ATL: OTTO - Post-tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010093012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 485W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Gustywind]

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2010093012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 485W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

That's pretty south

[TheBurn]

[wxman57]

Shows up very well on the MIMIC-TPW loop. Check out the "breaking wave" near 14N/43W. Note that it is now past 45W.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[GCANE]

Strong TUTT to the north at 31N 58W creating strong shear to the north of the LLC.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

GFS shows it moving NW and dissipating in 42 hrs.

Another TUTT is forecast to reform in 72 hrs at 21N 58W with a UL High to its NE.

97L should be to the south or southwest of the TUTT then at that time.

At that point, based on actual positions, 97L's ventilation may begin to be enhanced by the TUTT.

[bvigal]

Good morning!

Nah this will go north of the islands
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_97.gif

Hi Boca! I wouldn't put too much stock in any of the models just yet... the changes in TWO from 2 to 8am indicates we may see some changes in fix points for model runs. Hopefully by this evening we'll have a better picture just what to expect. Even if cyclone development in future, it's primarily a concern for the islands right now. This could be one of those systems that forms with little or no lead time for us, moves into the area and then upper level conditions improve and it bombs and becomes quite nasty. (I think it will be nasty either way.)

[GCANE]

Here's an up-to-date LLC.

Some discrepency with respect to Best Track and still looks more like a wave.

[otowntiger]

Shows up very well on the MIMIC-TPW loop. Check out the "breaking wave" near 14N/43W. Note that it is now past 45W.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

That's cool! So I guess its a wave both literally and figuratively and graphically as depicted in that image. There does appeat to be some twisting going on.

[GCANE]

Very broad and relatively weak on 850mb vorticity

[cycloneye]

GCANE, I suspect the best track position will be changed as until this moment, the 12z model guidance by the Bams has not been released. (Maybe waiting for data from the Predict team plane?)

[Sanibel]

I'd give it another day to see how much it comes together vs the front that is parked over GOM.

[KWT]

Its very broad from the looks of things, I suspect we may well get some development but that may well be someway down the line yet once it gets to the north of the Caribbean....

Most models do show some sort of broad low developing from this region...

[ConvergenceZone]

Its very broad from the looks of things, I suspect we may well get some development but that may well be someway down the line yet once it gets to the north of the Caribbean....

Most models do show some sort of broad low developing from this region...

looks like a US threat down the road.....

[KWT]

Too early to say CZ, we are now nearly in October and troughs could very easily recurve a system at this time of year...but I'd certainly say there is a big threat to the central Caribbean and possibly the Bahamas as well...who knows whether it'll get closer then that its just too early to say.

[ConvergenceZone]

Too early to say CZ, we are now nearly in October and troughs could very easily recurve a system at this time of year...but I'd certainly say there is a big threat to the central Caribbean and possibly the Bahamas as well...who knows whether it'll get closer then that its just too early to say.

Oops sorry KWT, I must have been confusing this with the carib system that the models are saying is going to slam into the US in a few days....I thought this was the one. The ones the models are predicting to his the US must be from a different wave...

[Vortex]

We may get the 2 for 1 special...some of the energy with the front runner heads towards the western carribean and the half other depicted near 45 develops and heads towards the ne carribean/antilles and then recurves out to sea...

[GCANE]

Looks like a cutoff low may form in the SW around Tuesday and stall thru at least Thursday next week.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

[canes04]

11N / 54W looks suspect.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah canes it does look a little bit suspect there.

[plasticup]

This has a long way to go before "Otto"