ATL: NICOLE - Ex Tropical Storm - Discussion

[sunnyday]

Am I totally wrong in thinking that this invest will not organize into Nicole before reaching S FL?

[HURAKAN]

Potential Nicole could intensify through baroclinic processes before becoming extratropical.

[KWT]

Yeah thats true Aric conditions are good, I just personally think its got too much to do in too little time, even Wilma took a little while to go from this stage to the monster it became.

Either way rainfall is going to be immense, could easily see a foot of rain in many places over the next 72-96hrs in S.Florida IMO.

[GCANE]

Latest ASCAT, about 3 hrs ago:

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah thats true Aric conditions are good, I just personally think its got too much to do in too little time, even Wilma took a little while to go from this stage to the monster it became.

Either way rainfall is going to be immense, could easily see a foot of rain in many places over the next 72-96hrs in S.Florida IMO.

still has 2 days in the carrib.. the moisture will be pumping north starting tomorrow but any organized system at least according the models still has about 48 hours..

[KWT]

Potential Nicole could intensify through baroclinic processes before becoming extratropical.

Certianly is something to keep an eye on, quite often the margin between a system that gets sheared out through that process and one that bombs is quite tight.

[HURAKAN]

Nice image by NASA

[artist]

new video report from the Fl EOC-
http://www.floridadisaster.org/index.asp

[Vortmax1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


It's all looking very frontal/baroclinic in nature to me.
I think the ECM has a grip on this and that's what the 12Z is showing me anyway.
997mb off the SE FL coast sounds about right and good placement.
Most likely more of a storm threat on up the road in the Carolinas and a wet event for South and SE Florida.

[HURAKAN]

Up in NRL

[KWT]

Hurakan, that shows the whole large Gyre very nicely, with the 3 convective masses all in the same very broad rotation.

[btangy]

PREDICT NCAR-GV flight summary today. Mission is wrapping up and we found a bit of surprise...

We found an elongated circulation stretching from the two main convective blobs from 19N, 85W to 18.5N, 80.5W. There is a large region of southwesterlies and westerlies N of Honduras and a very well defined circulation above the boundary layer at 700 mb. There is a very sharp wave or warm front-like axis at 925 mb with strongly veering winds with height along this boundary. Maximum near-surface winds are about 25 knots. This data surprised us as we expected to find a broad circulation, as seen in the models, but it appears something may be quickly developing around the vicinity of these two convective blobs in the NW Caribbean. If the circulation can consolidate some, then Nicole, or "Matthew's daughter" as we're calling it, may be born soon.

We'll be flying this same region tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for the info! Seems like everything is going like expected.

[KWT]

btangy, thats very interesting, I tend to think the NHC have been a little too conservative in thier chances over the last 24hrs but at least we are slowly seeing it increase with time.

[Aric Dunn]

PREDICT NCAR-GV flight summary today. Mission is wrapping up and we found a bit of surprise...

We found an elongated circulation stretching from the two main convective blobs from 19N, 85W to 18.5N, 80.5W. There is a large region of southwesterlies and westerlies N of Honduras and a very well defined circulation above the boundary layer at 700 mb. There is a very sharp wave or warm front-like axis at 925 mb with strongly veering winds with height along this boundary. Maximum near-surface winds are about 25 knots. This data surprised us as we expected to find a broad circulation, as seen in the models, but it appears something may be quickly developing around the vicinity of these two convective blobs in the NW Caribbean. If the circulation can consolidate some, then Nicole, or "Matthew's daughter" as we're calling it, may be born soon.

We'll be flying this same region tomorrow.

yeah thats what myself and other have been seeing from the surface obs and satellite.

[tgenius]

So how soon tomorrow should we expect to see the weather deteriorate into the gloom of rain?

[cpdaman]

btangy is da man.

i wonder what potential exists for this storm to develop into a deep nor'easter for portions of the mid atlantic? There is some of the coolest air of the season over the great lakes by friday....so the interaction may add fuel to the system i would think.

[Aric Dunn]

Its beginning to become more apparent on satellite that there is a weak LLC developing between the Isle of youth and the cayman islands. satellite matches quite well with the surface obs from the Caymans

[cycloneye]

Aric, you think that the focus of the invest should be more east?

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't know guys...to my untrained eye it looks like 84W, 18.5N might be the spot. Let's see if it starts to consolodate there over the next 6-12 hours.

SFT