ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Michael, with the pattern that you see in the models at this time, do you see a possibility that this may be a Lenny type system? I am not talking about the same intensity as poweful Lenny was,but trackwise.

[Ivanhater]

Gator,

The shear never really leaves enough to amount to anything substantial and is even enforced more, with shear values increasing even more. We could always get a kink in the westerlies that are blasting over the Gulf with cut off low or something, but that solution is not supported by any model at this point.

Vortex, I believe Wilma is another case. The trough that was coming to turn Wilma was not in the Gulf yet and was forecast to increase. In this case, the westerlies are already well established over the Gulf and Florida from east to west and not forecast to move. Nothing will get ventilated by the shear with the set-up in place now.

I always enjoy reading your analysis and expectations...Got an early call yet in the longer term?

I've been wrong many times this season

Model support is really low right now so I don't think this particular invest is going to be a problem. For any threat to the U.S we need something in the Caribbean a little later. I think any real threat to the U.S will come from something developing in the Western Caribbean at the end of October into early November. Look at the models to see any pattern change at the end of the month.

As for me, It will around 90 and sunny tomorrow, so I'm hitting up the gorgeous white sandy beaches of NW Florida. I'll save a beer for ya'll!

[GCANE]

Wilma serves as a good reminder of "strong shear" and anything but dissipation...


Snipet from wikipedia:



A powerful eastward-moving mid-level trough across the central United States turned the hurricane northeastward and caused it to gradually accelerate. Vertical wind shear increased as strong upper-level southwesterly flow increased, though in spite of the shear Wilma continued to intensify.[1] Early on October 24, Wilma attained major hurricane status while located about 120 miles (190 km) west-southwest of Key West, Florida. It gradually became better organized, with the large 50 miles (80 km) eye becoming very distinct on satellite and radar imagery. Wilma was able to retain its strength because large eyes in tropical cyclones are more stable and more resistant to vertical wind shear

A couple good hot-towers can do wonders to blast away shear.

Good poleward ventilation is in place.

Vortex vs height has improved much since this morning.

Still waiting to see a core-temp profile. Obviously NHC must have saw a warm-core to call an invest.

Might get a DMAX flare around sunrise.

[Ivanhater]

Michael, with the pattern that you see in the models at this time, do you see a possibility that this may be a Lenny type system? I am not talking about the same intensity as poweful Lenny was,but trackwise.

You have to wonder about that, Luis, coming up as we approach November. The shear values in the Caribbean look great throughout the forecast. I suspect the Caribbean to try to crank out more storms with the supportive Upper level winds and SST values.

[Vortex]

Gator,

The shear never really leaves enough to amount to anything substantial and is even enforced more, with shear values increasing even more. We could always get a kink in the westerlies that are blasting over the Gulf with cut off low or something, but that solution is not supported by any model at this point.

Vortex, I believe Wilma is another case. The trough that was coming to turn Wilma was not in the Gulf yet and was forecast to increase. In this case, the westerlies are already well established over the Gulf and Florida from east to west and not forecast to move. Nothing will get ventilated by the shear with the set-up in place now.

I always enjoy reading your analysis and expectations...Got an early call yet in the longer term?

Model support is really low right now so I don't think this particular invest is going to be a problem. For any threat to the U.S we need something in the Caribbean a little later. I think any real threat to the U.S will come from something developing in the Western Caribbean at the end of October into early November. Look at the models to see any pattern change at the end of the month.

As for me, It will around 90 and sunny tomorrow, so I'm hitting up the gorgeous white sandy beaches of NW Florida. I'll save a beer for ya'll!

I'm right behind you...Got a volleyball game on the beach early myself
I've been wrong many times this season

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Vortex]

looking pretty good there....

[Vortex]

145Z..nice loop


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[Vortex]

My thinking is we should see a slow wnw movement over the next few days as ridging builds to the east in the wake of otto...

[Florida1118]

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[Sanibel]

There's a massive area of dry air just above 98L:

[SweetHomeBamaGOM]

What variables would have to change to slide the model tracks to the west slightly, thereby plotting alabama/fla. panhandle/tampa/orlando cone?


Here look at this. This is the 700-850 steering winds map 18 hours ago--

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm1-6.html

now look at the latest frame (700-850 mb)--

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html



.....it appears that Otto has torn the eastern seaboard trough in half on his way east/northeast. It is considerably warmer here in Northern GOM tonight. The outside temp has gained probably 10-15 degrees since this time last night in comparison and we were in the high 80's yesterday mid-day.

it also appears that a weak high pressure has set up over eastern texas/la http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html . Steering winds for larger storms show the high pressure to indeed be weak--

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

there is a weak high displaced away from texas further south over mexico in the mid-levels--

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html


It also looks like the shear is calming down to the north of this storm now as Otto tears the deep trough apart on his way out. I wonder what all these variables will mean 4 days from now. I think the existence of the high pressure areas will warm the area up but if 98L can get a head of steam it won't encounter as much steering influence from the high pressure zones to the west of her once she becomes Paula--

250-700 mb--

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

200/700 mb--

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html


Notice how the high pressure ridge setting up to the east through most mb levels shows a northern steering influence.....

As far as dry air that may change in a hurry over the Northern GOM as temperatures are quickly rising as the Canadian trough is falling apart now.....

In addition it appears that as Otto heads towards Europe to fishland he is slinging tons of convection to the south right back into the Caribbean. This may allow a moist, conducive environment for 98L in the next few hours and days across the entire GOM area.

Although faint you can already see this heating/convection effect starting in this nws satellite loop--

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html

Notice how along the coastline originating from the two weak high pressure areas over Mexico and Texas/LA are starting to heat up the air and create humidity.


hmmm.....only time will tell.....

[SweetHomeBamaGOM]

Michael, with the pattern that you see in the models at this time, do you see a possibility that this may be a Lenny type system? I am not talking about the same intensity as poweful Lenny was,but trackwise.

Based on the strong high pressure zone to the east of 98L the track Lenny took is extremely unlikely. It will head north as the strong high to the east of it is directing it north on a ridge on all sub-levels of steering winds.

[KWT]

Looks like its going to take a classic track towards the N/NW and then recurve close near 25-27N and at the same time probably quite quickly weakening when that occurs.

There is alot of dry air to the north but then again the system has a decent region of cloud and moisture it can work with as it pulls northwards.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[gatorcane]

Well the models are starting to go crazy with this system. I did peg October 12th as the date for this system.....and have thought all season that October is going to be the month to really watch especially for Florida.

This could be a real problem for south florida if the shear zone north of the nw Caribbean eases up some in about a week.

[wxman57]

This system, should it develop, is not likely going to threaten the northern Gulf Coast. Take a look at the upper level wind forecast across the Gulf for the next 2 weeks. A 60-90 kt westerly wind from the central Gulf northward. Nothing can get through that. Any movement of 98L northward brings it into the westerly jet and turns it NE toward Cuba then probably across the Bahamas. Can't rule out a threat to the southern FL Peninsula, though.

Taking a look at a surface plot, there's definitely a broad surface circulation. I'd put the center a good bit SSW of the NHC estimate, closer to about 12.5N/79.5W. Pressures are 3mb lower down there than up near 14N.

[cycloneye]

wxman57,12z Best Track is more closer to your position.

AL, 98, 2010100912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 795W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[SweetHomeBamaGOM]

Latest

It appears classic banding may be starting. Shear to the north is dropping rapidly. I think this has well started it's trend towards tc status. I think we may have Paula soon.