above. Doesn't look like there's much change, except slightly stronger.

[KWT]

JWTC track looks nearly identical to the 00z ECM even in terms of strength as well...looks reasonable enough to me!

If it doesn't gain enough latitude its a threat to Taiwan...

[StormingB81]

I saw.....I was tping it as you were putting it up so i deleted most of the post...thank you for posting!